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MARKET COMMENT: Insurers Lead FTSE To 10-Week Low Ahead Of Fed Minutes

Wed, 09th Jul 2014 15:54

LONDON (Alliance News) - UK stocks closed lower for the third consecutive day Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 at one stage slipping below 6,700 for the first time in ten-weeks as investors found little reason to turn around the negative sentiment that has weighed on equity markets so far this week.

The economic calendar brought very little in the way of new data Wednesday, but indicators that have been released so far this week have been notably softer than the strong US jobs report that sent equity markets around the world to recent highs at the end of last week.

US markets gained a little at the open after the second-quarter earnings season there kicked off on a positive note with aluminium producer Alcoa Inc. beating earnings expectations. However, while a better start on Wall Street lifted UK stocks off their lows of the day, the UK insurance groups weighed heavy on the London market and the blue-chip index still closed at its lowest level since late April.

The FTSE 100 ended the day down 0.3% at 6,718.04, while the FTSE 250 closed down 0.7% at 15,549.63, and the AIM All-Share closed down 0.5% at 778.39.

A slightly better picture within Europe saw both the German DAX 30 and the French CAC 40 close up about 0.4%.

After the European close, stocks in the US are fractionally higher, with the DJIA and the S&P 500 both up over 0.1%.

The insurers held the UK indices back Wednesday, with the FTSE 350 Non-Life Insurance sector index falling 1.4% after car insurance group Admiral warned that a squeeze on margins due to continued pressure on insurance premiums is likely to effect its bottom line going forward, although it left its 2014 expectations unchanged. Admiral, which ended down 3.3%, also surprised investors by announcing that it plans to issue debt for the first time by launching a GBP200 million ten-year bond.

"For a company that has previously prided itself on having no debt, this represents something of a U-turn," said Berenberg analyst Peter Eliot.

Investors took the update negatively and Admiral led the non-life insurers and the FTSE 100 lower, closing down 4.7%. FTSE 250-listed peers esure and Direct Line closed down 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively.

Diversified insurer Aviva also fell heavily Wednesday, closing down 3.6% after setting out some new financial targets at its capital markets day that analysts say aren't ambitious enough. The company wants to double its annual excess cashflow to GBP800 million by the end of 2016 compared with 2013 levels, but only reiterated its deleveraging targets, saying it still wants to reduce the intercompany loan balance to GBP2.2 billion by the end of 2015 and reduce its gross external leverage ration to below 40% of tangible capital over the medium term.

"Poor guidance from Aviva has seen investors dump insurers, hurting the sector as a whole," said Spreadex trader David White.

A numbers of stocks going ex-dividend also provided a drag Wednesday, with Next closing down 2.0%, Carphone Warehouse dropping 2.0%, and Charles Stanley losing 3.3%.

UK house prices fell by 0.6% month-on-month in June, reversing some of the strong 4% rise recorded in May, and missing economists' expectations for a small rise of 0.2%, according to mortgage lender Halifax Wednesday. On an annual basis, Halifax said prices rose by 8.8% in June.

The housebuilders continued their recent slide following the data, as the sector continues to struggle amid uncertainty surrounding the UK housing market and mortgage regulation. FTSE 100 listed Persimmon fell 1.4%, with Bellway closing down 1.2%, and Redrow dropping 1.1%. Barratt Developments gives a trading statement Thursday.

The airlines were among the few blue chip stocks making any notable gains, rebounding somewhat from the heavy sell-off they suffered on Tuesday in the wake of a profit warning from Air France-KLM. The Franco-Dutch carrier's warning was to do with over capacity on long-haul routes, so short-haul, low-cost carrier easyJet may have been oversold Tuesday and ended Wednesday at the top of the FTSE 100, up 3.1%. British Airways parent International Consolidated Airlines Group also recovered a little, ending up 1.4%.

The better start on Wall Street was driven by better-than-expected second-quarter earnings from Alcoa, the company that nearly always kick off each earnings season. The aluminium producer reported earnings of USD0.18 per share on revenue of USD5.84 billion, both measures beating expectations.

The minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting, due at 1900 BST, will likely be the principle driver for the UK markets early on Thursday.

"US stocks were trading higher in early trading after Alcoa got earnings off to a good start overnight but all eyes are set on Fed minutes to give further clues on the timing of the next US rate hike," said CMC Markets market analyst Jasper Lawler.

Also still to come Wednesday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in London at 1900 BST.

On the economic calendar Thursday, UK trade data is released at 0930 BST, and the result of the last Bank of England interest rate meeting will be announced at midday.

In the UK corporate calendar, quarterly statements are due from Halfords Group, Ashmore Group, Hays, Associated British Foods, and Burberry, as well as trading statement from Premier Oil.

By Jon Darby; jondarby@alliancenews.com; @jondarby100

Copyright 2014 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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