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UK MIDDAY BRIEFING: Scottish Vote Remains Too Close To Call

Wed, 17th Sep 2014 11:49

LONDON (Alliance News) - The result of the Scottish independence referendum remains too close to call, the results of the most recent polls showed Wednesday, as pro-union and pro-independence campaigns made their finals appeals the day before voters decide whether to end more than 300 years of union with the rest of the UK.

Three separate opinion polls - by ICM, Survation and Opinium - published late Tuesday showed that 52% of Scots were against independence, while 48% were in favour.

In an open letter to voters, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said the referendum represented "the greatest, most empowering moment any of us will ever have." The leader of the devolved government in Edinburgh asked voters to ignore what he said were "increasingly desperate and absurd scare stories" spread by Downing Street and to trust in themselves.

Alistair Darling, the leader of the pro-union Better Together campaign, insisted a "yes" vote would be a "tragedy" and said there had been a lot of "nastiness" in the "yes" campaign.

Fast-growing video security systems company IndigoVision Group, which is based in Edinburgh, said it had benefited from being British as it grew quickly across the world, and has plans in place if the Scottish electorate decide to vote to leave the union. It didn't detail the plans.

"We are in no doubt that IndigoVision, with a world leading range of products utilised in key security installations globally, benefits from being recognised the world over as British, and has the invaluable support of the superb network of British embassies and trade organisations overseas," it said.

The Bank of England's policymakers remained 7-2 split on the rate decision in September as Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale again sought to raise the key rate by 25 basis points. Analysts said the fact the vote hadn't narrowed further meant that expectations for a first interest rate increase were unmoved from the second quarter of 2015.

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Markets: UK equities are higher after the Bank of England meeting minutes revealed a repeat of last month's monetary policy committee vote, with Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale voting for an increase in interest rate, versus seven votes against.

Futures trading indicates a mixed open in the US, with the DJIA expected to open fractionally higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq a touch lower. The markets are expected to be muted ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement, due after the European equity markets close.

