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Started: riddock57, 31 Mar 2016 12:53
Last post: phoenixchi, 7 Apr 2016 00:52
Don't understand what you mean here, riddock57. The share price has been hovering around £1.90 for many weeks ever since that was the price CSC agreed to pay for the takeover. In other words, there is no speculation left in this SP unless rumor dictates another. very, very late bid is on the horizon. The SP did its big jump from around about £1 last autumn when the first of a few potential suitors, Capita, came bidding at £1.60. Or, am I missing something in what you are saying?
Started: northernsoul, 8 Jan 2016 15:40
Last post: northernsoul, 8 Jan 2016 15:40
4 people only buy 1 share and another person buy only 10.
Started: Kjwl, 6 Jan 2016 13:01
Last post: Kjwl, 6 Jan 2016 13:01
Hi, so I had initially accepted capita offer and now they have lost my share certificate. Anyone know what my options are? Thanks
Started: northernsoul, 9 Dec 2015 08:49
Last post: northernsoul, 9 Dec 2015 08:49
Over to you now. No longer so cheap DYOR
Started: humblebynature, 7 Dec 2015 05:35
Last post: humblebynature, 7 Dec 2015 05:35
by David Campbell, Selin Bucak on Dec 07, 2015 at 05:00 Veteran hedge fund manager Crispin Odey’s firm Odey Asset Management, has increased its stake in outsourcing company Xchanging (XCH).
Started: northernsoul, 3 Dec 2015 20:35
Last post: northernsoul, 3 Dec 2015 20:35
Time will tell if another offer appears.
Started: gimla, 24 Nov 2015 13:58
Last post: gimla, 24 Nov 2015 13:58
My broker informed me that the deadline had been extended, and are waiting a response from myself.As I had previously accepted, i am unable to sell, so will have to wait , and hope the other offers go through, or capita up their offer.My latest response required will be not to accept, but as I said, I made my choice so gotta live with it
Started: humblebynature, 16 Nov 2015 16:48
Last post: humblebynature, 16 Nov 2015 16:48
So what will happen if you have already accepted the capita offer?
Now someone else wants to buy Xchanging http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/supportservices/11998821/Fight-for-Xchanging-attracts-another-US-suitor.html
Started: humblebynature, 13 Nov 2015 05:46
Last post: humblebynature, 13 Nov 2015 05:46
American bidder enters the fray in fight to take over Xchanging http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/supportservices/11991785/American-bidder-enters-the-fray-in-fight-to-take-over-Xchanging.html
Last post: Moljen, 12 Nov 2015 21:54
How lucky, rang my SIPP manager and told him to sell my holding when price was £1.59. Been out all night and just got in to see rise. Thank goodness SL are so slow in transacting and I didn't miss out - got £1.70 for them :-) Now just need bloody commodity prices to start rising!
Last post: Filshare, 6 Nov 2015 18:17
With Apollo falling away, and nothing else on the horizon, looks like Capita have this won. Shame, I was hoping xch would find a way to avoid being absorbed by Capita...or at least push the price up closer to£2. I think Capita have themselves a bargain.
Started: ElProfessor, 25 Oct 2015 13:40
Last post: ElProfessor, 25 Oct 2015 13:40
Well we are a week out from the original deadline for the companies making a bid. Will Apollo use the extra time that they have now got or will they stick to the original time line and state their intentions this week? As a shareholder I obviously hope that they firm up on their bid at 170. Clearly I am biased for the aforementioned reason but if Capita, who were a few weeks ahead in their due diligence, found nothing to put them off their bid at 160 then I am optimistic that the same will apply to Apollo with their 170 bid.
Started: phoenixchi, 14 Oct 2015 19:29
Last post: phoenixchi, 17 Oct 2015 20:19
OK, thanks El Prof. That makes sense, alongside Filshare's comments. I have spread bet XCH but it is a shame no bookie offers odds over whether it will be Capita or Apollo who wins out. That's because I would wager a lot of money that Capita win through. At what price though? Well, we shall see! Good luck.
HI Phoenix, You asked why was the Xch Board favouring Capita or was this just the way the game was played when there are more than two bidders circling. My view is that the Board is not particularly pro-Capita but are just playing the game. I agree with Filshare's excellent analysis in its entirety. We have to remember that the share price over the summer has been predominantly in the 90s and even dipping into the 80s. The Board knows that if this falls through because of mishandling by them then the big holders are going to go after them taking the smaller holders with them in a class action as Filshare remarks. So far I think the Board is playing this perfectly. They were approached over the summer by Capita with a ridiculous offer although it was still a 50%+ mark up on the share price at the time. They rebuffed them a couple of times and then when Capita put in a more serious bid at 155 they partially opened up the books, confident that this would drive a higher bid which it did at 160p. I don't believe it a coincidence that Apollo are on the scene too but presume that the Board after the Capita approaches had decided that the best way to maximise shareholder value was a sale and so either Xchanging or their brokers touted the company around the big PE firms and Apollo liked what they heard. With two players going through Xchanging's books the risk was always that there would be something there unpalatable to either and that the takeover would collapse. The impact of that on the share price would have been disastrous as it would say to the market that when looking under the bonnet two companies had decided they did not like what they saw. We are fortunately beyond that, as witnessed by Capita firming up their offer. The Xch Board has been quite right to say it will 'recommend subject to...' as we now have Capita locked in with a floor of 160p, a clear signal to any prospective third bidder that it all looks good under the bonnet, Apollo still going through the books to determine if they wish to follow through on their 170 knowing that they can't adjust their bid downwards as Capita are in that price space and finally Capita having reserved the right to go up in price if Apollo do bid. Well played Xchanging Board!
