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(Alliance News) - BP PLC on Monday said global carbon emissions could peak earlier this decade than previously forecasted, arguing the war in Ukraine would push countries to invest in renewable energy and pursue greater energy security.
Carbon emissions under its "new momentum" forecast are called to fall to around 37.8 gigatonnes in 2030, down from around 40.0 gigatonnes. This is also around 4% lower than it expected a year earlier.
However, this is still not enough to reach the 95% drop by 2050 from 2019 levels to achieve net-zero emissions, as the latest forecast sees emissions only falling 30% by 2050.
The London-based oil major previously said in its energy outlook a year earlier that global carbon emissions would peak in the late 2020s, but said this could occur earlier as oil and gas demand falls long-term in favour of renewables.
It forecasted oil and gas demand in 2035 to fall from levels forecast in 2022, expecting renewable energy investment to increase amid global energy security concerns from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In its 2023 energy outlook update, it said oil demand for 2035 would fall by around 5% compared to its 2035 projection in 2022, alongside natural gas falling by around 6%.
Meanwhile, it upgraded renewables demand by around 5%, while nuclear was up 2%.
It said the resulting global energy shortages from the war in Ukraine "seem likely to have a material and lasting impact on the energy system".
"The events of the past year have served as a reminder to us all that this transition also needs to take account of the security and affordability of energy," said Spencer Dale, chief economist at BP.
"Together these three dimensions of the energy system – security, affordability, and sustainability – make up the energy trilemma. Any successful and enduring energy transition needs to address all three elements of the trilemma."
Dale continued that countries now wish to reduce their dependency on imported energy towards more domestically produced energy, as a result of energy shortages and inflationary pressures exposure.
He explained that imported energy markets are dominated by fossil fuels, while plans to procure energy more locally would likely come from renewables.
"The war is likely to accelerate the pace of the energy transition," Dale added, with BP forecasting global carbon emissions could peak earlier this decade than it previously suggested.
On Thursday last week, BP jointly bid into New York's third offshore wind solicitation with Equinor to the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority.
BP said, Beacon Wind 2 is capable of producing 1,360 megawatts of offshore wind energy and has the potential to power approximately one million New York homes.
This would generate more than USD11 billion in new economic activity in the state over the project lifecycle and create thousands of jobs, it added.
Shares in BP were up 0.8% to 493.05 pence each in London on Monday morning.
By Greg Rosenvinge, Alliance News reporter
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