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DIVIDEND PAYOUTS UNSCATHED BY ECONOMIC WOES SO FAR (1120 GMT)
Dividend payments by S&P 500 firms are expected to rise by more than 10% this year, which would set a new record payment, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, indicating the payouts have remained unscathed despite fears of a recession.
"The current working view for S&P 500 dividends continues to be positive, with growth expected, even as the economy slows and interest rates rise," says S&P Dow Jones Indices senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt.
The S&P 500 annual indicated dividend rate reached $550 billion for the first time on July 22.
Microsoft Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp and Apple Inc are among the top three with the highest current annual indicated dividend payment rate, Silverblatt notes.
The appeal of dividend payers has increased this year, as an aggressive Federal Reserve and inflation worries combine to batter stocks and bonds.
The S&P 500 dividend aristocrats index, which tracks companies that have increased dividends annually for the past 25 years, has fallen nearly 9% so far in 2022, far outperforming the S&P 500's near 17% fall.
(Medha Singh)
GERMAN GAS WOES CLOUD EUROPEAN INFLATION OUTLOOK (1017 GMT)
Developments in Germany around the supply and price of gas are clouding the outlook for European inflation, and will be key in predicting the timing and severity of a potential recession.
The next crucial signal will be shown in fresh data on European inflation released on Friday, however this reading will unlikely reflect the impact of latest moves by the German government as it grapples with strangled supply of Russian natural gas.
Last week Germany entered phase 2 of its three-stage emergency gas plan, and stepped in to rescue Uniper .
Economists at UBS predict a reading of 8.6% for euro zone inflation later this week, stable from the previous month.
"Following a rate of 8.6% y/y in July, we anticipate inflation to remain at that level in August, before rising to a peak of 9.1% y/y (prev. 9.0%) in September," the UBS economists said in a note.
Their 2022 average forecast is unchanged at 7.7%, but they stress that this does not include the impact of likely increase in German gas prices.
"As we have previously flagged, in an extreme scenario of a complete convergence of retail and wholesale gas prices, this could add as much as c. 8pp to German inflation."
However they think this is an unlikely scenario for political reasons, as it will probably be cushioned by additional support measures.
Still the risk to energy prices and inflation is skewed to the upside, and if Europe were forced to ration gas, inflation could peak around 12% or higher, the UBS economists said.
Danske Bank today revised down its growth expectations for German GDP to 1% for 2022, from 1.4% previously, saying that inflation will linger for longer amid higher energy prices.
"We think the German recession will also have adverse spill-overs to other euro area countries," Danske analysts said in a note.
RECESSION FEARS, EARNINGS HIT EUROPEAN STOCKS (0745 GMT)
European shares slide amid growth worries and expectations the U.S. Fed will hike rates sharply later this week.
A mixed batch of earnings results is also weighing on stocks.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index is 0.3% lower, with oil producers leading losses as crude prices fell.
In terms of single stocks, Dutch medical equipment maker Philips is the worse performer, down more than 10% after reporting a worse-than-expected drop in second-quarter core earnings, citing supply shortages and lockdowns in China.
(Joice Alves)
BLUE MONDAY (0722 GMT)
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday a recession is not inevitable but most economic data has been pointing the other way, including last week's dismal PMI readings in the United States and Europe.
Data or policymakers -- it's clear which of them markets believe.
Rate-sensitive short-dated bond maturities rallied last week while latest data showed speculators cutting bearish positions on short-dated Treasury futures. Interest rate futures now see the Fed funds rate peaking in January at about 3.38% -- Wednesday's projected 75 basis-point move will already take rates to 2.5%.
As for stocks, the easing in rate-hike bets lifted equity markets last week but the mood is sour on Monday for global stocks (down 0.2%) as well as Wall Street futures .
Focus now is likely to train on company earnings, with Europe's Q2 season kicking off in earnest and more tech mega-giants due to report stateside. Monday's crop of results saw Ryanair post a return to profit, while Dutch medical equipment maker Philips blamed supply shortages and Chinese lockdowns for its earnings drop.
Still some European companies, especially luxury purveyors such as LVMH and Hermes may find a silver lining in the euro's 10% year-to-date decline against the dollar with double-digit sales growth, partly offsetting the China effect.
The reverse is true across the Atlantic where companies are increasingly bemoaning dollar strength; Morgan Stanley estimates each percentage-point of year-on-year increase in the dollar index cuts S&P 500 earnings growth by 0.5 percentage points .
But the poor global growth outlook implies the dollar will stay strong for a while yet. After this week's Fed statement, that may hinge on U.S. inflation easing or some truly horrendous economic growth prints. Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday: -WTO meeting until July 26 -Bank of Japan brings in less dovish board member -German industry cuts production due to high energy prices -survey -July German IFO business sentiment survey -U.S. 2-year Treasury auction -Europe Earnings: Ryanair, Vodafone, Christian Dior -U.S. Earnings: Newmont Mining Corp, Whirlpool, Logitech
(Sujata Rao)
EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN LOWER ON RECESSION FEARS, BIG EARNINGS WEEK AHEAD (0630 GMT)
European stocks are seen opening in negative territory tracking Asian shares lower as worries about a global economic downturn sapped investors' risk appetite.
As a big week for corporate results kicks in, the pan-European STOXX 600 is seeing pausing after having its best weekly gains since May.
Swiss bank Julius Baer says it was hit by market downturn during first half of year. Philips misses Q2 forecasts, cites supply chain issues and China lockdowns.
Traders are also bracing for a for a 75-basis-point (bp) U.S. interest rate hike this week as data points to a weakening global economy.
European STOXX50, Dax and FTSE futures are trading down around 0.5%.
(Joice Alves)
