RE: Chunky shares....17 Apr 2024 12:07
WestOfEngland
Partly because of the lack of coverage and the controlling family stake Goodwin's always been a nightmare to value ( I've been in to a greater or lesser extent for ~ 20 years ), though the family's stake allows them to take a very long term view !
I don't think we're currently overvalued ... I'm assuming eps for this FY will be ~250p which, at the current share price of £63 will put us on a pe of ~25. With growth at 20% that's a PEG of ~1.25. If growth continues at ~20% that's not cheap, but it's not obviously expensive either.
It is putting a lot of faith in continuing high growth though. If that growth drops to ( say ) 15% then it starts to look a bit different.
Are we on the brink of sustained medium term ( 3 to 5 years ) growth 9f ~20% per annum ? Maybe. If we are then I can see a share price of £80 to £90 in the next 18 months. We'll know better when this years results come out along with, more importantly, details of the outlook for 24/25.
Until then, for me, it's about risk management of my meagre wad !