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Accolade this week goes to
"Exil " well done
Speech Speech Exil
Closing SP 83.76p
Full list will follow
Unaccustomed as I am to public speaking I would just like to thank my mother and father for being there when I was conceived, my teachers for all their hard work, all the next door neighbours I've ever had for being there when i needed a next door neighbour, my...............and in conclusion i would like to say what a fabulous honour it is to be so acclaimed by such a knowledgeable and perceptive group of people that inhabit this board. I thought this moment would never come but now it has i feel i need to take some time out to reflect and soak up this monumental moment and maybe shed a little tear
.
16th Dec closing SP 83.76p
Exil 85p
Y11-shx 82p
Sigma 71p
Android 86p
Sotonspike 100p
Bushytailed 88.6p
Newsid 103.6p
Raffles 103 5p
SlartiB 92.75p
Geigaboy 90p
Velo 88.5p
Fredrubble 88.69p
Roofer 90p
ATB
Something I've only noticed due to being a contestant in this weekly competition is that when I come to update my spreadsheet the lowest price of the week AND the highest price of the week, both occurred on the same day
- today Friday; the end of the week.
What's unusual is something similar happened last week - again on a Friday.
Coincidence whilst the SP is under duress?
velo, just curious why would you enter the daily high and low onto a spreadsheet everyday
Not every day robleo, just at the close of the week.
They're just two of several areas of data that I manually input to the spreadsheet containing my copyrighted, fantastico, world-beating, Nostradamus-like formulae, I press click and hey presto out comes the answer.
Well 21 answers - look it's a computer it's leaving no stone unturned.
Then it turns round and says: It's one of those - defo!
When I type in: But which one?
It's says:
Don't ask me I'm not a clairvouyant - those are the mathematically high probabilities that might occur by the week's close, the rest is up to you, mate. But it is one of those. You'll see!
That's when I unplug it for answering back with cheek!
In other words, I self-calculate my own pivot points.
Hi velo, thanks for clarifying that, so just as i thought then? you have too much time on your hands lol
I was thinking with vod dividend currently yielding over 9% and the possibility of the share price being over a £1 next year it could be a good investment, on the other hand it could be a big mistake, if you could work out the share price for next march and this Saturdays lottery numbers i would be very grateful lol
have a good weekend
"if you could work out the share price for next march. . . "
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Annual pivot points? Never heard of such a thing. Hmm.... makes me wonder :)
- But monthly pivot points should be doable.
PS. In the early years of personal computers, I built a simple averages table for the football pools. I could near enough guarantee 4 out of 8 draws almost every week but the other 4 had to guesses. Won several times but very low amounts.
Years later I used a similar system for the lottery. It "sort of" worked in the early years until the law of averages caught up over the years and rendered the whole thing null and void. Would often win £10 infrequently. But that could/ - would have been plain, dumb, blind luck kicking in.
Wound up doing horse racing - with little success but would take hours and hours inputting the data all day so gave it up.
Years later I heard on Saturday horse racing TV of somebody called The Computer Kid who often won.
The system that I have, using both natural and common logarithms.
In layman’s terms, it works out that over a given timeframe, if the share price rises, then your investment will rise in value. There is a direct relation between share price and the value of investment.
Take Vodafone, for example. The formula I use currently shows that Vodafone’s share price today is looking very cheap, if in the future Vodafone’s share price increases considerably.
What kind of drugs is velo on... i want some
you could also compare with the historic charts, and just make a few adjustments for the unprecedented events, such as pandemic/putins war/inflation/interest rate rises, oh and change of CEO simple really lol
nice to see you in the xmas spirit guys
" you could also compare with the historic charts, and...."
------------------
Morning Robleo,
I do all that. Have done for many a year.
Or at least that side forms a part of my systematic process. It's labelled the Long Term Trend. One of many varieties of period trends I refer to.
All the other stuff you mention goes in too - as price already reflects the Putin carry-on's/CEO firings etc and all the other things you mention, et al. It's all in there, curtesy of price.
Result? Don't buy in a bear market.
And in an uptrend? - Fill the tank up for the trip ahead.
