OSLO, May 28 (Reuters) - Thousands of new oil wells and
hundreds of new oilfields will be needed to meet global demand
even if it falls sharply towards the middle of the century,
Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said on Friday.
Its analysis stands in sharp contrast to the conclusions of
the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said last week that
investors should not fund new oil, gas and coal projects if the
world wants to reach net-zero emissions by
mid-century.
The IEA's scenario sees oil demand declining to 24 million
barrels per day (bpd) by 2050, while Rystad sees oil demand
falling to 36 million bpd by the same time.
"Given that output from oil wells declines by an average of
more than 20% per year, the international oil industry will
still need to drill thousands of new wells in existing fields,
as well as developing around 900 new oilfields with collective
resources of about 150 billion barrels of oil," the consultancy
said in a note.
Most of these projects were expected to be redevelopment,
extensions or tie-backs to existing platforms, meaning the
required investments will be moderate as existing infrastructure
is reused, it added.
Rystad said developments were needed to deliver about 10
million bpd in 2030s, as it saw a slower fall in demand than the
IEA, which the consultancy said was overestimating the impact of
biofuel growth and behavioural changes.
Even if oil demand remains at 36 million bpd in 2050, it
should be possible to reach the target of limiting the
temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to
pre-industrial times, it added.
Rystad's analysis is likely to be welcomed by oil companies
and oil producing countries, such as Norway, which have
questioned the IEA's analysis as it undermines the case for the
industry to carry on producing oil in the medium term.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
has said a lack of investments in new projects could lead to
more volatile prices.
(Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis; editing by Barbara Lewis)