I think the chances of 1.70 being exceeded seem to hinge upon a 3rd bidder turning up, or Apollo increasing their offer. An important point to bear in mind is that Capita probably need only to match the Apollo offer to win the prize - that is if no other party comes in. I say the latter because it seems to me that if Apollo and Capita were to both end up tabling identical offers then Capita would surely win because the XCH board are favouring Capita. I believe they have reasons other than size of bid for this - IE to ensure Lloyds still receives the service they have now. I must confess to being a little surprised at how the XCH board have lent towards Capita so openly from so early on. With two bids on the table did they need to say what they did? You are right Filshare, same as El Prof, that we now have £1.60 locked in. Hence, I have now spread bet XCH in case we do start moving over the £1.70 level. only using a small part of my gains though. Overall, though, XCH's share price should tell us all something about the market! Two weeks ago, the market valued XCH at 1.05 or thereabouts. But two big companies, having now seen the books, place a value of 1.60 to1.70!!! I think we all knew XCH was badly undervalued by the market but it still goes to show that the market can be very wrong sometimes. Anyway, good luck to all still in (and to my new spread bet!)
I may be wrong but my reading that the Capita bid is now firm, due diligence having been presumably completed, whereas the other offer has some conditions still on it. Board are recommending capita unless a firm better offer comes in, and this i think locks capita in at a minimum of £1.60, protecting lion share of shareholder gains to date, and therefore protecting the directors from a shareholder class action if it all falls thru. This implies to me that 1.60 is the bottom end of a range that the BoD have settled on. Apollo may yet put in a firm bid, (and their timescales to do so have now changed) but recommendation may even put pressure on them, to up their bid above the conditional 1.70. If capita found mothing scary in due dilligence then some of the risk of appollo coming out is removed. Of course they may calculate that they wont be able to be able to outbid capita, and decide to pull out of the race to avoid wasting fees and time, which would be a shame for shareholders.. Presumably xch would have to declare any 3rd bidder that asks to look at the books, but suspect 3rd bidder would have to up the ante above 1.70 to join the game. In summary, I agree with Prof that there is more upside than downside, .160-190. Range ?.. market is still pricing in a modest increase on the capita reflecting the risks of Apollo pulling out and no one else joining, but at 5p a share I'm happy taking a punt on landing higher. DYOR, GLA..
You may well be right El Prof. I do have a track record of cutting out a bit too early! In July I saw a four figure loss in a company called STM turn into a four figure profit inside 3 weeks. I cut out, as my target had been exceeded but the share then put on enough to have given me an extra 50% gain!!! With XCH, I also think I am a little biased because of how an ex-Director told me £1.60 was the value per share the board had in mind for the company (See an earlier post of mine). But that was almost four years ago now and things have changed since then. I will certainly be spread betting this over the next day or two and then I'll be willing on the price alongside you again! Last thing, though. Why do you think the board are so keen on Capita? Were they mindful to take £1.60 before Apollo came in or is this the way things are played when more than one bidder is circling?
Started: ElProfessor, 14 Oct 2015 14:23
Last post: ElProfessor, 14 Oct 2015 14:23
A good development this morning with Capita putting a 160p bid in as this effectively puts a floor under the share price at that level while having no effect on the potential upside. Apollo are still in play and if they confirm their bid at 170p, Capita has reserved themselves the right to come back at a higher price. Capita have plenty of upside here and they can afford to pay quite a lot more. Clearly they are not going to pay any more than they have to so in the absence of another bidder joining the merry game the key question is how far will Apollo go when they have not got the same scope for synergies as Capita.
Started: northernsoul, 14 Oct 2015 14:05
Last post: northernsoul, 14 Oct 2015 14:05
Capita cannot buy above £1.60 as they would have to increase the offer price. So they are frozen out of the market at the moment. DYOR
Started: Mcfirth, 14 Oct 2015 09:05
Last post: ElProfessor, 14 Oct 2015 09:41
HI Mcfirth, Big but not massive in the context of a company in takeover talks. I would have expected to see a steady flow of deals of this size as Capita and Apollo seek to build up positions. What do you make of the fact that we are not seeing that? Best wishes, Prof.
