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Have been increased also at these prices, just shows what the big institutions are thinking going forward.
How low do people think this will now go? I predicted £4 area a few months ago, after looking at costs the Rolex situation plus cost of living, but now £3-3.50? could be likely.
Must go, so I take my gorgeous wife out and have some drinks.
Enjoy whatever you have planned and be careful you don’t get hand blisters!
Profile name Money, the irony!!
This one is worth a read
https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-prioritising-steel-watch-production-prompts-watches-of-switzerland-profit-warning/
The share now has low P/E figure of around 9.5 based on new FY24 predictions, with revenue basically static yoy after the change in H2 guidance and earnings around 24-25% down on FY23.
Of course it is a business which relies on the sale of one main category of product with luxury watches equating to 88% of revenue and it is looking at constantly opening new selling space in order to further increase revenue.
You also have fewer tourists coming into Europe from the likes of China and Japan right now and they tend to buy luxury in Paris,London, etc , fewer Chinese and they are spending far less than before COVID
Shorters like Marshall Wace tend to know the retail area quite well and have a lot of experience shorting in it, so they obviously worth watching and Cube short using algorithms to help them with their predictions
The NAV is £515.8m on the books and you are paying £923.78m MCAP @ 385.6p a share , so you are paying for the earnings by buying above the NAV
All a bet on the consumer behaviour, watch market and whether earnings can bounce back ....with more retail space they win big in a revenue boom but get hit hard in more of a revenue drought
I suspect if you went to Switzerland they were talking about it
Ferrari
I dont see Rolex wanting to expand its retail footprint by buying WOSG and I dont hink many people would expect them to do so. Drops in share prices don't suddenly mean they are "ripe for a takeover" as WOSG hardly need to sell their business right now to some opportunist buyer
I think within the watch world there has been talk about what would happen to Bucherer and there has been interest shown in it and I suspect if you went to S
If I were Rolex I would make a bid for the 200 Wosg stores the current share price is ripe for a takeover target
After purchasing Wosg I would then stop supplying the smaller dealers with the desirable models or better still don’t renew their contracts or if possible end their contracts
Then I would own all Bucherer and Wosg stores
I would then have 300 retail units of which I would sell the ones that duplicated in the same geographical area
Remember the surprise purchase of Bucherer shook the watch world nobody saw it coming
Pokerchips - The only thing that is ‘blah blah blah’ is your whiny drivel. Lol.
How intelligent of you to denigrate a 4 year plan by condensing it down into one sentence of ‘blah blah blah’ you absolute cretin.
There’s a full plan and how it’s going to be achieved if you have the ability to read or if you took the time to watch the conference call on how the plan was going to executed.
I think you have to add in the fact that the Market is punishing the BOD here because
They gave out all this blah,blah,blah about their expectations by 2028 about doubling revenue and profit out to FY28 and all those ambitious plans including possible M&A, back in November
...but then showed they couldn't even get a guidance forecast right for what might occur in the short term despite what was clearly going on in the world around them
so, I suspect the likes of Blackrock and the Investment bankers have given them a bit of kicking and told them to keep their feet firmly on the ground and stay focused on the here and now ... the share price kicking from Blackrock usually is no bad thing mid term if indeed the BOD take note and do as Blackrock undoubtedly has suggested to them . Blackrock lending out shares to shorters despite having a Long position.
The BOD have of course decided to keep their guidance heads down and retreat with a much more conservative
" We now expect these challenging conditions to remain for the balance of our fiscal year."
If Bucherer with around 100 stores is worth over £4bn (that's what Rolex have reportedly paid for them)
It was a private sale so yes speculation on a sale price, as you will not find the agreed price in either the Rolex press release or the media reporting the sale
" Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst with Vontobel Holding AG, put annual sales at Bucherer’s more than 100 stores at about 2 billion Swiss francs ($2.3 billion), giving the firm an enterprise value of as much as 4 billion Swiss francs. He estimated Bucherer accounts for about 5% of Rolex’s sales."
An EV of " as much as " 4b Swiss francs = £3.63 billion
The sale included the stores, the house brand Bucherer watches and of course the name and reputation
https://fortune.com/europe/2023/08/26/rolex-to-buy-bucherer-in-deal-resetting-luxury-watch-business/
This blog incidentally is very detailed in terms of the sale and what/why etc regarding what it means to Rolex
https://www.ablogtowatch.com/rolex-buys-swiss-bucherer-watch-retailer-group-what-now/
Fordy88 - I’ve just checked and you are correct, Rolex paid £4.5bn to acquire Bucherer…….ill repeat that…….£4.5bn!
