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Fleccy, I know you hold both bt & vod, I get the feeling you are leaning more towards bt lately. Do you think bt are the better investment?
Buy BT now after missing the rally? Way too late obviously
"Do you think bt are the better investment?"
I can only give an opinion. I currently see a risk to the Vodafone Dividend, if a new CEO decides to focus on cutting debt rather than appeasing shareholders. BT is easier to understand and I can see a path for them to grow the bottom line significantly through cost savings, once the FTTP and 5G rollouts are completed. I see both companies as safe long term investments, but I'm not willing to top up Vodafone until there's more certainty around the dividend, whereas I see BT as a safer dividend bet.
Can't believe this was worth 50b, 5 years ago. Bad management has led to big value destruction. Now a break up is the best case scenario.
selling at/near the bottom is not a good strategy but perhaps you guys should sell up and move on and stop moaning
https://investors.vodafone.com/debt-investors/bonds-outstanding-eu-and-us
I added all the debt up and I get € 49,901,314,917 total. Has debt gone up?
' Has debt gone up?'
return on capital employed has gone up too. some funny accounting going on as earnings arent increasing at anything like the same rate as debt
' Has debt gone up?'
Debt at H1 Report
" Borrowings principally includes bonds of €50,256 million (€48,031 million as at 31 March 2022), lease liabilities of €12,022 million (€12,539 million as at 31 March 2022) and cash collateral liabilities €8,395 million (€2,914 million as at 31 March 2022).
The increase in borrowings of €5,490 million was principally driven by an increase in collateral liabilities of €5,481 million and adverse foreign exchange movements on bonds of €3,109 million, which were partially offset by a decrease in spectrum liabilities of €1,899 million."
why are you looking at march 2022 thats a whole year ago
The collateral liabilities I take to be a timing difference which trues up at year end. With vantage cash and the continued in crease in return on capital employed, I think net debt is under €40Bn this year end, but thats just on the back of a *** packet. The only detail performance reporting I have is Gary's. If he is right, the net debt will be higher to offset the deterioration in performance to ensure the dividend is covered etc
It makes me laugh some of the words that get deleted on here. *** as meaning cigarette, for example.
VOD are likely to offer a dividend ....but..... in reality it may be a dividend as a result of asset sales , rather than a dividend as a result of a good growth performance. So if that is the case. it is a performance dividend cut but disguised with the aim to fool.
Bit of a tough one this to enter at the right time.
Thought you’ve found a good entry but blink and you’re 5% down. Seems to drop more than most and climb the least.
Anyway, I’m in and GLA
Dan, i wasn't moaning mate, just mentioned bt have been doing better lately and no i don't think i would buy bt as there is higher yielding shares out there, i have accepted the current situation for what it is, high inflation etc, and it has made me aware of which of my shares are the weakest and strongest, the weakest for me have been vod and directline and lloy have been up and down and can't make their mind up which way to go and the strongest have been aviva and lgen both have increased their dividend payments again, of course I'm hoping Vodafone will get better, but let's face it it's a bit messed up at the moment and hoping we can get back over a £1 again soon
'dividend as a result of a good growth performance'
Malone and Niels bet is that asset sales and consolidation are part of the telco business cycle and E& VOD is the vehicle to keep up with tech change or be left behind. After sale/consolidation, the remaining assets show healthy growth. IIs are giving up their shares to Malone , niel, E&
scaredycat
if you believe in the the often discussed idea of the forthcoming "Third Industrial Revolution" then telecoms will pay a big part in that ....I think the likes of Malone, Niel and E& do , and for them they are looking at 2025-2030 with start of it showing in 2024 ....big changes coming and they see what revenues the 5G connected systems can bring in
I am interested in buying into this low price period with the view that VOD will be a big contributor over the later parts of the decade ...so the more they get their costs sorted out and offload their smaller assets the better I think
I am not particularly concerned about their debt....the debt markets love lending to VOD ..they see them as good for them and they get reasonable borrowing terms as such....their annual revenue is more than their net debt
Wow looking at 2025 to 2030 so far away. This long of holding maybe difficult for some. You are taking 7 to 10 years.
