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Share Price: 171.00
Bid: 170.80
Ask: 171.20
Change: 1.00 (0.59%)
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Open: 169.80
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Are we there yet? U.S. housing market slowdown closer than ever

Tue, 11th Oct 2022 15:58

Most U.S. equity indexes fall, Nasdaq leads losses

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Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.6%

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Crude, bitcoin slip; gold, dollar up

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U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield last ~3.91%

Oct 11 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at

ARE WE THERE YET? U.S. HOUSING MARKET SLOWDOWN CLOSER THAN EVER (1058 EDT/1458 GMT)

Rising mortgage rates and high valuations have started to wane the enthusiasm of U.S. consumers who are now finding home buying to be less affordable, according to a Bank of America Institute report.

The annual growth rate in wire payments to escrow and title companies – that are typically used to pay deposits ahead of closing a housing sale – has been slowing and turned negative in 2022, according to BofA's internal data.

Potential buyers have now found themselves pushed into the rental market to wait out the storm, adding to fast-rising prices in the space.

The slowdown "is weighing on affordability particularly for new buyers, forcing some into the rental market, which then creates further upside pressure on rent prices,” says David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute.

Median rent payments have climbed 8.1% compared to last year for BofA customers, particularly hurting the spending power of lower-income and younger brackets.

Fed policymakers have recently said that faster policy tightening has begun to cool the housing market even as the full effect may take time to appear in the data.

Still, Americans are weathering the economic storm with some buoyancy, helping to sustain spending albeit at a slower pace although BofA expects housing market trends to may be a drag going forward.

In a surprise bright spot, travel demand remained resilient past its summer peak season with credit and debit card spending in foreign countries zooming 29% compared to the same period in 2019.

While total credit and debit card spend at the bank rose 9% in September compared to last year, it was down on a per household basis from last month, squeezed by decades-high inflation.

GERMANY OVERTAKES UK AS THE MOST-SHORTED EUROPEAN MARKET(1021 EDT/1421 GMT)

Germany overtook the United Kingdom to become the most shorted European market as of Sept. 30, according to data and analytics firm SEI Novus.

The aggregated data set, which covers over 30 billion euros in short positions from more than 150 managers, showed Germany's short exposure was 25.47%, followed by UK with 20.2% and Sweden with 11.41%.

"Turbulence in European markets has driven increasing short activity, as investors seek returns in an increasingly tough market and as the economic outlook darkens," Michelle Silsbe, director at SEI Novus, said.

"In September, the UK's political and economic troubles were overshadowed by increasing short interest in Germany, which faces a tough winter as the war in Ukraine and rising energy costs impact the industry."

Industrial stocks (manufacturing) were the most shorted in September, ending the month accounting for 24.47% of total short activity in Europe, up from 22.98% in August, which Silsbe said was in anticipation of weakening demand.

Data last week showed

German industrial production

contracted in August as supply bottlenecks remained and inflation tightened its grip.

Overall registered short positions jumped to 483 on 30th Sept. (up from 452 on 31st August). Bridgewater Associates Inc had the greatest exposure, accounting for 19.32% of registered short positions last month.

Dutch chipmaker ASML Holding NV was the most shorted European stock by size with 3.7%, followed by 3.5% in beer maker C&C Group PLC, 2.2% in German software group SAP SE, 2.1% in Koninklijke Philips NV and 2% in British pest control services provider Rentokil Initial .

The German blue-chip index has lost 23.2% year-to-date, compared with a 20.5% decline in pan-European STOXX 600 index.

Europe's largest economy has lagged as it grapples with rising prospects of a winter recession due to an energy crisis and central banks' determination to tame inflation running at multi-decade highs.

U.S. STOCKS FALL ON EARNINGS, INFLATION ANGST (0955 EDT/1355 GMT)

U.S. stocks dipped on Tuesday as rising Treasury yields and concerns that the Federal Reserve will spark a recession as it aggressively hikes rates weighed on risk appetite.

Macro-economic concerns are expected to be reflected in corporate earnings as companies struggle with higher interest rates, surging inflation and a soaring dollar.

Investors are also cautious this week before consumer price inflation data due on Thursday, which could spark another selloff if it comes in above expectations and increases the likelihood that the Fed will plow ahead with large rate increases in a bid to bring down price pressures.

All major U.S. stock indexes were lower on the day, with the Nasdaq Composite leading losses with a decline, of more than 1% followed by the S&P 500, which dipped 0.8%.

