A few responses to points made2 May 2024 23:56
30/4 @ 10:19
Brom - don't forget the Australian *total* volume is ASX plus Cboe (used to be called Chi-X, I think?). Very, very broadly over the last few weeks, I reckon the volume split has been 66:34, ASX:Cboe. Trust that helps.
30/4 @ 11:04
Brom - thanks for the citation about 88E's guidance on net cash inflow from Longhorn to 88E in 2024. The guidance is a net figure of $US3m for 2024. 88E's Q1 dividend from Longhorn was only US$460k so the workovers and new wells will be doing some pretty heavy lifting to get up to the net US$3m guidance for 2024. Again I'm delighted to be educated but to reach that net figure is such a heavy lift that I *strongly suspect*, but am not certain, that the US$5m debt facility will have to be employed for the capex required to drill the two new wells. I say this because the latest fundraise could not have delivered "fully funded for next 12 months if the capex for 2 new wells in H2'24 came from the current cash at hand.
1/5 @ 09:47
gemstar - the updated IER on the Alkaid ZOI was not trumpeted as "transformative" by anyone on the lse forums except you! The Alkaid ZOI is PANR's smallest and lowest quality reservoir. I would say it has been the consensus understanding for a year that the SMD horizon (now called the "Ahpun topsets" by PANR) will be the primary horizon within the Ahpun/Alkaid production unit. Whilst I was delighted to see an increased contingent resource certified by Lee Keeling (whom 88E has also used remember), of greater note was an independent expert agreeing with PANR management (using the Schlumberger study) that the Alkaid ZOI is considered commercial.
88E's flow test data as published does not suggest *to me* that either 88E management or indeed an Independent Expert will certify commerciality in 88E's downdip location for the shared reservoirs. Those who believe it's a racing certainty that the SFS and SMD at Hickory-1 and southwards are all going to be assessed as commercial are, IMO, being incredibly naïve. I cannot see how 88E's guidance on geological CoS can increase from its current percentages (50% for SFS and 81% for SMD-B). I would be amazed if the guidance on CoS for both reservoirs isn't downgraded substantially following the disappointing flow test results at Hickory-1.
As for PANR's future development, gemstar, please do be aware it is unlikely the Alkaid ZOI will go into full field production until sufficient infrastructure is constructed on the surface due to full field development of the Topsets (SMD formations) such that the economics of the Alkaid ZOI benefit markedly from the benefits of shared infrastructure. So when you hear Ahpun development plan, think Topsets (SMD) first then Alkaid ZOI.
By the way, did the forum notice the PANR BoD has not included a single barrel in their guidance for the SFS horizons(s)? I would strongly recommend 88E shareholders who are optimistic about 88E's SFS numbers to read Monday's RNS from PANR and also read the IER itse