VOD is still in a long term bear downtrend. So is BT. That's fact not opinion. The fun comes in deciphering when the floor is in.
..and dont forget the 3rd Friday every month, tuesdays and thursdays, time of day, bank holidays, tax years, calendar years, month ends, quarter ends, increase in ramping or deramping activity, standard deviations, linear regressions, 10% inflation, FEDs language,....Mdme Lagardes language.. reduced interest rate increase 'is not a pivot'...., fibonacci, macd, rsi, oscillators...and psychological factors, emotional attachment, distress, media 'yellow journalism'...and everything else.
Yep, new CEO just needs a simple strategy that encapsulates all the above and below and we will be flying
Thanks Velo,
Very interesting and absolutely bear markets take no prisoners, a lot of investing is confidence based and timescales obviously, the computerisation of share ownership has changed everything.
Remember buying shares phoning your broker then and getting a contract and a month later a certificate in the post and then dividends by cheque. Checking share prices in the newspaper or teletext!
Like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger buy it and hold it forever, or until something seriously changes.
Nobody rings a bell at the bottom or the top!
GLA
" Remember buying shares phoning your broker then and getting a contract and a month later a certificate in the post and then dividends by cheque. Checking share prices in the newspaper or teletext!"
----------
Ha! I certainly do. The thrill of receiving a cheque in the post dropping through the letterbox is one I never forget. And those share certificates were works of art. Must have been expensive too (the one's that were heavily embossed with regal crests)
Tempted to frame mine but used to think: But what if a burglar breaks in? So beautiful were the share certificates that after Big Bang a market opened up for collectable certificates on eBay. Haven't checked but believe there's still a market for the old worthless beautiful crested certificates on eBay - regarded as works of art!
=======
Android101 - yep got all of them. A ton of data on days and weeks of the month. Have pared down a lot of the indicators and expanded the ones that fit my style. Got hundreds of years of data going back to the formation of stock market investing from when they were carried out in London's coffee houses curtesy of various data studies by researchers etc., Too much as often ignore the triple witching hour occasions etc., it all gets picked up in my ultra short term trends anyway. In other words Trend Following for me :)
Subscription specialist charts I can personally go back to 1900 on anything. Further back than that for checking out other things I refer to researchers when their work is available freely.
"VOD is still in a long term bear downtrend. So is BT. That's fact not opinion. The fun comes in deciphering when the floor is in."
The only people who know where the floor is, are the big players writing the script in the background. The easiest way of investing, not trading, is to buy when you see value with no set holding period; We're currently sitting on some quite hefty paper losses, but I consider our three stocks BT, Vod and LLoyds to all be undervalued. On the plus side we're receiving dividends of around £22,000 a year and reinvesting dividends in the ISA's, while taking the dividends in the share dealing accounts to be used for other things.
Some people attack this style of investing, as they seem to think dividends are useless and trading's the way to go. It takes confidence in your investments to hold when you're underperforming, but I see value in our investments and reinvesting half the dividends gives us growth, while the other half goes into our bank account for other uses, like forward buying shares in the isa's, then reducing stock in the standard share dealing accounts; You just have to make sure you sell in the standard account when the price goes above your purchase price in the ISA. Everyone has different investment goals and strategies and should do their own research, but what we're doing suits us.
Good morning all, Good god all this talk about floors and charts etc etc,I have been playing this game for 40 odd years and the 1 thing many / most have not mentioned is LUCK .
You play the game with what you like but it's all just a big game of luck. simple as that.
Hi Fleccy,
"... we're receiving dividends of around £22,000 a year.. "
---------------
Gezalou! I'm seriously impressed there, Fleccy. If you own your home - you could live on that income!
(With a little bit of LBYM's:)
PS.
Not to keen on you revealing too much ££'s and pence in your posts because you never know who's reading these posts.
ie., Read years ago, fraudsters patrol Facebook picking up on those broadcasting the dates their homes will be empty whilst telling all when they go on holiday - when defending your methodology with personal £££'s & pence, from envious posters who feel they can only succeed by putting down others - as if other investors are the sole reason for all their personal failures.