Sector wise the picture also showed broad risk aversion, with consumer staples the only S&P 500 sector in the green. Info tech, financials and communications services were among the leading decliners.

Here is a snapshot of where markets stood in early trading:

SMALL CAPS: WHERE THERE'S SMOKE, THERE MAY ALSO BE VALUE -BofA (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)

2022's bear market has hit small caps hard. The Russell 2000 has fallen about 25% year-to-date, and is down about 31% from its early-November 2021 record close.

With this, however, a BofA Securities research team led by equity and quant strategist, Jill Carey Hall, is noting that the small-cap forward P/E recently fell to 11x, or its lowest level in more than 30 years.

According to BofA, amid September's sell-off, P/E multiples were compressed by 9% across all three size segments. The Russell 2000 forward P/E slid to 10.8x from 11.8x - or its lowest reading since 1990, and 30% below its long-term average since 1985.

Carey Hall adds that the relative forward P/E of the Russell 2000 vs Russell 1000 was little-changed at 0.71x from 0.70x, which is 30% below its historic average of 1.01x and remains at the lowest levels since the Tech Bubble.

For long-term investors, BofA says that today's valuations imply ~13% annualized Russell 2000 returns over the next decade vs ~10% for the Russell 1000.

BofA continues to believe small caps are largely discounting recession risks, and that small cap value still looks like a bargain relative to small-cap growth. Indeed, despite economic concerns, BofA says that sectors with the best estimate revision trends are cyclicals, while consumer discretionary now ranks last.

"Energy continues to rank best in our small cap sector ranking framework (based on relative valuations, revisions, technicals and BofA analyst upgrades-downgrades), where it also remains one of the most historically inexpensive sectors vs. history and vs. large cap peers."

FOR TUESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:

More News
19 May 2023 17:00

LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Europe rises but debt ceiling doubt sours mood

(Alliance News) - London's FTSE 100 rose on Friday, while Frankfurt's DAX 40 hit a record level, though shares ended off session highs as a poor development in US debt ceiling talks kept a lid on optimism as the European trading session drew to a close.

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19 May 2023 12:14

LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: European equities up on hopes of US debt deal

(Alliance News) - Stock prices in London were higher at midday on Friday, with markets upbeat following a positive consumer confidence reading in the UK and amid growing hopes of a debt ceiling deal in the US.

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19 May 2023 08:59

Shorecap puts C&C Group under review after CEO departs, €25m hit

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Shore Capital have put their 'buy' recommendation on Magners cider maker C&C Group under review after the company announced the departure of its CEO and a €25m hit from problems implementing a software upgrade at its Matthew Clark and Bibendum (MCB) unit.

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19 May 2023 08:46

LONDON MARKET OPEN: Stocks rise on US debt optimism; Nikkei shines

(Alliance News) - Stock prices in London were on the up at Friday's open, with sentiment boosted by progress on debt ceiling talks in the US.

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19 May 2023 08:40

TOP NEWS: C&C shares down amid leadership shakeup; delays for upgrade

(Alliance News) - C&C Group PLC on Friday announced a leadership shake-up and said it encountered "significant challenges" in implementing a complex enterprise resource planning system upgrade for the Matthew Clark and Bibendum, or MCB, businesses in Great Britain.

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19 May 2023 07:56

LONDON BRIEFING: Smiths Group raises guidance after strong nine months

(Alliance News) - Stocks in London were called higher on Friday, amid optimism of a resolution to the US debt ceiling impasse.