FTSE 100: up 0.1% at 6,798.60
FTSE 250: up 0.5% at 15,668.35
AIM ALL-SHARE: down 0.2% at 764.12
GBP-USD: up at 1.6308
EUR-USD: flat at 1.2957
GOLD: up at USD1,236.51 an ounce
OIL (Brent): up at USD99.06 a barrel
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Other Top UK Corporate News
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British Sky Broadcasting Group's plan to buy the rest of Sky Deutschland AG hit a snag, as Sky Deutschland's board members said that they will not recommend BSkyB's EUR6.75 per share bid. Sky Deutschland said in a statement that it has concluded that the offer price "does not reflect the full potential and thus intrinsic value of the business." The board said that it operates in an under-developed market, and the full realisation of its potential is subject to the success of a business plan over a long period of time "with inherent uncertainty."
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Smiths Group's medical and detection units continued to weigh on its results and it was hit hard by the strength of sterling. It posted a pretax profit of GBP302.0 million in the recent financial year, down from GBP395.7 million the year before, as revenue fell to GBP2.95 billion from GBP3.11 billion, and exceptional and amortisation charges rose, partly due to restructuring costs. Revenue at John Crane, Smiths Interconnect and Flex-Tek rose at constant currency, but this was offset by further declines in Smiths Medical and Smiths Detection which are still being hit by government budget cuts. The group increased its full year dividend by 1.9%, even though it remains cautious about the outlook for the medical and detection units.
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US oil group ConocoPhillips Co has put its stake in the Clair oilfield up for sale, sparking a race to buy a part of one of Scotland's most valuable oilfields, The Times reported. Conoco has hired banks to sell the 24% stake in the field, west of Shetland, which could fetch between GBP1.2 billion and GBP1.8 billion, the paper said. The field is operated by BP, which owns a 28.6% stake, and holds an estimated eight million barrels of oil, making it one of the largest fields in Europe. Royal Dutch Shell, which already owns 28% of the field, is reportedly likely to be interested in upping its stake in the field.
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Barclays, HSBC Holdings and Royal Bank of Scotland Group have been named among thirteen banks facing allegations of fraud and a claim for USD1.15 billion in damages in the US over the sale of mortgage bonds during the financial crisis, The Guardian reported. The accusations have been made in the state of Virginia, with attorney general Mark Herring alleging the banks named in the suit packaged up risky home loans into the bonds before selling them to the Virginia Retirement System as, primarily, top-quality AAA-rated bonds, the paper said.
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The New York attorney general Tuesday called for the rejection of a move by Barclays for the dismissal of the state's lawsuit alleging fraud in connection with how the bank operated its dark pool trading platform, Reuters has reported. According to the report, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman targeted Barclays' argument that the lawsuit falls outside the Martin Act.
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Two mobile operators who contributed to the fall of Phones 4U into administration by withdrawing their business from the retailer in recent weeks are understood to be in talks with administrators to buy portions of the company, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. Vodafone Group and EE have each held talks with the administrator about buying parts of the Phones 4U business, including some stores, staff and stock in the UK, the FT said. The moves may provide an escape route for thousands of staff who are set to lose their jobs. It also comes on the back of talks being held by Dixons Carphone to offer jobs to 800 Phones 4U staff working in concessions in its own stores. Dixons Carphone may also reportedly be interested in buying some of the stores and acquiring some of Phones 4U's brands, the FT said.
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Imagination Technologies Group expressed confidence that its progress will continue in line with its expectations, forecasting a heavier second half weighting than usual due to new product shipments, such as those with Apple Inc later in the year. The company said that in the period from May 1 to Tuesday, it had seen encouraging activity in licensing, across all three main intellectual property product areas and its customer base. In the quarter to end-June, royalty revenues were in line with expectations, as it saw growth from a number partners, as well as a short-term hit from product transitions.
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Sports and fashion chain JD Sports Fashion sported an impressive increase in its pretax profit for the first half of its financial year, as strong revenue growth was driven by another strong sales performance from its core UK sportswear business. The sportswear, outdoor clothing and fashion retailer reported a pretax profit of GBP16.5 million for the six months to August 3, up from only GBP6.1 million a year earlier. Its profit was driven by a 27% increase in revenue to GBP721.5 million, up from GBP567.4 million last year, after strong sportswear sales continued, and it was given a much-welcome boost by the build up to the football World Cup.
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Dignity is proposing to return GBP54 million to shareholders as part of a debt restructuring proposal aimed at cutting its annual debt servicing costs. The company said its overall balance sheet liability would increase to GBP580 million under the proposal to restructure its Class A and B secured notes, but said its debt service costs would fall to GBP34 million a year, from GBP40 million at present.
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IG Group Holdings said net trading revenue - trading revenue excluding interest on segregated client funds and net of introducing broker commissions - fell to GBP85.6 million in the three months ended August 31, from GBP93.6 million in the corresponding period last year. The group reported declines across all of its geographic regions, amid quiet financial markets and continued weakness in foreign exchange activity.
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Packaging maker DS Smith said it has made good progress since the start of its financial year on May 1, with like-for-like corrugated box volumes improving in all operating regions. It said growth was ahead year-on-year and also ahead of its medium-term targets.
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AIM Movers
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Mariana Resources is a big gainer after it secured up to USD6 million in financing to back the growth of its South American exploration portfolio. Cenkos Securities is doing well after it doubled its interim dividend and said it is evaluating further ways of making returns to shareholders, particularly through share buy-backs, as it reported a significant jump in first-half pretax profit due to a buoyant UK equities market. Paternoster Resources is up after it said it would make an investment in West Africa-focused oil explorer Elephant Oil Ltd, giving it exposure to the West Africa Transform Margin. It will buy a 5.5% stake for GBP300,000. Agriterra is also up after it finally reached a settlement regarding it legacy oil claims in South Sudan and will receive USD5.6 million in cash. Connemara Mining Company is up after its loss narrowed in the first half of the year. W Resources is another gainer after the drilling programme at the Tarouca project in Portugal was completed, and further significant high-grade tungsten mineralisation found. Leni Gas & Oil is up after it reported encouraging initial flow results from its Goudron field in Trinidad. Pennant International is up after its Canadian subsidiary won a services consulting contract, worth up to CAD7.9 million initially, from Public Works and Government Services Canada. Bellzone Mining shares have taken a hit after it said it remains in talks on securing funding, but is running out of time to secure a deal. ServicePower Technologies is also down after it swung to a pretax loss in the first half as revenue declined to GBP6.2 million from GBP7.3 million.
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Top Economics And General
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The UK unemployment rate continued to fall in July, to the lowest since late 2008, data from the Office for National Statistics showed. The ILO jobless rate fell to 6.2% in May to July, down from 6.6% in February to April. The rate was seen at 6.3%. There were 2.02 million unemployed people, down 146,000 from February to April. The claimant count rate fell to 2.9% in August from 3% in July. The number of people claiming jobseekers' allowances declined by 37,200 from July to 966,500 in August. It was forecast to fall by 30,000.
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Eurozone inflation remained stable at 0.4% in August, final data from Eurostat showed. Monthly inflation was 0.1%. The statistical office earlier estimated an annual rate of 0.3% for August. Inflation continues to stay below the European Central Bank's target of 'below but close to 2%'. Core inflation that excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose marginally to 0.9% from 0.8% in July.
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China's central bank is injecting CNY500 billion (about USD81 billion) into the nation's five major state-run commercial banks to bolster flagging economic growth, reports said. The People's Bank of China will release CNY100 billion to each bank to boost liquidity, the sina.com website quoted banking analyst Qiu Guanhua of Guotai Junan Securities as saying. The central bank began releasing the funds on Tuesday under its standing lending facility, a liquidity support tool, for a three-month period, it said. The central bank has not confirmed the reports.
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The parliaments of Ukraine and the EU ratified a landmark political and free trade deal Tuesday. The deal paves the way for deeper political relations between the EU and Ukraine and grants the country tariff-free access to the bloc's giant market. Moscow has long been critical of the agreement, amid concerns that the trade pact could hurt the Russian economy. In a bid to further peace in the region, the Ukrainian Parliament approved legislation granting greater autonomy to the separatist-held eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which is a key part of the Kiev government's ceasefire deal with rebels.
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The United Nations and the US issued dire warnings about the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, as the US announced a major increase Tuesday in its response to the epidemic. West African countries at the centre of the epidemic could become collapsed states, the UN warned, as US President Barack Obama said the epidemic was spiralling out of control and would get worse before it gets better.
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The United Nations has brokered a deal between Israel and the Palestinian Authority that would allow the reconstruction of the war-ravaged Gaza Strip with UN monitors overseeing the process, a senior UN official said Tuesday. The deal will "enable work at the scale required in the strip, involving the private sector in Gaza and giving a lead role to the Palestinian Authority in the reconstruction effort," Robert Serry, the UN's Middle East envoy, told a Security Council meeting. Israel only allows imports of most consumer goods to Gaza but strictly controls the inflow of construction materials to Gaza due to concerns that such materials could be diverted by Hamas militants for building military installations such as attack tunnels.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times British Summer Time)

