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A PIVOT IN EURO SENSITIVITY (0931 GMT)
A change in euro sensitivity to news flow is probably underway right now while the single currency rises above parity against the U.S. dollar.
“It has been several weeks in the making, but it does now seem that EUR/USD is responding to the lower natural gas prices and the improvement in the terms of trade position,” ING analysts said.
The single currency rose above parity today, having crossed $0.99 on Tuesday, after euro zone and U.S. economic data.
“At first glance, this seems to constitute an over-reaction, in particular as this is second-tier data, but a different interpretation is also possible,” Commerzbank analysts say referring to yesterday’s rise.
“The market now reacts with great sensitivity to any signs that we might be about to see a fundamental reversal,” they add.
The logic is that after months of underperformance and with a Federal Reserve that may be ready to switch down a gear in its tightening path, the single currency might be showing some strength.
The mild weather in Europe, the significant fall in energy prices and the fiscal support to the economy will help too, as the euro area is highly exposed to surging gas prices.
However, Commerzbank reckons it’s too early to call this recent rally in the euro a sustainable reversal, and there are still several factors that could result in a deterioration in euro sentiment.
BREWERS LOSE SOME FIZZ, FISH FARMERS UP (0810 GMT)
The pan-European STOXX 600 is up 0.3%, supported by some better-than-expected Q3 results and by a bounce in Norwegian fish-farmer stocks.
Europe's construction and materials index is leading the pack, up 1.4% after Swedish builder Skanska delivered a consensus-beating operating profit in Q3.
Norwegian fish farmers are outperforming with shares in Salmar and Mowi gaining 5% and 3.3%, with no reported reasons.
However, half of STOXX sectors started the day in negative territory with food and tech stocks among the biggest laggards. Brewers Heineken and Carlsberg are dragging down the STOXX food and beverage index, which is down 1.2% after Heineken, the world's second-largest brewery, reported a lower-than-expected rise in beer sales during the third quarter.
Disappointing results from Wall Street giants Google-owner Alphabet and Microsoft and a warning from Dutch semiconductor supplier ASM added to concerns about slowing economic growth, which is weighing down European tech stocks
ASM International shares are down 6.6%, after the company said it expected new U.S. export restrictions to weigh heavily on its sales in China.
DANCING IN THE DARK (0700 GMT)
The Federal Reserve's blackout period has markets grasping at straws -- home prices, sentiment indicators, Microsoft's cloudy earnings and any little signs of economic weakness --and pretending the Fed will go easier on future tightening.
There's an element of complacency in the rally. Economists polled by Reuters said the central bank should not pause until inflation gets down to around half its current level. But it's also that markets "ain't nothin' but tired" of buying the dollar and selling everything else for months.
Wednesday has seen even Asian markets join the rebound on Wall Street, brushing aside fears around China and an empowered President Xi Jinping's plans, as rising U.S. Treasuries lift all other markets.
The respite rally in Japanese government bonds suggests the Bank of Japan may not need to intervene again in the yen for now, while it heads off on Thursday to debate policy. China's yuan is anchored after state banks sold dollars in onshore and offshore markets during London trading hours the previous day.
The glass half-full view is also taking the Rishi Sunak-Jeremy Hunt duo at the helm in Britain as positive, and the European Central Bank's near-certain 75bps rate rise on Thursday as just another step towards neutral rates, given energy prices are falling.
That's risky, as Australian markets found out this morning after inflation raced to 32-year highs and called into question the RBA's possibly premature decision to go slower with rate hikes.
Europe woke up to Standard Chartered Bank's surprisingly good results, just a day after HSBC disappointed.
But the one bankers are watching is Credit Suisse, which reports earnings but also a much-speculated strategic overhaul on Thursday.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada's key policy interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report - 1400 GMT
EARNINGS: Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank , Kraft Heinz, Twitter Inc
FUTURES SLIP ON ECONOMY FEARS, STOXX RESULTS OFFER SUPPORT (0640 GMT)
European futures are pointing to a start of the day in the red for stocks across the region impacted by disappointing earnings results in the U.S. amid fears of an economic slowdown in the U.S.
European futures are down between 0.1% and 0.4%, while U.S. futures are falling between 1% and 2% after Google-owner Alphabet posted on Tuesday softer-than-expected ad sales and Microsoft missed expected revenue forecasts.
In Europe, a batch of better-than-expected earnings is offering some support: Mercedes-Benz tripled pre-pandemic Q3 cars earnings and raised its outlook, Reckitt's quarterly sales were boosted by price rises, while Barclays reported its third quarter profit rose slightly from the previous year, beating market expectations.
Investors are also watching how aggressively will central banks raise rates. Traders and economists predict a 75 basis point (bps) increase from the ECB on Thursday. The U.S. Fed is also expected to raise by the same amount next Wednesday.
In England, eyes are on politics. Domestic focused stocks recovered on Tuesday after Rishi Sunak became Britain's third prime minister in two months and pledged to lead the country out of a profound economic crisis and rebuild trust in politics.