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I broadly agree with this article. Appreciate Motleyfool comes up with all sorts in their articles but I happen to agree
I reckon Vodafone will sell Spain and Italian businesses for c£15-£20bn to clear the major of their debt, this is will take a year to divest properly, leaving a healthy revenue and turnover.
Costs (energy and staffing to go ease)
£1.30 share price end of 2024 into early 2025. Take 4-7% in dividends each year and that makes me 100% profit in my ISA
Appreciate there are other companies out there that might give you multiples more but they are also higher risk.
https://www.fool.co.uk/2023/11/01/this-ftse-100-stock-could-rise-117-according-to-analysts/
The Swisscom interest in Vod Italy is just the start imo - with inflation dropping worldwide, interest rates will follow making it cheaper to raise money for takeovers - when companies are taken over the predator is ideally looking for a bottom fishing scenario with the economic headwinds turning positive - this scenario is playing out right now in front of your eyes - I added to my holding here this morning
gla dyor etc
Completely agree
If we clear 50% of the debt in the next few months, the risk of financing costs eating away at our EBITDA will start to fade and share price will respond positively
A more focused UK and German business will go down well I think. Focus on growing this business.
At the moment we are too big and in too many countries
I canr see them paying £25billion off the debt in the next few months.
XxxAccountant. I am glad to know you are an ex accountant! How could vodafone pay off 50% of it's debt in the next few months? About 23 billion? Come on, you don't make sense.
Maybe he's expecting Marge to forgoe some of her salary?
£10-12bn from Italian business and £4-£5bn from Spain. If my maths is correct that’s half our current debt cleared?
I’m a Chartered Accountant and retail investor simply quoting numbers from multiple media sources.
I’ve based my investment decision on debt being cleared by half and ebitda of 6-£8bn flowing through to £7m in fcf
To me that seems like a bloody good investment
All we need is to see some concrete action from the board
Just to clear, by debt I should add ‘net debt’ exc leasehold liabilities
Can I have 75.9p for next week please
XxxAccountant
Looking at the latest H1 report, the combined EBIDTAal for Italy and Spain is 1.039bn out of the 6.378bn.
I am also curious to learn how the business service unit will continue to operate in these regions . Given the global coverage of Vodafone's platform, I believe these won't be affected. For clarity these are the services I am referring to: https://www.vodafone.com/business/about-vodafone-business
So moving forward, Vod is positioned to continue expanding their enterprise business in both Italy and Spain. In Hungary that was kept in tact and fully.
Any thoughts?
XxxA. Thank you for your explanation. I am not sure your valuations are correct, but let's hope so. Have a good one.
Kiwitwo, I'd be happy with that price as anything over 75p puts me in profit and I will have a nice dividend payment in february.
XxxAcc ... I'm unsure why you think VOD's Italian arm is currently worth £10 to £12 bn, the latest valuation (Barclays) is €9.3 billion (£8.1 bn).
Back in April VOD's "excellent" NOT management rejected a £9.5 bn bid, probably another duff management decision.
What VOD needs is a more ambitious people running the company.
The following is a good insight into VOD from respected commentators ... "The latest results are a checklist of everything bad about this company, said Russ Mould, head of investment at AJ Bell. It has swung to a loss-making position, revenue is down, the dividend is not growing and there is negative free cash flow.
Net debt increased to €36.2 billion from €33.4 billion at the end of March, primarily driven by the free cash outflow of €2.0 billion and €1.2 billion doled out in dividends.
We’ve got the usual rhetoric from the chief executive that the turnaround story is making progress but at the end of the day it’s yet another set of results that remind us how Vodafone has lost its way big time, said Mould. Work is underway to restructure the group but don’t hold your breath for rapid change.
Albie Amankona, telecoms analyst at Third Bridge, noted that net customer additions remained "subdued" but the second quarter rebounded from losses in the first. These losses indicate that further operational cost management is necessary, Amankona added.
Having completed 30% of their targeted savings program by FY26 and having implemented the easiest opex reduction methods first, it could imply that the opex management program lacks ambition. This echoes the skepticism of our experts, who doubt whether the planned opex reduction program will yield the required results.
Anyone buying or adding here needs to go lie down in a dark room, yes folks there are other companies much better positioned to invest in.
Gary. Although I agree with your 1st point about the innacurate valuation of vod Italy, you seem to then contradict yourself by 1st saying "vod needs more ambitious (definition, Having or showing a strong desire & determination to succeed) people running the company" & then making a non ambitious, negative comment "Anybody buying or adding here,needs to go & lie down in a dark room,yes folks there are other companies much better to invest in" Not very ambitious is it? I think we should all count ourselves lucky, someone like you is not running vodafone!
Dan, personally, i would not invest another penny in this company, it has dropped every year for the last six years, and possibly it will under perform for the next six as well, how many accountants have we had on here saying how much this company is under valued in the past and everyone of them have got it wrong, just look at the current share price. there are other dividend company's that can afford to pay the dividends without you losing more of your capital, having to sell off parts of the company in a desperate attempt to pay down debt is hardly the signs of a well managed company
Hello rob. I am not sure what the point of your post was, but I am not suggesting that you should invest any more money in vodafone. You do seem a bit confused, angry even at times. Have a good week though eh?!
The valuations that have been estimated would be a standalone business however if purchased by a competitor, I would estimate 10-20% in synergies eg they won’t need two head offices, two support services etc etc and therefore prepared to pay a premium
Hi Dan, neither confused or angry mate, the whole point of investing in the stock market is to make a profit not a loss, up until now it's just not worked out that way with Vodafone, Do they now have the expertise to make this change direction, what do you think?
most shares go up and down i get that, but when they only go in one way, alarm bells start ringing
let's see where we are next year and let's hope something good can finally happen here
Time will tell I guess. If Vod rejected a £9bn bid surely they might consider a higher bid, everyone has their price.
Next few days and weeks will be very interesting
Good question meshtrader, I really don’t know, sorry. I think it depends on who bids.
This time next year no one will be talking about the recession any more , inflation will likely be low , rates about to go down. Ukraine war might end, situation in the Middle East will be stabilized. Likely no major escalations with China. Putin strikes a deal, Not a good environment for gold. Obviously with so many variables this might change in an instant - but the above is my base case scenario outlook & the markets could fly. I keep adding VOD at these crazy low prices with an average of 81p & target of £1.20 :) sorry guys I’ve always been a dreamer haha GLA
Yes, Bebold,
And Labour will march into No.10 to c k u f it all up again.
It happens every time.
Everyone's different, with investment decisions dependent on personality, circumstance, and faith in the company. It may suit some investors, who are sitting on paper losses, to top up in order to bring down their average cost per share; Others may believe the company is super cheap and don't consider the dividend a motivating factor to buy stock. I'm currently watching Vodafone's price on a daily basis and suspect it may dip below 70p next week going off previous ex dividend price action in the following days. If it does, I'll likely top up myself.
1st June 2022
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=280115502&format=interactive
24th November 2022
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=26911151&format=interactive
8th June 2023
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=1136014184&format=interactive
23rd November 2023 (Currently)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ49B8X4hFFdtXb6WUx45CDRcgMt5FBglgZCFc5UnApKRpOX8cznaVjvfKeIWdC6xr70q5wCbdhpFe7/pubchart?oid=575774748&format=interactive
Just to add to my last post, price action will also likely depend on how the FTSE performs next week.
Forensic, oh really?!
I think the Conservatives have already done a pretty good job of uckfing things up.