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TEP is trading on a March 2024 P/E of 14.3 times. Yu Group will be trading on a Dec 2023 P/E of 7.1 times. Therefore TEP is on twice Yu Groups rating. To get the two companies on the same P/E Yu Group would need to be £25. I don't think that this would be unjustified!
Nice update from TEP , interesting to note they are trading strongly and forecast is £113m profit before tax
YU is expecting PBT of £41
So tell me why TEP is valued 6 times higher or is it not that simple ?
Yep I have access to lib note so knowing lib I am pretty happy it is spot on , but wish the company would give this detail more regular, hitting 50,000 is a pretty big milestone and if it was me would have announced it as pretty major achievement.
Still can’t get my head around who is selling at the moment again today less than 10 trading day away from what has the potential to be a block buster RNS
Hi Sparky, The figure of 53,400 is given at the bottom of page 3 of Liberum's 23rdJanuary note.
25,500 at 31/12/22.
39,700 at 30/06/23.
53,400 at 31/12/23.
So if they are going along last year at 14,000 extra every 6 months they now need to increase that to 23,000 per half year in 2024.
Would be good for YU to update every quarter how many MPs they have added , ie how many in Q1 24 ?
Is 53500 meter points confirmed ? If so brilliant as that means they more than doubled over the year
I imagine that most of us will get most of our questions answered when Yu Group report their 2023 results on the 19th March. If anyone has any good questions they want answering then shout them up. I have a meeting with BK and PR on the 19th and happy to put any good questions to them. I will be asking if they think Liberum are fair moving their net EBITDA margin down from the high 8%'s this year down to 6% for next year, and why the fall is justified.
If the company is successful in getting 100,000 meters by the end of this calendar year up from 53,400 at the end of 2023. Then £800m revenue will be on the card at 8% gives EBITDA of £64m, leading to £48m PAT and fully diluted earnings of 300p for 2024. If 100,000 meters is achieved, then we should go into 2025 with £1bn of forward sales. Average £10,000 per meter.
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After the Jan 2023 trading update Liberum predicted £6.5m of PBT and fully diluted EPS of 30.3p. The figures came in in March at £6.7m PBT and EPS of 30p. Interestingly, in the March 2023 note they were predicting for Y/e 2023 revenue of £350m but now they think £454m, PBT of £9.8m but now they think £41m, and EPS of 43p but now they think 171.7p
Lib have
PAT 29.1m
Diluted EPS 171.7p
I think they will meet or exceed those numbers
No predication as I think Lib will be spot on. Maybe higher depends on bad debt provision as I think lib have 3.5% would need to check and actually seems to have been 2%
2227, Liberum have predicted 171.6p of fully diluted earnings for 2023. In their note last year after the January trading update they were virtually bang on.
Sorry prediction.
Sparky333 what's your pridiction for EPS for 2023. Results in 2 weeks time.
Spot price fluctuations are normal part of energy business, that's why suppliers use hedging. Energy supplies are retailers of energy and there cut will always be there as long as they've hedged properly. If I understand correctly YU hedge all theur energy needs.
Been a bit of mad rise the last couple of weeks up from 56p a therm to knocking on the door of 70p a therm.
Wonder what price for 2024 lib used in there calculations ?
2227 I could agree more, Yu is a little disruptor in a massive SME energy market. If they reach their target of 100,000 meters by the end of this year they will have just 3% of the meters available in this market. The medium term target of 5% or 165,000 meters will probably be hit towards the end of 2025, (maybe in 2026!) They keep beating forecasts and is a great little gem, and a cash machine.
The one thing that really impressed me in the January trading update was not only have they booked £520m of sales in 2024 before it has even begun. But they already have another £300m in the book for 2025!
Two weeks tomorrow! I can't wait!
YU has been beating the broker forecasts with big margins in the past and is likely to do so in the current and coming years too. The share price has gone up a lot over the last few years and it's likely to rise further after the results.2023 EPS likely to be up 5 fold from 2022. You is a very efficient small supplier energy supplier and there's every chance it'll keep on growing it's market share IMO.
Lots of smoke and mirrors and brokers notes have consistently been way out time and time again it like it is done on purpose.
Sparks, I think you have access to Liberum's notes?
Their TP is barely 10 PER. This is not a growth rating, in fact indicates profits will be flat at best, if not falling. Hardly something to buy into as a long term investment. Likewise, looking at the DCF calculation, they do actually show profits and margins to fall significantly, EBITDA to drop back to £30.5m on a 3.2% margin. And they have this level mapped out to 2032. Unfortunately, in the small and micro cap space, IIs rely on the company's brokers - they don't do their own research into these companies, there's simply far too many of them. And the brokers are by nature, are very conservative in forecasts. I can't see this changing.
All the points you list are pretty much known, therefore, in the price. The only unknown is the capital / dividend policy going forwards. If this is set out clearly, including significant distributions, then the sp should lift to reflect a reasonable yield. The Shell deal gives them the freedom now to do this. Looking back to the IM questions on dividends, and the collateral question (see the unedited question on the Q&A tab on IM), they were clearly constrained in what they could say and do, by these issues. Not any more.
With decent dividends, a dividend yield that is sustainable, more IIs should begin to take notice. Once they are aware of the stock, they will be more inclined to do their own research / calculations. If they determine the company is a growth stock, then the PER may then rise. Eventually leading to II demand over the shares in the market, and they will ask BK to place some of his.
This is how I see the roadmap out of the low valuations. As each set of results shows increasing customers and profits, coupled with increased dividends, this should play out. Cash and dividends are king here. We need that £1.20 dividend!
Not many trading days before FY which has to be the most interesting one for the five years I have been invested.
Will we get special dividend ?
Will we get a share buy back ?
How many clients are at ?
Is 100,000 clients on for 2024 ?
How impactful will be She’ll deal be
How much cash have we actually got ?
Coupled with
Record turnover
Record profits
Record clients
Record EPS
Record forward contract book
The list goes on and we are on a 2023 PE of 7
Jeez
It's a usuall pattern and has happend many times before. The results are on the 19th March and trader are likely to start buying again next week . Earnings likely to have increased over 5 fold from the previous year. Being a tight market shares could rise dramatically after the results or even earlier than that IMO. DYOR
With so little shares available i find that hard to believe personally.
Too many retail trading this now I’m afraid
Why we always sell off on great news, starting to really grate on me now.