That’s for 100 stores!
The value of Rolex itself if £10.7bn, so they’ve paid almost half of the value of the business just to buy those 100 stores.
So now there are over 1500 remaining Rolex retailers worldwide………and they’re going to buy them are they? Of course they are…..
Let the idiots speculate. Lol.
I'm m not arguing mate I'm just talking to you.
If Bucherer with around 100 stores is worth over £4bn (that's what Rolex have reportedly paid for them) then its stands to reason that WOSG with over 200 stores is worth more than the mcap of £1.4bn.
With that I'll bid you goodnight.
Good luck all
Ade1234 - Don’t get involved in big boy talk when your s brain damaged wreck.
You’ve looked at the store costs? Lol. What are they seing as though you’ve looked at them. Lol. Absolute d*ckhead.
What Rolex problem. Explain it to me.
Bells started to ring for me, the Rolex problem.
I then looked at store costs and cost of living problems and I concluded this was now trading in a bumble.
404x - ‘I'm not going to argue with two of you at once, I'm in this dog too right now so there is that.’
In this dog? Sounds like you’re emotionally involved in this for sure?
I’ve just given you the fundamental facts around the argument you were making? The ‘market perception’ is irrelevant because it isn’t the facts of the matter. Lol. Unless you invest based on fallacy? I invest on numbers and facts.
‘Tms as judging by some of your posts on this board you've been a bit triggered by all this so I'm going easy here.’
Feel free to go hard? I’m still waiting for a respons on the facts I’ve just told you about Rolex? But you seem to have just deflected?
I'm not going to argue with two of you at once, I'm in this dog too right now so there is that. As for the long term decline, we'll have to see how that plays out.
We've all been on the wrong side of trades so I'm not rubbing salt in the wounds by saying the company is f*cked. There is just a market perception that one day it might be, as much as you wish there wasn't. tms as judging by some of your posts on this board you've been a bit triggered by all this so I'm going easy here.
The Rolex ‘myth’ still won’t go away. Lol.
You’ve only got to be able to do the maths to realise is absolute nonsense.
And if you can’t do the maths the bit where Rolex said very clearly ‘we’re not going in to retail’ might suffice? Lol.
404x
Rolex haven't gone it alone they bought Bucherer for a reported chf5bn!!! That's over £4bn for around 100 stores. By that reckoning that gives WOSG a value of around £8bn if they wanted to buy them!
404x - You’re a million miles off.
Rolex via Bucherer? There are 100 Bucherer stores worldwide and over 1600 stores currently selling Rolex and an authorised dealer. So Rolex are cutting off 1500 of their global stores to go it alone are they?
I don’t think so.
As I’ve already mentioned Rolex have already invested over a billion on their production capabilities in the last 12 months…..and now they’re going to invest how much on going full retail? Even though they’ve already stated they have no intention of doing so?
@tms see any of the Swatch Group brands, Rolex via Bucherer etc, if anything WOSG are the odd one out because most luxury companies sell direct.
Still it's an unfortunate situation for WOSG to be in because even Rolex made every promise to carry on supply and do so for many years, all that really matters is the market perception of that risk existing of Rolex fully going it alone. So there will always be a Rolex shaped sword of damocles hanging over the stock.
Don't get me wrong I'm not saying this is going back to £14 but £3.85 is way oversold.
IMHO
No stainless steel ones Fordy, but some gold ones available I believe.
If you can get me an entry level stainless steel Daytona at Michael Spiers for RRP then I'll happily give you a £5k finders fee. I love my watches so I have some knowledge on the subject. Wouldn't profess to be an expert but I know enough to say there's still a huge demand for Rolex. As long as WOSG have a distribution agreement in place with Rolex this is massively oversold. At this SP WOSG is a takeover target.
You asked and that's my opinion.
404x
Rolex, Omega and the like don't have a direct consumer sales channel they use retailers. In the UK WOSG front both Omega and Rolex stores. We've recently had a massive Omega store open here in Liverpool One shopping centre. It's owned and run by WOSG
404x - ‘To be honest it's already happening, most have a direct to consumer offering because why wouldn't they, by cutting out the middle man they can control supply, set prices and maintain their brand strength by not being sold in a mixmatch of brands type shop.’
Be specific.
Which brands are selling straight to the consumer and are no longer using third party retailers. And what percentage of the market is this exactly?
WOSG have plenty of mono brand boutiques with more opening this year. They’re not all ‘mixmatch’ stores as you put it. These mono boutiques will be contractual with the brands they’re selling.