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* Exploration spending nearly halves after oil price drop
* Poor discovery record to impact future supplies
* Graphic: http://tmsnrt.rs/244afl9
By Ron Bousso
LONDON, May 23 (Reuters) - Oil discoveries in 2015 fell totheir lowest since 1952 as energy companies slashed explorationbudgets in the wake of the oil price fall, creating a gap formeeting future demand, analysts at Morgan Stanley said onMonday.
The oil and gas industry discovered 2.8 billion barrels ofoil outside the United States last year, the equivalent of onemonth of global consumption, the U.S. bank said, quoting datafrom consultancy Rystad Energy.
Including the United States, where the rapid expansion ofthe onshore shale industry unlocked major resources over thepast decade, global discoveries rose to 12.1 billion figure -but still the lowest since 1952, when the oil industry wasone-seventh of its current size.
Oil discoveries are vital to replace resources, meet still-growing demand and offset the depletion of existingfields.
The sharp drop in oil prices over the past two years has ledcompanies including Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell to sharply reduce budgets, particularly forexploration, where spending fell in 2015 to around 95 billionfrom $168 billion two years earlier, according to MorganStanley.
Despite a big increase in exploration spending since thestart of the decade, when oil demand rapidly rose, there havebeen few major hydrocarbon discoveries, such as Statoil's Johan Sverdrup field off Norway's coast or Eni's giant Zohr gas field off Egypt.
BP last week announced the surprise departure of itsexploration boss, and a shift in its oil search strategy that isfocusing mainly on expanding existing fields rather thanventuring expensively into the unknown.
SHORTAGE
A big increase in new oil fields in recent years and theramp up of Iran's production following the lifting ofinternational sanctions mean that in the short term, the impactof the low exploration record will be limited.
But even under the most modest demand forecasts, driven by adrive to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, whereconsumption will decline to around 86 million barrels per day in2030, only around two thirds of the demand can be met bycurrently producing fields or resources under development,Morgan Stanley said.
"Building this capacity over the next 25 years will requireongoing investment. Our strong suspicion is that this will behigher than what companies are currently spending, even relativeto the 2 Degrees scenario under which demand is falling."
The outlook for exploration remains challenged, the banksaid.
"The return on exploration dollars spent has clearlydeteriorated in recent years. On top of this, oil companiesincreasingly need to consider scenarios for oil demand in whichthere may not be much need for further exploration."
(Editing by William Hardy)