13:30 US Consumer Price Index
13:30 US Current Account
15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index
15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks change
19:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision
19:00 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
19:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
19:30 US Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference
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Thursday's Key UK Corporate Events

Swallowfield - Full Year Results
Safestyle UK - Half Year Results
WANdisco - Half Year Results
Card Factory - Half Year Results
Premier Farnell - Half Year Results
Sinclair IS Pharma - Full Year Results
Kier Group - Half Year Results
French Connection Group - Half Year Results
Booker Group - Trading Statement
Northgate - Interim Management Statement
Wilmington Group - Full Year Results
FW Thorpe - Full Year Results
Trifast - Trading Statement
Merlin Entertainments - Interim Management Statement
Just Retirement Group - Full Year Results
Petra Diamonds - Half Year Results
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Thursday's Key Economic Events (all times British Summer Time)

All Day G20 Meeting
All Day UK Scottish independence referendum
00:50 Japan Exports, Imports
02:30 China House Price Index
07:35 Japan Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
09:30 UK Retail Sales
11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Survey
13:30 US Housing Starts
13:30 US Jobless Claims
15:00 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
15:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage change
20:00 US American Petroleum Institute Monthly Report
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Contact: +44 203 668 7440; newsroom@alliancenews.com; @AllNewsTeam

Copyright 2014 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

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UK shareholder meetings calendar - next 7 days

Friday 3 May 
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Monday 6 May 
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Tuesday 7 May 
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Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
  
A full 21-day events calendar is provided each day with a subscription to Alliance News UK Professional.
  
Copyright 2024 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

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