Adrian Hargrave, CEO of SEEEN, explains how the new funds will accelerate customer growth Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I tend to agree that the drop in core business (NIPT) sales in international markets has come as a surprise. I can understand the frustrations of investors because this was not signposted. The rationale given for the drop in revenue is that resources have been diverted towards Covid-19 testing in those markets during the early stages of the pandemic. However, LR did state that they are starting to return to normal patterns - whether the 'second wave' impacts this in a similar fashion remains to be seen. Ironically, maybe our core business would benefit from a rapid Covid-19 LFT being rolled out as it would re-divert lab resources back to NIPT.
Either way, the core business growth rates in the UK (+40%) and Europe (+80%) were shown to be very solid - both markets which were somewhat insulated from the issues experienced in the international markets. So, if we apply an assumed 40% growth rate to the international market, it shows how much impact the Covid-19 pandemic has had on the international segment of the NIPT business:
£5.1m (H1 2019) x 1.40 = £7.14m (instead of £3.8m). That's a £3.34m swing in H1 2020 revenue due to the impact of Covid-19.
Also bear in mind that H1 2020 revenues and growth rates for the NIPT business do not factor in the IONA Nx test on the Illumina platform. Therefore H2 2020 and 2021 growth rates should be significant for the NIPT business. We also still have the DPYD 'dark-horse' which should add to revenues for H2 2020 and the additional revenue from the Genomic Services venture.
With regards to Covid-19 testing, it's very positive that we are actively increasing the in-house testing capacity to 20,000 tests per month (equivalent to £1m monthly revenue). This does two things: (1) confirms the revenue expected per 10k capacity block (at roughly £50 per test), and (2) shows how long it takes to bring an extra 10k capacity block online (it's not particularly quick and takes 2-3 months). LR also hinted at further in-house testing capacity to be added, based on demand, so maybe we will move to 30k tests per month early 2021 (if demand remains). However, he doesn't seem willing to quantify the additional sales relating to the Clarigene tests being sold to external providers (i.e. the 500k tests available up to the end of 2020). The £1m monthly revenue is from the in-house testing capacity only, but we are still no clearer, as far as I can tell, as to how much we will earn from the Clarigene sales to external providers.
I agree with this statement "The £1m monthly revenue is from the in-house testing capacity only, but we are still no clearer, as far as I can tell, as to how much we will earn from the Clarigene sales to external providers."
I remain hopeful of some further news coming, perhaps naively given the opportunity loss here. Should be interesting if there is any updates from Align etc following.
I'm also disappointed that if, as appears to be the case, the quarterly Covid-19 testing updates promised by LR seem to have been interspersed with other RNS releases. A small point maybe, but I think it dramatically lessens the impact. Maybe this is intentional, but naively I was expecting a standalone Covid-19 testing RNS update on it's own, clearly outlining tests sold in the quarter, both in-house and sold to external providers. We haven't had that; all we have had is an update that in-house capacity has been increased and radio silence with regards to the number of Clarigene tests sold externally.
Indeed a mixed bag. Can't help feeling that some expectations have been blunted - mine have a bit. BUT our year start coincided with lock-down and we still made 5% extra. Not a lot of people can say that. Apparently the Covid headwind has been beaten as October's revenue is climbing. Our core business is back on track and Covid revenue looks to be accelerating.
Looks good to me.
Yes one would have expected a standalone Quarterly update. I find the Director purchases (which have been rare) and Steve Myers share purchase in retrospect very strange given that they would have known better the impairment. So why not await till after the TU? Key for me is the testing, if any, that is being done externally. The promotion of the Covid-19 business in the Company's marketing material is not reflected in these figures. The expected uptake also seems to be at odds with Yourgene having one of the best PCR tests on the market, which are the 'gold standard' compared to other tests. Apparently this is all only good for 20k tests a month which is just simply baffling. Looking forward to any further clarification to paper over the confusion/disappointment. It would be interesting to see the forward looking statements for the new Clarigene test, which was also not referenced in the commentary, and also the commercialisation of the IONA Nx. As ever hopeful.
P.S. It has to be said that the LSE website was frustrating and crap enough. However the recent innovation of the thread views is just frustrating to another level.
Don't forget 400k that was done in 19/20 was booked in this year because of shopping issues etc.
Take that off and there has been no overall growth.
Don't forget the 400k that was for business done last year but financially fell into this year due to issues around covid in March.
Take that 400k of these figures and there has been no overall growth.
LR was happy to talk about the 400k at last years full year update but no mention now.
Sorry for posting twice, didn't think the first post went through.
Completely anti climax as I am now starting to expect since locked into this stock.
@notaflipper - the way I read it, it's YGEN's ability to add capacity quickly that is the limiting factor, not the demand for a 'gold standard' PCR test. I'm sure an extra 10,000 PCR tests per month would be gobbled-up, either by public bodies like the NHS or privately - if only they were available. The challenge is freeing-up or building the extra capacity as quickly as possible. One downside from this morning's update was that it seems to take a couple of months to add an extra 10,000 block to the in-house capacity. And we know from LR's recent comments that he will not free-up extra capacity at the expense of the NIPT business. But I'm hopeful we can hit 30,000 tests per month, maybe by March 2021. The big question, with a vaccine on the horizon, is how the demand for PCR tests will hold up in H1 2021.
I'm also hopeful that we can add significant revenue via sales of the Clarigene test to external testing providers. If we can sell the 500k Clarigene tests touted, at say £5-10 revenue per test, that's an extra £2.5-5.0m in revenue. Which is why I'm a little nervous that no figures for these sales were mentioned this morning.
"Completely anti climax as I am now starting to expect since locked into this stock."
No one is "locked into this stock" ... it's a choice that you choose to make ...