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Share Price: 201.00
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UPDATE 1-Barclays cuts oil price forecast, top analyst leaves

Wed, 03rd Apr 2013 15:54

* Last oil price bull to review forecast

* Head of commodities research leaves, sources say (Adds quotes, top analyst leaving)

By Dmitry Zhdannikov and Naveen Arul

LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - Barclays steeply cutits oil price forecasts on Wednesday, becoming the last of thebig banks active in commodities to abandon its bullish stance inthe face of soaring U.S. oil output and sluggish global demand.

The cut from Barclays, which has for several years predictedan oil rally as demand outpaced supply, came as the bank'slong-serving head of commodities research, Paul Horsnell, leftthe company, two sources familiar with the development said.

Barclays declined to comment on changes in personnel.

"The global supply system is poised to accommodate theexpected growth in global demand without significant stress,"Barclays analysts said in a note.

The note added that an early resolution of the Iraniansituation and recovery in its export volumes, a slowing ofChina's recovery or an interruption to the nascent recovery ofU.S. oil demand could all force down the price of oil.

Barclays was the only bank in the last Reuters monthly poll to maintain its 2013 Brent price forecast above $120 abarrel after rivals including Goldman Sachs, MorganStanley and Citi all cut their bullish predictionsin recent months.

On Wednesday Barclays said it now saw Brent averaging $112 a barrel in 2013, down from $125, and U.S. crudeWTI averaging $95 against its previous forecast of $108.

That leaves Germany's Commerzbank, with its $119per barrel prediction for 2013, and BNP Paribas, at$115, as an unusual pair of oil price bulls.

The big U.S, banks are usually the most upbeat on oilprices, but Goldman steeply cut its forecasts last October,calling an end to the oil price super-cycle and reversing yearsof bullish recommendations. It cited a rise in unconventionaloil supplies in the United States and Canada.

S&P Goldman Sachs Commodities Index has brought investorsweak returns in the past two years and the biggest banks havereduced their exposure to commodities, with trading revenueshalving to $7 billion from their peak five years ago.

Barclays said that range-trading in oil will continue butsaid it we would caution against becoming overly bearish aboutthe oil price.

"OPEC's ability to cushion unforeseen supply disruptionremains strictly limited," it said.

It also said it expected the Israeli government to startcalling for tougher international action against Tehran if theWest failed to reach a deal over Iran's nuclear programme. (Editing by David Goodman)

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