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The economy is improving. Would hate to see this if it wasn't...
ElProfessor, Broker forecasts are notoriously difficult to value and rarely do they tell you how they come to that figure. Again valuations are probably on a self interest basis. But to be fair most of the valuations are at similar levels. My personal valuation would be similar to yourself at the bottom end of the forecasts around 160. But again how much value do you allow for the LME. If results are good again I could easily see a spike of around 25p (late 150's to early 160), but usually when things go up fast they then come down (usually with selling and this time I would probably be one of them) again like you I see a quick drop to 150 then a slow decline to 140. Agree with you on buying/selling on lows and highs, I used to hate it when you sell something and as soon you do it goes up another couple of pence. Now I just set a target to reach and when it does, it goes, with a lot less emotion, unfortunately we are not machines and we most definitely can not pick tops and bottoms, if we get near great does make you feel good for a few minutes. Cheers PP
I think the broker forecasts will prove quite accurate. Not sure how quickly though and I do not want to be seen as a ramper. This is still a recovery stock.
Spindok, Many thanks. Out of interest what is your target and what are you basing this on? ElProf
There are lots of small buys all on automatic. These are generated I am sure by a computer which is buying and selling on movement. I have added late last week and happy to hold. My target price is lower than broker forecasts but I feel it will perform well enough for me...
Ping pong, I agree with pretty much all you write, particularly the bit about making money off the short term swings. The trouble I have is I keep buying on the lows but then miss the highs by holding too long (the exception being this last time) and so I end up with more and more of the company. Do you share my view that the mid year will see a reiteration of full year guidance and that will be seen as good news after the loss of LME thereby driving another share price spike?
Spindok, Can you say a bit more, it sounds interesting but I don't fully understand what you are saying, thanks.
trading is happening daily on this share. A buyer is immediately followed by a small seller. Thing is though you can only sell once....
Sorry about that accidently hit return button. XCH seems quite similar to other low volume shares, which increase on positive news then slowly decline over the following months until more news is released. So I think in the next couple of weeks I will buy more when it next dips and then sell off on positive news, which im sure is due and hope for a similar jump as last time when it went to 150. Im sure the share price will steadily increase over time, but I should be making more of the opportunities this share gives and make a little extra pocket money rather than just keep watching the share price go up then down. Cheers
Hi ElProfessor,
Go figure. This being a low volume share, in the short term the fundamentals are of limited relevance in driving the price although obviously in the mid to long term they will. I dumped a good load of these a couple of weeks ago, at 1.36, as I needed the cash, shame cos I would have happily bought back in earlier this week in the mid to late 1.20s had I had the money to hand. Having been closely following this share since IPO the pattern that I notice over the past couple of years is a strong rise either before or after results followed by a slow decline to slightly above where is was before yet with significant swings up and down along the way. We are due mid year results in a couple of weeks (31 Jul if my memory is correct), I would expect them to be predominantly a re-iteration of the FY position given in March perhaps even with a little upside guidance. If this were to be the case then I think we could see a good move up, perhaps even touching the early 160s, as people got spooked by the loss of the London Metal Exchange contact. I would then anticipate the share price falling back to late 140s early 150s before a further climb in spring next year on good full year results. As I have said before we have two (very good) accountants at the helm. The balance sheet is going to be so full of provisions that they will hit their numbers with ease.
That was a very nice rise today on normal volume, unless there are some large buys in the back ground which we are not yet privy too. This share does amuse me with its large drops and rises, anybody got any thoughts on that ?
That's good news ElProf, we could do with some good news to lift it out of the current doldrums it seems to be in.
David Bauernfeind, CFO, bought c 40,000 shares for himself and family at £1.335 taking his total share holding to 200,000 (obviously shed loads of share options as well subject to performance). A great vote of confidence by the man who is probably in the best position to know what the numbers will do for the next few years. Only slight downer is it means Xch is not in a lock down period so there is no imminent takeover however I feel the plus of this vote of confidence heavily outweighs this.
Langy, It is not so much the one off large trade of £430k that interests me but the fact that there are c30 times as many shares bought as sold. I was impressed by the ratio of 11 to 1 last week but 30 to 1 is enormous. I can't claim to have ever understood how with such a ratio there can be virtually no share price movement but I presume it can only be good news.
big trade...
Nothing unusual today then, Ftse goes slightly up so XCH goes slightly down. We need more of those Ftse down days !!
With 11 times as many buys as sells it was a popular share today. Strange how it often behaves inversely to the FTSE. If you take today and yesterday both Xch are broadly flat but went in different direction to each other on both days. Let's hope the massive bias to buys over sells that we saw today continues.
held up very well considering the very large drop in the Ftse.
ElProfessor I'm sure it is only the start of bigger and better dividends, something is always better than nothing. I'm also sure it helped with the share price jump in late March with the re-introduction of the dividend.
PingPong, Thanks for positing that, I had quite forgotten that today was the day dividends were paid out. Admittedly 1p per share is not exactly high yield on a £1.38 share however it is better than last year's dividend and it is particularly nice to go an look in my account and see the money there when I had forgotten it was coming today.
Fernbank, Thanks for your kind words. Glad to hear that you are already showing some profit here. What are you aiming for as an exit price?
payment day today, not quite enough to retire on !!!!!!
Good post mate. My attention was drawn to XCH from Robbie Burns who bought stock here, although I think he called it slightly wrong and bought just before the drop so has since sold them. But I researched and decided regardless of the slight retrace they offered value. Time will tell I guess but already a little in profit so see what the next few months brings.
...albeit only reversing the falls of the last couple of days. The director buy I take with a pinch of salt, after all Bill Thomas bought less than 15,000 shares and I suspect this is driven by his contract which is likely to say he has to accumulate a certain number over the first x years of his tenure as a director. Ping Pong you are right that the broker recommendations are generally well above where we are at present but then again given I regularly posted that brokers were idiots when they were valuing the company at 40p it would a little disingenuous of me to suddenly give credence to the numbers that they are now plucking out of the air. As I said before it seems to me they extrapolate the current trend and hey presto they have a value. How some can be claiming that Xch is worth 4 times what they were claiming it was worth 2 years ago is beyond me. All that said all that valuing companies is not an exact science so with them calling that kind of range it is not significantly different from how I value the company.