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What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/66591/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY2NTkxO3Q9MjAyMS0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 27 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65670/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1NjcwO3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yNyUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
October 20 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/65377/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTY1Mzc3O3Q9MjAyMS0xMC0yMCUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
DOE Trade Plan
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +2318
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2235 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +0530
Tradable pairs
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could