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Looks like LSE need to change this to Vodafone prophecy discussion only ... All filled with same boring and timewasters prophecy discussion. LOL!
Lse2000. So how about something interesting from you then, instead of just boring us with your timewasting post?
It is all about Etisalat. They own ~15% of Vodafone and their immediate publicly announced intention is to increase their holdings to ~20% in the next few months. There is a real possibility they may bid in totality for Vodafone at some point.
A 15% ownership positions then as the leading candidate for a takeover.
MDV is making some major structural changes at Vod with Etisalat is looking over her shoulder as a "co-owner." Will the dividend increase or decrease? Etisalat has a major say. Should Vod sell Spain or Italy? Etisalat has a major say. Who should be on the board of directors? You get the idea.
A takeover would give Etisalat a strong position in Africa. If you look at a cellular map Vod and Etisalat ownership of African assets compliment each other competitively. It also diversifies UAE holdings away from oil and gives them a major position in numerous telecom markets.
MDV needs to get the share price up through disposals so if Etisalat moves for a takeover they get a good price for Vod holders. Conversely, a much higher share price could make it more expensive for Etisalat to attempt a taker over. I estimate the fair price to be over 2.5 times the current share price presently. If Vod sold off their operations they could conservatively get somewhere in the area of 550 billion pounds. There is a lot of value here and a lot of money for shareholders to be had.
I have my posts per page set 100, and the prophecy posts take up nearly a third of the posts per page. It's almost at the point of spam, drowning out relevant posts discussing the actual company, and probably putting people off posting meaningful posts.
When investing in shares you need to look at total returns you will be expecting over say a 5 year period, i would be interested in knowing why you are investing in Vodafone, and what you're expectations and time frame are, genuine question guys not just trying to put it down without a good reason
Personally I haven't got a fixed timeframe, I'll just hold and collect/reinvest dividends where it suits. I have no idea how safe the dividend is, since Vodafone consistently appear to run the business in such a way as to maintain EBITDA/Net Debt/Interest paid and Received at certain levels.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSNxkKmgR2PzSL1NH5uvhJAIl6TyUm-PpH2hChEFWELeB8mLB-V562E7qRdDL0lOSa8NyAUBbokBjVp/pubchart?oid=325944045&format=interactive
For people using the argument that the dividend isn't safe, well you could have said that going back years and yet they've consistently paid a dividend, even during Covid. Going forward, much will depend on how much they throw at Vodafone Idea, what happens with the Vodafone UK/Three merger and things like growth in Africa.
Fleccy - stop waffleing
I believe this is undervalued is why I’m invested. Yes you can focus on the low share price at the minute, but as they say, you can’t invest in the rear view mirror. If you look at the world becoming more reliant on data, data centres (a friend of mine supplies the power here and comms is essential) and the general trend of humans, we’re not going to need less data/comms going forward. Then you have the Middle East interest and they want a future passive income, so investment is huge, look at sport etc. The brand is iconic and you simply cannot setup the infrastructure and client base of this organisation over night. It would be cheaper to buy it as a going concern. The cash flows are incredible and my kids would sooner loose an arm than their phone contract. I have what I’d consider a sizeable private holding here, it sits in my Isa so I can wait forever. I can honestly see this back over £2 in 2-3 years from now. That my take!
Where are the incredible cash flows? Barely 1.5bn according to their own accounts.
The only incredible thing of note is Vod’s failures as a sustainable business. The model is defunct and failure is inevitable.
Bye bye Vod
VOD debt was about €46Bn at H1 last year. Whats it going to be H1 this year?
I guess €33Bn. Market should like that reduction surely?
Mrlong, RE: If you look at the world becoming more reliant on data, data centres (a friend of mine supplies the power here and comms is essential)
I don't think anyone would disagree with that statement, but others have been saying that 5 years ago
but i do hope you are right, it would be nice to see this change direction, this has been a tricky little bugger for sure
best of luck
It certainly needs patience. I was hoping to in and out of this long ago! I still have conviction medium to long term for tge reasons I stated. I’m in a few other holdings that are equally frustrating atm, the first half year rally the pundits are banging on about, doesn’t apply to me unfortunately. I am optimistic about the rest of the year though!
'VOD debt was about €46Bn at H1 last year. Whats it going to be H1 this year?
I guess €33Bn. Market should like that reduction surely?'
..should add that would represent a 28% reduction in debt H1 on H1. No wonder MDV says debt is no longer a problem
Jax. Just a thought mate. But don't you ever bored with your constant repetitive posts.(We all do). If not, you must be very boring. Try taking up something a bit more challenging. It might help?
'28% reduction in debt H1 on H1.'
I could be wrong. Maths isnt my strong point. I suppose the market will be salivating over new debt for the 3 merger if its issued at 6%. VOD sitting in a sweet spot with fixed coupon on debt around 3%. Just need to sit it out if you can afford to do nothing
71s today for sure
That mini resurgence is well and truly over
Germany is falling apart
'28% reduction in debt H1 on H1.'
JPMorgan reporting on Spain option anyday now. They have been working on that for 3 or 4 months now. €5Bn would be handy with no material impact on earnings. You know it's coming, but when?
I guess before the 3 merger news?
All markets are slightly down today, FTSE in particular.
A small retrace in VOD is to be expected.
Jax is not some genius with a crystal ball.
Define a small retrace Avi
Vod is headed one way - plop
Jax, you have promised us to be able to top up in the 60's and even 50's for a long time now. Any confidence in your predictions is long lost by this board.
Oh Jax, this is bitter for you 😁
Egg on face again? 😂
Maybe jax meant the weather forecast will reach 71 :)
In today. Liberty Global bought 5% of the company earlier this year at 94p was it? I think 70s is a good entry level especially with the dividend yield. Long term hold.
Hopefully e& get there regulatory approval to start buying there extra 5%, as that will help the SP along