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LONDON (Alliance News) - BP PLC said that global energy demand growth will slow over the next 20 years, partly because of enormous improvements in energy efficiency.
The energy major's outlook, released Wednesday, reflects the company's best effort to describe the most likely trajectory of the world's energy systems up until 2035.
The company said that global energy consumption is expected to rise by 41% from 2012 to 2035, a slower rate than the 55% in the previous 23 years, based largely on better energy efficiency in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and developed Asia. This will offset growth in demand from emerging economies.
The outlook said that by 2035 BP expects oil, natural gas and coal to each make up around 27% of the total energy mix and the remaining share to come from nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables.
BP said that, among the fossil fuels, gas is growing the fastest as its increasingly used as a cleaner alternative to coal for power generation, while shale gas is expected to account for 68% of US gas production by 2035.
North American shale gas production growth is expected to slow after 2020 and production from other regions to increase. But in 2035, North America still is expected to account for 71% of world shale gas production.
Renewables are expected to continue to be the fastest growing class of energy, as they rise an average of 6.4% a year until 2035. The renewables share of global electricity production is expected to reach 14% by 2035 and, including biofuels, renewables are expected to have a higher share of primary energy across the planet than nuclear by 2025.
?The Outlook leads us to three big questions: Is there enough energy to meet growing demand? Can we meet demand reliably? And what are the consequences of meeting demand? In other words, is the supply sufficient, secure and sustainable?? BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley said in a statement.
The company said that due to lower growth rates and the introduction of new energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil and renewables, it expects production to be able to keep up.
BP said that it has a mixed but broadly positive expectation for future energy security, with the US on the path towards energy self sufficiency but import dependence in Europe, China and India to increase.
Finally, the company said that it expects global carbon dioxide emissions to rise by 29%, with all of the growth coming from the emerging economies. Emissions growth is expected to slow as the natural gas and renewables market grows, and emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US in the later years of the forecast period.
BP shares were down 0.5% to 490.20 pence Thursday.
By Tom McIvor; tommcivor@alliancenews.com; @TomMcIvor1
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