Last checked at 
* European shares slip
* Wall Street rose overnight
* UK's Sunak maps out next moves in recovery plan
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts Joice Alves (joice.alves@thomsonreuters.com) and
Julien Ponthus (julien.ponthus@thomsonreuters.com) in London and Stefano Rebaudo
(stefano.rebaudo@thomsonreuters.com) in Milan.
EU RECOVERY FUND? GREEN IS BETTER (1340 GMT)
The big meeting is scheduled for Friday and Saturday next week. Meantime, analysts assessing
the impact of the EU recovery fund see peripheral countries benefiting the most in terms of
lower asset risk and cash at hand to support the economy.
Morgan Stanley takes it a step further forecasting that a recovery fund focused on green and
digital sectors could double the growth impact in Southern Europe.
MS estimates a 0.6% boost to growth from the fund for the euro area, 1.1% for Italy and 1.6%
for Spain in a balanced mix scenario, where digital and green investments are coupled with
financing in sectors that are bound to be subdued until we have a vaccine.
A fund focused on green and digital "could add a 1 percentage point to euro area growth,
largely more than doubling growth in the periphery," a research note says.
In the next 6 months, the boost to equity from the EU recovery fund will come by lower risk
premia across Europe, while expectations of higher growth will "dictate the magnitude and
duration of any further rally," according to the investment bank.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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CAR INDUSTRY: BETTER BE SELECTIVE (1100 GMT)
The car industry is seen recovering in the second half of 2020 as lockdowns easing in Europe
continues, but will investors be willing to buy auto shares?
In terms of sales and production, barring a post-vacation second wave of infections in
Europe, the industry is expected to suffer from some seasonality impact in Q3 2020, before
picking up strongly in Q4.
But auto share prices could drop further in UBS' worst-case scenario, which includes a 17%
drop in global sales in 2020, as "cascading effects" might step in, such as recapitalisation
needs.
In the Swiss bank's base scenario, with a 9% drop in global sales and production, the STOXX
auto index tracked the drop in earnings, which the bank "sharply" reduced.
UBS suggests being selective and "buy names with a strong balance sheet and cash generation,
an above-average degree of cost flexibility" and which can be winners in the transition to
electric cars, such as Volkswagen, Hella, Michelin.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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GOODBYE MR BOND (0950)
Much has been written on how the 60/40 equity/bond portfolio split -- beloved of fund
managers of a certain vintage -- is losing its mojo.
The blame falls squarely on the G7 government bond, which provides neither income in good
times or safety when things go sour.
Some reckon a investment-grade corporate bonds are in a position to assume the safe-haven
role once played by government debt, given they are now backstopped by central bank purchases.
But a recent JPMorgan note advised ditching the 60/40 altogether in favour of other number
combos.
One suggestion they make is to cut down on bond allocations and go 80/20. Another is a
20/40/40 mix of bonds, hybrids and equities. (As the name suggests, hybrids are a cross between
stocks and bonds and include things like preferred shares or convertible debt)
Or forget bonds altogether and go for a 60/40 hybrid/equity portfolio. (Returns would be a
respectable 5% a year, JPM estimates).
Finally, what about 80/20 but with the bond component comprised half-and-half of junk and
top-grade debt.
As for returns on all these options, they range 4%-5% a year. That doesn't sound like much
more than the 3.5% JPM expects from the traditional 60/40, but as it points out: it adds up over
the years.
(Sujata Rao)
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SUNAK'S TIME TO IMPRESS (0909 GMT)
All eyes will be on UK's Sunak, who will unveil later today (around 1130 GMT) his plans to
revamp the economy as he tries to prevent the UK to fall into an unemployment crisis.
What shall we expect in terms of stocks reaction?
The quick answer is not much, as there has been a fair amount of reports anticipating some
of his planned moves, analysts suggest.
But fresh stimulus can always "have a positive impact" on the FTSE, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya,
senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
Here're a few details on Sunak's plans:
- a 2 billion-pound fund to create six-month work-placement jobs for unemployed 16-24
year-olds.
- 3 billion pounds to improve the energy efficiency of homes and public buildings.
- he is reportedly considering a stamp duty holiday and giving away vouchers to boost
spending in hospitality businesses.
