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UPDATE 3-Standard Life and RBS warn over risks of independent Scotland

Thu, 27th Feb 2014 14:10

* Finance heavyweight makes contingency plans

* RBS warns independence could impact credit ratings

* Political debate escalates in row over finance

By Belinda Goldsmith and Chris Vellacott

LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Insurance and pensionsheavyweight Standard Life became the first major companyto warn it could move partly out of Scotland if Scots split fromthe United Kingdom, fuelling a political row over the financialimpact of independence.

The company, which has been based in Scotland for 189 years,revealed on Thursday that it had a contingency plan to partlymove from Scotland, potentially putting 5,000 jobs at risk.

In a double blow to nationalists, the Royal Bank of Scotland also said a vote for independence would probablysignificantly hit its credit ratings, impacting its costs.

Their comments come as a dispute over currency has ignitedthe debate, with Scottish leader Alex Salmond wanting to sharethe pound in a currency union with the rest of the UnitedKingdom but the major British parties rejecting this plan.

"Standard Life and RBS's comments will have an impact on thedebate as they are totemic institutions that represent a reallyimportant part of the Scottish economy," said Simon Clark, headof the school of economics at the University of Edinburgh.

Scotland is home to the second largest financial servicesindustry in the United Kingdom, accounting for about 150,000jobs.

The Scottish government said the comments backed itsargument that a monetary union was best for businesses bothsides of the border, calling for talks with the UK government.

But the UK government, represented by Treasury ChiefSecretary Danny Alexander, said Standard Life and RBS's forayinto the ring showed the risks of independence becoming clearer.

To date few businesses have publicly stated their plans forwhat they would do if Scotland voted on Sept. 18 to becomeindependent as the likelihood of a "Yes" vote had seemed remote.

SEPARATING BUSINESS FROM POLITICS

But with the nationalists starting to gain ground in thepolls, with about 37 percent support compared to 47 percentopposition to independence, increasing numbers of businessleaders have started to talk about possible financial riskswhile steering clear of the political bullring.

Standard Life said it was setting up registered companies inEngland "as a precautionary measure" into which it couldtransfer operations if Scots ended a 307-year tie to England toensure its competitiveness and interests of its stakeholders.

Chief Executive David Nish said this was necessary due touncertainty over how an independent Scotland would work, such asits currency and if it would join the European Union.

"We have started work to establish additional registeredcompanies to operate outside Scotland into which we couldtransfer parts of our operations if it was necessary to do so,"said Nish, stressing the company was politically neutral.

Standard Life manages more than 244 billion pounds of assetsfor its clients, around 90 percent of whom are outside Scotland.

RBS, once the world's largest bank with 12,000 staff inScotland, said in the risk section of its annual results onThursday that independence could impact its credit ratings andthe fiscal, monetary, legal and regulatory landscape.

But Chief Executive Ross McEwan said the bank had yet tomake plans for a "yes" vote, saying the company was neutral and"won't do anything to raise the temperature of that vote".

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's said an exodus of bankscould create volatility for Scotland's liquidity and investment.

"On the other hand if this were to happen, it could bringbenefits in terms of reducing the size of the Scottish economy'sexternal balance sheet, normalising the size of its financialsector, and reducing contingent liabilities," it said.

"In short, the challenge for Scotland to go it alone wouldbe significant, but not unsurpassable."

"RUNNING FOR COVER"

Ronnie Ludwig, a senior tax adviser in Edinburgh forfinancial advisory firm Saffery Champness, said Standard Lifetaking a public stand about a possible move to England wassignificant and could prompt others to follow suit.

"The lack of certainty over the pound, EU membership and thetax regime, be it corporate or personal, is driving a cultureof, at worst, fear and some are starting to run for cover,"Ludwig told Reuters.

A poll by executive search firm Korn Ferry released thisweek found 65 percent of chairmen of 32 FTSE 100 companies saidit would be bad for business if Scotland became independent.

With the row over the pound taking centre stage, Salmond hasaccused the British parties of bluffing, arguing if there was avote for independence they would enter negotiations as a sharedcurrency was best for both sides. They are major tradingpartners who would want to avoid currency translation costs.

Scotland's Finance Secretary John Swinney maintained theinsistence on Thursday that an independent Scotland would keepthe pound, sidestepping call for details of a Plan B.

"Scotland has a strong and diverse economy and the point ofindependence is to win the powers we need to build on thosestrengths and create a more prosperous and secure economy whichis good for the financial sector and everyone else," he said.

$1 = 0.6011 British pounds)

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