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Sput bought 100k lbs.
Always unclear how much they paid.
Looking at cash reduction and assuming daily management fees c80k then it's about $76/lb which was the ask for Feb24
7400/7500
Https://youtu.be/dSUtAhvodHs?feature=shared
Quite wide ranging and interesting interview.
From 6m30 - utility action including analyst view on $90 + per lb
Production challenges including Niger and adding volatility to spot price.
16min30 illustrates current supply gap 150 to 300 mil ramp required
22min30 about Kaz and supply route and differential pricing for this supply point.
When To Exit The Uranium Trade - Fabi Lara & Steve Mueller. An interesting dicussion between two people who are very knowledgeable while not claiming to have all the answers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1EtqEzj5Qw
(But the answer is probably not yet for quite a while.)
I think the answer is about 6.19 versus 6.24 based on below but I can't update the google sheet - for obvious reasons !
lbs 20,155,601 (21682318 - 1500000) remove future inventory
price 74.00
fair value 1,491,514,474
cash 133,850,000 35.6 plus (1500000x65.50) Oct cash plus cost of future inventory
NAV 1,625,364,474
fx 1.2117
NAV GBP 1,341,391,825
Shares 216,856,447
NAV per share 6.19
So for the whole of Oct with some rare exceptions YCA discount has been more than 10% whilst SPUT has been a lot narrower sometimes even a premium.
Main factor I can think of is fear of future KAP deliveries the value of which are baked into the NAV calc.
If YCA don't get the U then KAP don't get paid so the "loss" to YCA is the impact to NAV of having fewer lbs.
Request to Snooz ... any chance you could crank the numbers for the YCA spreadsheet to show the NAV without the future delivery lbs but with greater cash balance excluding future payments for U delivery ? Would be interested to know what the resultant NAV would be. Thanks.
7350/7450
Imminent re rating?
Further increase in spot
Spot Uranium: 7300/7425
Longer time frame strong 7375/7500
Jan-24 CVD 73.75 74.02 0.13 75.00 IND
Feb-24 CVO 73.75 74.51 0.13 75.00
25.11 was trigger point to switch on ATM and raise funds.
YCA at $64.50 seems a pretty good trade ignoring all this spike stuff and just basic fundamentals. Limit downside. Best risk reward of anything I'm running.
Well this is the point if we started to move strongly then the daft retail punters have limited options to get on board other through these listed vehicles. Most of them wont even know what NAV is. so you could get a double whammy of illiquid spot market driven up by actual purchases, while the funds go to extreme premium due to idiot last wave buyers. Only strategy is stay aware of when the noise gets to high or really big daily moves like 10-20%. Typically trend ending.
I have posted this before - not sure what lessons can be learnt from UPC historical performance duirng U price spike.
https://x.com/ValueSituations/status/1697588353351229684?s=20
7275/7400
Well thats if you get into some stupid catch 22 where money flows into SPUT, drives it to a premium, they then buy physical so driving price up bringing in more idiots. A slow grind to $120 sound a more sensible target, but if one day it goes wild you have to sell into it as not sustainable.
Interesting video. Thanks. $300/lb !!!!
7250/7400
Interesting talking head interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkTnW2GRwOc. i think his point about how easy it woudl be for big investors to game the SPUT price. We have a positive underlying supply/demand story and then creation of a vehicle that actually is extremely dangerous because of the way it is structured.
Caught my attention as well and took a quick look. There seemed to be a few large trades, 3 or 4, totalling c100k volume just after the open which appeared to cause the dip.
Any idea what happened on the open > i was expecting YCA to be 3-4% higher and instead absolutely bombed??? Trading around 13% discount with SPUT closing at 3%. Very weird. All I can think is a bunch of very weak short term players piled in this month and got caught out.
7200/7300
7100/7200
7050/7200
AIM trading suspension since 3pm and sput up 3%
7050/7125