The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Hi MM,
I think you're right that the IMF has baulked to-date to agree C-B's debt restructuring/rescheduling/write-off .
From your link, C-B and Mozambique were name-checked for the opacity of their debt esp oil/mineral-related to private sector lenders - incl GLEN and Trafigura.
"Les États emprunteurs doivent faire preuve de plus de transparence. Un sur dix ne publie pas le montant de la dette de ses entreprises publiques. Certains pays (Congo-Brazzaville, Mozambique) ont omis de préciser les avances sur la production pétrolière ou minière accordées par des entreprises privées"
This https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-congorepublic-imf-glencore-trafigura/congo-seeks-relief-talks-with-oil-traders-over-2-bln-debt-idUKKCN1G41PS
shows the sums at stake :
…"Congo is seeking an IMF bailout and, as in the case of Chad, the IMF has laid out tough terms before releasing the funds. Congo is regularly singled out by anti-corruption groups for the opaque management of its oil sector.. In December, the country pledged to cut its 2018 spending by 9 percent in a bid to win the IMF’s support. The IMF said in October that Congo’s public or publicly guaranteed debt totalled $9.14 billion or around 110 percent of its GDP as of the end of July. Out of this total, the debt to traders represents about $2.3 billion, the country’s prime minister said in October, without providing a breakdown. He also said the country was weighing a moratorium on payments with private creditors. Trafigura has lent the country around $1 billion together with banks. In the case that Congo defaults, the trading house is fully responsible for the debt, although it has insured it with re-insurers, according to two trade sources.
Glencore, backed by a syndicate of banks, lent Brazzaville about $850 million between 2015 and 2016, according to the company’s annual accounts, to be repaid with future oil deliveries over 5 years. At the end of 2016, Glencore was directly owed $336 million, while the banks were still owed about $500 million.”All in all, we don’t think the government is in a desperate situation and requires a massive restructuring. Some sort of restructuring with a four to five-year timeframe would probably be acceptable,” said a source at one of the trading houses who asked not to be identified because the issue cannot be discussed in public. Congo produces close to 280,000 barrels per day (bpd) and is heavily dependent on its oil sales revenue.
It said last June that it aimed to increase production by 25 percent to 350,000 bpd.Unlike Chad, Congo has a wider set of creditors. "
ATB
Hey there all
A mixed up kind of a few weeks... fundamentals still at hand... huge global demand for high grade... that is not changing ‘period’! 60%+ will become the norm.
Zioc are spot on with their timeline updates and I expect a shareholder update before the end of next week.
Keep your eyes on the prize and ignore the noise!
Very happy days ahead.
excellent as always MM. I think we should all know a lot more after the investor presentation. I do hope that goes ahead by early October
My take is that it is China, as the largest creditor, who is calling the tune in the Congo.
I don't think that Brazzaville had done enough restructuring and reform to make a debt deal workable up to June, and a deal was postponed.
Since then Brazzaville has been making big strides (signing tax treaties with China, re-opening tax and customs offices etc) towards acceptability.
This week their Ministers meet to pass their departmental budgets and plans, and which are to fit into their National Development Plan - which specifically includes the Pointe Noire SEZ and new mineral port.
As a result Pointe Noire will be budgeted and Congo know the contribution they will need to make.
Two weeks again the IMF installed a new representative in Brazzaville, and he was interviewed and said a deal could be made 'toute de suite' ( immediately) as a result of conversations between China and Congo at FOCAC in Beijing.
Note this below: Last week, (13-14th September), Christine Lagarde detailed what African countries need to do - quote 'attract foreign investment'. Just a day later the Danes signed their MoU for the $2.5bn fertiliser plant at Pointe_Noire, which requires then 14m draft of any new port.
'...Faced with the rapid rise in public debt of African states, the IMF has set priorities to maintain trust between lenders and borrowers.
For a few years the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been concerned about rising sovereign (or sovereign) debt around the world. Its CEO, Christine Lagarde, took advantage of a conference on this nagging issue in Washington on September 13 and 14 to drive the point....
For the IMF, it is necessary (for countries) to attract foreign investment and increase their domestic tax revenues.
Rather than borrowing inconsiderately, she said, governments should first seek to attract foreign investment and increase domestic tax revenues. This implies that borrowing countries choose to finance credible and profitable investment projects...'
https://www.jeuneafrique.com/629984/economie/fmi-selon-christine-lagarde-le-poids-de-la-dette-devient-un-fardeau-pour-40-des-pays-pauvres/
Personally I think we'll see a debt deal AND official new port sign off by the beginning of October.