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Iraq strives to return to big oil output growth

Tue, 19th Nov 2013 16:29

* Swift export growth seen unlikely due to major works

* Gazprom Neft postpones project start-up

* Lack of storage capacity is major bottleneck

* Exports picking up slightly in November

By Peg Mackey and Alex Lawler

LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Iraq's oil industry is poised fora second year of only modest growth in 2014, starting off slowlyas extensive work at a major port curbs exports and red tape andviolence prompt some oil firms to delay projects.

After decades of wars and sanctions, oil output from OPEC'ssecond-biggest producer began a swift revival in 2010 after BigOil signed deals to tap its southern oilfields. Work by thelikes of BP and Exxon Mobil boosted output by600,000 barrels per day (bpd) to top 3 million bpd in 2012.

But infrastructure and security problems, on top of a rowbetween Baghdad and the Kurdistan region, have slowed progressthis year. Output has struggled to exceed 3 million on asustained basis, compared with its end-2013 target of 3.5million bpd.

Russia's Gazprom Neft on Tuesday postponed thestart of production at the Badra oilfield to next year, citingdelays by Iraq in approving tenders, customs clearance, failuresby contractors to deliver work on time and concerns oversecurity of employees and property.

So far in November, Iraq has exported 2.1 million bpd fromits southern terminals and about 300,000 bpd of Kirkuk crudefrom the north, according to shipping data and industry sources.That is up 150,000 bpd from October.

But that growth is likely to slow through the first quarterof 2014 as port work caps exports from the southern oilfields at2.3 million bpd - a decades-high rate reached in August.

"Given these lasting export constraints, it will be next toimpossible to grow production (in the near term)," said a seniorWestern oil executive who declined to be identified.

"There is certainly no short-term upside in exportinfrastructure," another senior oil industry source said.

Iraqi oil officials could not be reached for immediatecomment on the outlook for production and exports.

Officials have said they expect a return to growth in 2014,with an increase of 500,000 bpd pushing up average production to3.5 million bpd, allowing for exports of 2.9 million bpd.

RAMP-UP?

Traders of Iraqi crude also saw little sign of much exportgrowth in the next few months, not least because weather-relateddelays tend to pile up in the first quarter.

"They keep saying they expect a huge ramp-up," said one."But I think 2014 will be like 2013, maybe a little better."

When completed by mid-2014, the port expansion in southernIraq will provide offshore export capacity of 4 million bpd. Much of the work was completed last month.

Still, one of four jetties at the Basra Oil Terminal isexpected to be continuously out of action until the end of 2013,reducing capacity. The final stage of work - the connection oftwo single-point moorings to the loading terminal - couldstretch through March, industry sources said.

The delays at the port pushed southern exports down to 1.8million bpd in September, the lowest in 19 months, but shipmentsrose in October and are on target to edge higher in November.

Maintenance aside, a lack of storage remains a bottleneck inthe south. Storage capacity has been expanded to nearly 7million barrels, which is still far too low, industry sourcessay.

When Basra Light exports are halted or sharply reduced,oilfield production must be cut back too. That happened earlierthis month, when bad weather briefly shut in the BP-operatedRumaila oilfield and others.

Rumaila pumps about 1.4 million bpd, more than a third ofIraq's total output. It was the scene of violent protests lastweek when angry mobs attacked foreign employees of Schlumberger and Baker Hughes at their neighbouring camps.

Iraqi officials have said calm is being restored and thatthe situation at Rumaila is now safe enough for the servicecompanies to get back to work.

For next year, officials expect big output increases fromthe southern oilfields including Majnoon, led by Royal DutchShell, which started up last month after delays.

The field is now pumping more than 200,000 bpd, industrysources said, although it's unclear how much more it will beable to ramp up immediately given the port maintenance and thelack of storage.

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