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17 May 2023 15:46

UK earnings, trading statements calendar - next 7 days

Thursday 18 May 
Brighton Pier Group PLCFull Year Results
BT Group PLCFull Year Results
Burberry Group PLCFull Year Results
ConvaTec Group PLCTrading Statement
easyJet PLCHalf Year Results
Energean PLCTrading Statement
Future PLCHalf Year Results
Helios Towers PLCQ1 Results
International Distributions Services PLCFull Year Results
Investec PLC and LtdFull Year Results
National Grid PLCFull Year Results
Nexus Infrastructure PLCHalf Year Results
Premier Foods PLCFull Year Results
Premier Miton Group PLCFull Year Results
TheWorks.co.uk PLCTrading Statement
Tritax EuroBox PLCHalf Year Results
Tyman PLCTrading Statement
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Friday 19 May 
IQE PLCFull Year Results
Knights Group Holdings PLCTrading Statement
Smiths Group PLCQ3 Results
Titon Holdings PLCHalf Year Results
Tharisa PLCHalf Year Results
Monday 22 May 
Big Yellow Group PLCFull Year Results
Chrysalis Investments LtdTrading Statement
Henderson European Focus Trust PLCHalf Year Results
Kainos Group PLCFull Year Results
Pershing Square Holdings LtdQ1 Results
Ryanair Holdings PLCFull Year Results
Schroder Oriental Income Fund LtdHalf Year Results
Wincanton PLCFull Year Results
Tuesday 23 May 
Assura PLCFull Year Results
Avon Protection PLCHalf Year Results
Benchmark Holdings PLCHalf Year Results
Bytes Technology Group PLCFull Year Results
Caledonian Trust PLCFull Year Results
Calnex Solutions PLCFull Year Results
Cranswick PLCFull Year Results
Engage XR Holdings PLCFull Year Results
FD Technologies PLCFull Year Results
Forterra PLCFull Year Results
Harworth Group PLCTrading Statement
Helical PLCFull Year Results
Hilton Food Group PLCTrading Statement
Ixico PLCHalf Year Results
JPMorgan China Growth & Income PLCHalf Year Results
Pebble Group PLCFull Year Results
Princess Private Equity Holding LtdQ1 Results
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RS Group PLCFull Year Results
Schroder AsiaPacific Fund PLCHalf Year Results
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SSP Group PLCHalf Year Results
Topps Tiles PLCHalf Year Results
Trellus Health PLCFull Year Results
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Watkin Jones PLCHalf Year Results
Wednesday 24 May 
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Bakkavor Group PLCTrading Statement
Bodycote PLCTrading Statement
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Ediston Property Investment Co PLCHalf Year Results
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Esken LtdFull Year Results
Great Portland Estates PLCFull Year Results
Gym Group PLCTrading Statement
HICL Infrastructure PLCFull Year Results
Intertek Group PLCTrading Statement
Kier Group PLCTrading Statement
Kingfisher PLCQ1 Results
LondonMetric Property PLCFull Year Results
Majedie Investments PLCHalf Year Results
Marks & Spencer Group PLCFull Year Results
Mediclinic International PLCFull Year Results
Mortgage Advice Bureau Holdings PLCTrading Statement
N Brown Group PLCFull Year Results
Petershill Partners PLCTrading Statement
Purplebricks Group PLCTrading Statement
Regional REIT LtdTrading Statement
Sabre Insurance Group PLCTrading Statement
Severn Trent PLCFull Year Results
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SSE PLCFull Year Results
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Copyright 2023 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

Read more
23 Mar 2023 09:50

C&C to report stronger annual results, despite hit from strikes

(Alliance News) - Magners owner C&C Group PLC on Thursday gave a largely cheery update about its recent financial year, reiterating its intention to resume dividend payments.

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23 Mar 2023 07:53

C&C sees jump in FY profit, revenue despite 'challenging' backdrop

(Sharecast News) - Bulmers and Magners owner C&C Group said on Thursday that it expects to report a jump in full-year revenues and operating profit despite a challenging backdrop, and to resume dividend payments later in the year.

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16 Jan 2023 09:34

LONDON BROKER RATINGS: SocGen raises Severn Trent to 'buy'

(Alliance News) - The following London-listed shares received analyst recommendations Monday morning:

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13 Jan 2023 17:21

CORRECT: LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Stocks up as investors cheer UK GDP data

(Correcting that sterling strengthened at the London equities close on Friday).

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13 Jan 2023 17:18

UK FTSE 100 at highest since May 2018, boosted by economic data

UK economy unexpectedly grew in November

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13 Jan 2023 17:12

LONDON MARKET CLOSE: Stocks higher as investors cheer UK GDP print

(Alliance News) - Stock prices in London closed near a record high on Friday after the UK economy defied expectations in November by recording marginal growth.

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13 Jan 2023 12:18

LONDON MARKET MIDDAY: FTSE 100 has record in sight; US earnings begin

(Alliance News) - London's FTSE 100 index reached its best level since May 2018 on Friday, and even edged close to a record high, as European markets continued to climb after a report on Thursday showed slower US inflation.

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13 Jan 2023 09:59

TOP NEWS: C&C shares down as trading impacted by rail network strikes

(Alliance News) - C&C Group PLC on Friday saw shares fall as its outlook for the second half of financial 2023 continues to be impacted by cost of living pressures facing customers, and UK rail strikes in the festive period.

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