RE: GKP and its position right now.5 May 2024 17:23
We have 4 separate parties, the IOC's, Kurdistan , Baghdad, and Turkey all in the mix.
Each will have to surrender something in order to obtain steady exports of crude. None wants too, but after a year of inaction all sides hopefully understand that flexibility and trust is required.
1.Turkey will have to give water, and its no small thing as it will cost them dearly in electricity production while they have a chronic water shortage. Also blamed is climate change for this, but more probable is over extraction. Turkey wants Kurdish crude and with current contracts as they part own some companies and get a couple of bites from the crude export cherry. Its more lucrative than water, and might lead to gas exports as well.
2. Kurdistan... Might have to surrender crude control to SOMO, and lose out on backhanders to tribal chiefs. Baghdad wants control of all crude produced not just exported, as they know lots of backhanded deals currently taking place.
Reward will be more regular payments from Baghdad, to its employees and not "ghost employees".
3. Iraq...Dislikes and distrusts the Kurds, and would probably live with additional loss of crude sales just to try and bankrupt them. However seriously suffering water shortage so desperate for deal with Turkey. Fears population unrest from farmers unable to irrigate and polluted water used for drinking.
Sounds crazy but built a nice new large hospital but discharges all waste untreated into rivers used for drinking , then hospital fills with local people made ill by the contamination.
Iraq uses dilution as a method of controlling pollution, so wants more water flows.
Iranian influences still may scupper any deals by stopping legislation to pay the IOCs' more per barrel.
4. IOC's, owed millions in back payments and for crude already produced and sold. may have issues getting these payments. Wants their contract conditions upheld and not financially diluted.
So all in all a bit of a nightmare to sort out, and only takes one party to fail to fully agree and not implement and it all falls apart again.
perhaps a 10% chance of achieving something in my book.