I have so many investing books that I've run out of storage space. Overall my takeaway is that fortunes have been made from all styles of investing methodolgy.
"Not to keen on you revealing too much ££'s and pence in your posts because you never know who's reading these posts."
I'm not too worried, as there are much easier targets on Crypto exchanges and it'd take some serious investigation/hacking/electronic manipulation to target someone like me over the filthy rich easier targets.
In terms of building a portfolio from my three stocks, look at the dividend income on Lloyds, BT and Vodafone and you'll see the investment/yield make them attractive, as long as investors research them and are happy with the safety of their investment.
This isn't the split on our investments, but lets assume a three way split of stock for a portfolio holding Lloyds, BT and Vodafone at current prices.
BT current price 112.95p
VOD current price 83.76p
Lloy current price 45.18p
Lets assume someone is receiving full year dividends of £21,000 across the three stocks, so £7,000 from each.
BT
BT's dividends last year totaled 7.7p
7000/0.077 = 90,909 shares, current value £102,682
VOD
VOD dividends last year 9 Eurocent (7.9p)
7000/0.079 = 88,608 shares Current value £74,218
Lloy
Lloyds dividends last year 2p
7000/0.02 = 350,000 shares Current value £158,130
So, to build a portfolio paying £21,000 a year in dividends, across the three stocks, would cost £335,030. Clearly Vodafone gives the best dividend return for the least investment and Lloyds the worst, at current share prices, assuming I've done my math correctly.
'So, to build a portfolio paying £21,000 a year in dividends, across the three stocks, would cost £335,030'
Think I read recently you could buy a £7k level annuity for £100k. So £300k would buy £21k income. That's a peaceful passive income except that inflation is running hot. If you wanted indexed annuities and cover for her indoors you could reduce that income alot
"Think I read recently you could buy a £7k level annuity for £100k."
Maybe if you're over 65, but that's still a good few years away for us.
https://www.hl.co.uk/retirement/annuities/best-buy-rates
There are different ways to look at this, with the annuity you're return is safe no matter how long you live, whereas self investing comes with risk.
If you could be 100% sure that Vodafone would maintain their dividend and the company is sound, currently you could get £21,000 a year income for a total investment of £222,654 + dealing cost, but can anyone be sure that the dividend wont be cut? That's where the risk comes with self investing over an annuity. Something else to consider is that building a self investment portfolio in ISA's gives tax free return but again with risk.
fleccy. The main difference between self investment & an annuity, is that with an annuity, when you die, your investment dies with you, but with an investment , it doesn't. Big difference!
Fleccy, yes there are multiple options for everyone at every phase in the life cycle. I suppose a financial adviser would ask you to tick the low risk, medium risk or high risk box. Active or Passive etc
As a tax payer I think I prefer the lowest tax option over the long term and all non discretionary spend will be covered by annuities in my retirement. Hobsons choice whether you pay tax on income and then put it into an ISA to grow tax free or if you avoid tax by putting it into a SIPP, then later get 25% tax free and drawdown on a tax efficient glide path.
"fleccy. The main difference between self investment & an annuity, is that with an annuity, when you die, your investment dies with you, but with an investment , it doesn't. Big difference!"
There are various options with annuities in respect of spouses, and I didn't consider the after death capital inheritance issue, since we were talking in terms of income while alive; But you're correct, in inheritance terms it makes a big difference.
"As a tax payer I think I prefer the lowest tax option over the long term and all non discretionary spend will be covered by annuities in my retirement."
I'm not really clear on annuities. I've had three pensions over my lifetime, two are final salary pensions and the third was a DC pension which I put into drawdown, investing the cash into stocks in the ISA's; I didn't even consider an annuity due to the amount involved and my age; I also wasn't earning at the time I put the DC pension into drawdown, so I was entitled to 25% tax free plus my income tax allowance on the first payment, which was two thirds of the entire pot. I did have to pay some income tax on the drawdown payouts, but insignificant as far as I was concerned.
Everyone's circumstance are different and retirement planning is like buying a pair of shoes, one size and style doesn't fit all, so you have to look for the correct size in the style that suits you.