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Just watched the directors talk interview from a few weeks ago Richard Harpham saying they will be looking to add new sites this year with free cash flow which can only be a good thing, and as the site number increases that can only benefit economies of scale. The alcohol they purchase per unit cost will be cheaper because they will be able to order more of it.hopefuly the interims will be released early much instead of late March
Simon - I am absolutley perplexed that the shares are still sitting at this value.
Some will see the share price performance - with their glass half empty wondering what they've misses and that there is a reason why the strong operational and growth has not translated to an increase in the share price.
I am as confident as I can be that there are no gremlins here - I no longer try to guess or theorise why the SP is not higher; I'm sticking with my own assessment and will hold as long as I need to hit my 50p target.
I hope to see more bullish holders on here in 2024 and look forward to sharing thoughts and opinions on their 2024/5 plans and performance.
A little more digging into public domain info reveals an interesting story.
The positive is the recent growth, demand, locations on good terms and brand extension into Boom from EH. If this continues, then it's a good long term bet and has shown itself to be reasonably recession-proof.
However, the share price is 90% down on the initial placing in 2017. Why? From what I can glean, it's a combination maybe of several issues which have stopped institutions jumping in: Being burned from the initial SP, share dilution is huge, SIPS scheme has been rather overused, management style is marmite and v.v.highly remunerated and caused some to jump and fin comms is woeful (one has to assume intentionally given the connections and expertise of the team)..
I am in for the long term and waiting for around 120p before considering a sell. The issue is how much longer until the SIPS is played out, proper news is reported to get interest, no more shares issued and the price truly reflects the achievement and potential. In my experience, even in AIM, prices are there for a reason not arbitrary, so the fact the SP doiesnt rise is because investors see the whole picture (way more than I can) and are wary.
DYOR and DYOC bit for me after some digging, there are gremlins and I can only hope the company gets the SP growth it deserves soon.
The SIPs is tiny and absolutely normal for employees to participate in this sort of scheme. I see no issue with it whatsoever.
The business is completely different to te one that was floated in 2017 - the SP may have been over £1 but the mCAP was less than half of what it is today. I don't what happened pre-pandemic as relevent here at all.
The business is completely different to the one back then. Its growing rapidly and profitably , its establishing great brand credentials, popular with customers and employees.
I respect your opinion - but for me I remain confident that there are no gremlins here.
Yet the SP fails to agree with that.
Have to agree with you there. Also a large proportion of the shares ARE held by institutions, cannacord own a lot . I think earnings will be ok ,
I respect your opinion too but I think you missed a few key points:
- different business it may be and successful in the UK, but the rest of the world has been abandoned as a result. What happened to franchising in the US or anywhere else for that matter. I think there were around 57 locations worldwide in 2017 (I'm talking EH of course), now outside the UK only 20 odd. That in itself is fine IF the SP goes up to reflect the success of the very narrow UK focus. It has instead dropped 90-95%. The issue is any strategy is only as good as the SP reflects.
- SIPS - in total there seem to be around 5m SIPS shares. That's not tiny and the big issue here is one buys shares like this cheap. As long as this continues, the SP won't rise as they want to continue buying very cheap. The original SIPS was awarded for a far higher price, now it's so low it will contribute considerable upside for the buyers BUT not as long as they keep wanting to buy.
- most of all, you haven't addressed the lack of comms. Why would you seems to actively hide the business and not make more of the positive news? That's all part of the extremely hands off management style I see. Looking at the credentials of the board, is that the best they can do to promote the business? I'm not convinced they are trying very hard! Question is why?
I repeat I'm in with a big chunk and want the business to grow but things don't stack up to me at present and I wonder how much longer we linger around 15p?
You keep banging on about the 90-95% drop but some drop was always inevitable and to grow a company needs to raise funds and the big investors know that and would have participated in the raises
The comms are fine, very comprehensive RNS and decent, plentiful interviews. I know what I need to know here. The number will speak for themselves and if the market is caught napping, then so be it.
Some drop... well, running a company and wiping out 95% of the shareholder value doesn't look to me like 7 years of successful work but again, if you feel that is, let's agree to differ. As for comms, I think you're the only person to think their comms is good; many many people don't understand why XP / EH or Boom are so hidden, but again, I respect your view. Are we to wait another 7 years for the market to nap? If so, I'll sell now and cut my losses!
Latest comment (not mine) on ADVFN:
"You have to question why their long in the tooth marketing manager with a TV background couldn't get them exposure on prime time TV tonight with the apprentice running an escape room task."