Massive trade ?
Started: ElProfessor, 8 Oct 2015 16:07
Last post: ElProfessor, 8 Oct 2015 16:07
... given the current likelihood of a takeover but the 20 day average has just shot through the 100 day average. Hoorah, anyway!
Started: Filshare, 8 Oct 2015 08:09
Last post: Filshare, 8 Oct 2015 08:09
If Apollo see value at £1.70, the business must be worth much more to Capita given potential synergies. The Capita RNS from Monday states that £1.60 is the max they will go unless a 3rd party comes in (the news about Apollo in the Xch RNS the same day must have come as a shock to them!) but Capita RNS also made clear that they expected to comfortably exceed their return on capital target at £1.60 which suggests they would be willing to go a fair bit higher if necessary, due dilligence permitting.
Capita / Xchanging: insurance premium: The outsourcing group said on Monday it wanted to buy its peer Xchanging primarily for its strength selling to insurers, and has offered a “final” 160p a share for the group. Private equity group Apollo Global Management has pitched 170p, so it is likely Capita will have to dig deeper. The company has indicated that it would finance the equity portion of the deal by issuing new shares and take Xchanging’s £160 million or so of debt and other liabilities on to its own balance sheet. A blowout 220p bid would, allowing for a small discount to the current Capita share price, require only about 7% to be added to the current share count. Such a deal structure would leave Capita with net debt of 2.3 times its forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation; interest costs are amply covered by operating cash flow. Xchanging has a chequered history and represents a much bigger transaction than Capita’s usual bolt-on fare. But after a recent restructuring, its earnings look set to pick up this year and next. A 30% slide in the share price this year (before the bid news) should provide all the insurance Capita requires.
Started: ElProfessor, 5 Oct 2015 09:24
Last post: Filshare, 5 Oct 2015 19:25
Just seen this, and certainly cheered me up, as Xch was my largest holding, and this moves my whole portfoli into profit again after a rough few months. Only regret is not topping up even more when it went under £1. Reading the RNS, do I detect a quite confidence that there will be futher movement in the offer price? Also, what chance the bidding was flushes out another buyer or two? Accenture maybe? Xchanging has a very strong position in the London insurance outsourcing market, and there must be significant strategic advantages for other outsourcers to seize that position and cross sell other services. Think I'll sit tight for a bit, despite the temptation to cash in some profits....GLA
Initial trading prices suggest people are pricing in a bidding war which will take us above the current highest bid of 170p which I think is correct. As a shareholder you could not really ask for this to be set up better. There are two bidders with very deep pockets and there is still the possibility of other bidders joining in. I wonder how Liberum are currently feeling about having reduced their guidance price from £2.10 to £1 after the July results.
Opened 60 up. Amazing
Started: Mcfirth, 5 Oct 2015 10:35
Last post: Mcfirth, 5 Oct 2015 10:35
Boom
All I can say is what a very nice morning it is. Wish more of my shares would leap over 50% on a Monday morning !!
58% premium takeover. Nice. Well done all.
Started: ElProfessor, 4 Oct 2015 19:25
Last post: phoenixchi, 5 Oct 2015 00:11
Very good news. It gives nothing away with regard to my connection with XCH to say that not long after Ken took over I met him and asked him what he would pay, per share, if he were CEO elsewhere and mounting a bid. He wouldn't answer! However, a week later I was with another senior executive and he laughed at Ken's coyness and said that, strictly in his view, 1.60 a share was the right price to start with. Now, that was some time ago and value does seem to have been added since. Hence, £1.70 minimum is surely right. Let's hope this comes off but nothing is certain. I would also be interested what would happen if the markets took a proper, almighty crash in the autumn - I hope they won't but my feeling is that it cant be ruled out with so much strife and general uncertainess everywhere. Would that, I wonder, scupper any possible deal? Interesting times but thank the lord i went in again at 98.5p to more than double my holding from £1.28. Still...I am too long in the tooth to be counting my chickens quite yet!!!
Xchanging have released a statement on their website. It is a section with all the boiler plate that you would expect with an offer so this is obviously serious. It turns out that Capita made a first offer back in early August at 140p which was rejected by the board who told them they were undervaluing the company.They have since made three over offers and are now at 160p. Apollo Capital have far more recently entered an offer at 170 (cash) albeit both offers are conditional. Xchanging have opened up their books to both parties to conduct due diligence and under takeover rules they have until 02 Nov to make an offer. As Xchanging say in their statement there is no guarantee that an offer will be made but to me this is looking good. There are two bidders and they are now combing through Xchanging's books to work out the true value. I am confident that Ken will have made the accounts rock solid and conservative over the past four years. North of £2 would be wonderful and while that may or may not happen I am pretty confident that an offer will be made north of £1.80. Roll on tomorrow morning to see what the market makes of all this.