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(Updates with details about tropical depression) By Susan Daker Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Oil spill responders need to begin taking apart BP PLC's (BP, BP.LN) oil-collection system about five days before the arrival of tropical storm-force winds at the Deepwater Horizon site, the U.S. Coast Guard said Friday. The National Hurricane Center said late Friday that a weather system near Honduras has become a tropical depression likely to reach Mexico's Yucatan peninsula late Saturday. The depression, which currently has maximum wind speeds of 35 miles per hour, is expected to become a tropical storm Friday night or Saturday. A NHC three-day forecast puts the cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. As the tropical depression moves northwest, responders may not have much leeway, meteorologists say. "One of the challenges with trying to give people advance notice of the onset of tropical storm-force winds is that you don't always have the luxury of time, because storms can form on our doorstep. It may be that this system would form and potentially get to the northern Gulf of Mexico (near the well) in less than five days from now," said Rick Knabb, the tropical weather expert at The Weather Channel. Given the hurricane response timeline that the spill's federal response commander, Adm. Thad Allen, laid out Friday in a news conference and the unpredictability of tropical storms, just about any storm threat to the Gulf of Mexico could force BP to evacuate--posing a major and constant challenge to responders' ability to contain the oil gushing from the well. This summer's hurricane season, forecast to be more active than usual, is expected to have 14 to 23 named storms and eight to 14 hurricanes. Allen said the hurricane plan would go into effect about 120 hours before the advent of gale-force winds, which he described as 40 knots, which is about 46 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center in Miami has set the minimum threshold for a tropical storm at 39 miles per hour. A storm would disrupt the effort to contain the well for at least 14 days including time before and after the bad weather, Allen said. Several ships on site, including the vessels that are drilling relief wells to permanently kill the spill, would leave, and about 1,800 workers would be evacuated. Some weather forecasters believe the first named storm of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season, Alex, will develop over the weekend and move into the southwestern portions of the Gulf of Mexico by Monday or Tuesday. "Of course we are watching that [storm] very closely right now," Allen said. The scientific models show the storm taking a variety of tracks, some away from the well and toward Mexico, but others show it moving toward Louisiana. Nevertheless, meteorologists maintain that the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures making it ripe for hurricane formation. "I can not emphasize enough that this storm will pose a serious threat to the all important efforts required to contain the country's worst oil spill disaster in history along with affecting operations across a large portion of the Gulf's energy production region," said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics. Allen said the spill responders will act "out of an abundance of caution," and could move "in advance of a declaration" from weather authorities about the storm's strength. The spill team would pull the cap off of the Macondo well and disconnect the Discoverer Enterprise, the main collection ship, about 114 hours before the prediction that gale-force winds could reach the well. The cap and the Discoverer Enterprise have been allowing BP to collect up to 18,000 barrels of oil a day since early June. The second collection ship on the scene, the Q4000, has more flexibility and wouldn't have to cease operations until 56 hours before the arrival of bad weather, Allen said. The Q4000 has been flaring off up to 10,000 barrels of oil a day since mid-June. Federal and independent scientists estimate that the well is gushing about 35,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil a day. Once both ships shut down, most, if not all of the oil would flow into the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. A storm would also halt the drilling of relief wells, one of which is zeroing in on killing the leak, Allen said. Under normal conditions, that relief well could be complete by the second week of August, but any storm could delay its completion by weeks. The storm could become disorganized and lose strength if it meets with the Yucatan Peninsula, as is predicted by the NHC, but that doesn't preclude it from reorganizing over what is known as the "high octane," waters of the Gulf of Mexico. If the storm gains strength and tracks toward the Texas and Louisiana coasts, it will not only disrupt efforts to contain the Macondo well but it could also shut in production at other oil and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico. -By Susan Daker, Dow Jones Newswires; (713) 547-9208; susan.daker@dowjones.com (Cassandra Sweet in San Francisco contributed to this article) (END) Dow Jones Newswires June 25, 2010 19:07 ET (23:07 GMT)