Some analysts' comments:
Deutsche Bank - "Our UK economists’ base case is that Sunak will broadly stick to the
mandate set out by PM Johnson last week, possibly topping up the package by another 0.2% of GDP,
focusing particularly on apprenticeship schemes, and modest wage subsidies to get furloughed
employees back into work".
UniCredit - "We certainly do not expect the government to extend the jobs retention scheme;
indeed, while the government accepts the likelihood of a big increase in job losses when the
scheme ends, it appears to have made a judgement that many of these jobs would ultimately be
lost anyway, and that it's better to support a reallocation of these workers to growth sectors".
LCG Research - "High hopes for more infrastructure spending, business grants or tax cuts
could quickly disappear if the focus remains on keeping jobs".
(Joice Alves)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: WAIT AND SEE MOOD (0740 GMT)
European stocks are in negative territory as a surge in coronavirus cases in the U.S. has
clouded hopes for a swift economic recovery.
Investors are in a wait and see mood ahead of the upcoming earnings season, and next week's
ECB meeting and EU summit where leaders will discuss the recovery fund.
Britain's finance minister will announce later today his next moves to prevent a wave of job
cuts from snowballing into an unemployment crisis.
The STOXX 600 index is down 0.3% with banks leading losses down 1.2%, while oil and
gas shares drop 0.5% as oil prices dipped on renewed oversupply fears after data showed a build
in U.S. crude stockpiles.
Shares in Electrolux are among the best performers of the STOXX 600, up 6%, after
the company reported a smaller than expected loss. Victrex stocks, touched a
three-month lows, and are now down almost 4% after the company's trading update.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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ON THE RADAR: INSURERS, BOOHOO, ASTRAZENECA, MERCK (0650 GMT)
European stocks are set for a session in the red, with investors in wait and see mode ahead
of the upcoming earnings session, while they are trying to assess if rising cases in the U.S.
will lead to more restrictive measures.
On the corporate front, commercial insurers are facing hefty claims from the coronavirus
crisis but are also seeing a steep rise in premiums – tempting companies and industry veterans
to raise capital, launch new businesses or expand into new lines. Lloyd's of London, insurers
Beazley, Hiscox and Lancashire are among those to raise equity.
AstraZeneca and Merck & Co said their blockbuster cancer treatment Lynparza
won approval in the European Union for treating patients with a form of pancreatic cancer.
Zalando will delist all products made by Britain's Boohoo following a
media report about dire working conditions in a English factory that supplied the popular brand.
Boohoo decided to launch an independent review of its supply chain in Britain.
Shares in Traton down 3.6% after the company announced management change.
Deutsche Post stocks up 1.3% in early trade after reporting a 16% rise
in second-quarter operating profit.
FirstGroup warned on its ability to continue as a going concern, after posting an
annual operating loss as passenger volumes plummeted due to the coronavirus crisis.
Electrolux said it will report a smaller loss for the second quarter of 2020 than
previously anticipated, with operating income estimated at about 100 million crown.
OMV Q2 output dropped 5% in wake of coronavirus pandemic.
Other headlines:
Diaceutics says sales for first half increased by 20%
Britain's Funding Circle to cut 85 U.S. jobs
Marlowe plc says FY adjusted profit before tax up 54%
Liontrust Asset Management says net inflows of £971 mln in 3 months ended 30 June 2020
Amigo Holdings appoints Glen Crawford as CEO
Italy's Stefanel draws 4 expressions of interest, expects more
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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MORNING CALL: NOT MUCH TO LOOK FORWARD TOO (0545 GMT)
European bourses seem poised to open in negative territory this morning with little to look
forward to after Asia and Wall Street failed to gain momentum and switched to 'wait-and-see'.
Futures for pan-European blue chips, the DAX and the FTSE were down 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.8%
respectively.
The resurgent coronavirus pandemic is keeping Wall Street in check while in Asia, the
bullishness surrounding Chinese shares failed to spread significantly across beyond the region.
Very little macro indicators or corporate events in Europe today to help markets find their
way.
Looking forward, investors will be eager to get into the Q2 earnings season to see for
themselves if the V-shaped recovery priced in the market is indeed on its way.
(Julien Ponthus)
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