'Third Industrial Revolution'
The way I think of it is that the product lifecycle is like a normal distribution curve. In the case of the 3rd industrial revolution/5g/ internet etc, the tail of the cycle is very very long and flat/ sloping down and skewed 30 years to the right. You might consider we are already in the 3rd phase with software defined solutions replacing hardware and moated regulation ensuring it isnt a chaotic process. It might be 2024 or 2025 before the SP reflects the longevity but the terminal rate has nearly settled imo.
mehmehmeh
well, this cycle of new 5G connectivity and everything related to it hasn't fully begun yet , but the tech is now there for it and VOD has all that ..... the new era of tracking every part of the logistics system and tracking every part of energy use within a product life etc is now beginning and the use all that data through 5G and connected to all areas of business are where the likes of VOD will increase their revenues.....5G driverless cars etc 5G wireless cameras on drones to transmit images straight to production editors located anywhere in the world....the scope is absolutely enormous ..and I guess 2025-30 is the period when it should really come into its own ...after this crisis we currently have passes ( they probably are creating a crisis in order that we realise we have to change the way we do things )
"Wow looking at 2025 to 2030 so far away. This long of holding maybe difficult for some. You are taking 7 to 10 years."
That's my minimum horizon.
Invest in well managed companies that are clearly going places and will own the world in 7 to 10 years. VOD ain't one of them. Previous management and investors lumbered it with too much debt. It now has to sell off key assets instead of investing for growth.
And never buy a company just because it pays a div.
" Previous management and investors lumbered it with too much debt. It now has to sell off key assets instead of investing for growth."
mole-man99
you would be surprised just how much VOD have invested , ready for the growth expectations of 5G and the IOT and universal connectivity.....they invest in future technologies that haven't even reached the markets yet
"Vodafone developing new satellite technology that can locate Internet of Things devices and autonomous vehicles within centimetres"
https://www.vodafone.com/news/technology/vodafone-developing-new-satellite-technology
They have just achieved the raising of $1.2 billion of new debt to replace existing debt .....how many companies right now in this crisis can go to their lenders and easily raise long-term debt to the likes of $1.2 billion? ..the debt markets love Vodafone.
Selling of stakes in the likes of Ghana and Hungary are immaterial in the great scheme of things ....
They create revenues around the same as their net debt .... when the next cycle of economic growth comes...companies like VOD will do very well in the new economy that will take shape
Their assets are worth a lot more than their debt ...there is too much concern shown about the debt IMO ...it gets a lot of attention when economic activity falls, but that will soon bounce back in a year or two
mole_man99
"Vodafone connects Europe's first smart and connected bus to 5G"
Vodafone provides the 5G connectivity, so that the bus is able to communicate in real-time with city infrastructure, such as buildings and other vehicles.
you need to wake-up to what is going on and what is coming ....
oops..the link
https://www.vodafone.com/news/technology/vodafone-connects-europe-first-smart-connected-bus-5g
Vodafone’s research and development team is working closely with AST SpaceMobile experts in Midland, Texas, on its test satellite, BlueWalker 3 (BW3), which successfully launched towards the end of last year.
“Once fully operational, it will allow Vodafone to provide direct-to-mobile phone coverage for customers in regions with little or no terrestrial signal,”
Vodafone is also ideally positioned to capitalise on the surge in demand for managed satellite services by enterprise customers, like utility companies, and the launch of new technologies
The strength of Vodafone’s partnerships means it has access to third party services to offer Internet of Things-type services over satellite connectivity. “Whether you are in utilities, banking, retail, oil and gas, environment monitoring or farming, having continuous access to an IoT service is essential,”
https://www.vodafone.com/news/technology/vodafone-rising-star-has-her-feet-on-the-ground
The satellite thing is a good example of why I got tired of VOD. Their single satellite joint venture will hardly register against 3500 starlink sats expanding monthly to 42000.
The point is, spaceX have spent less lobbing satellites into space than VOD have paid out in divs. They could of been investing instead of building €120bn of losses and substantial debts to pay out divs.
Can they make outsize profits moving forwards. I doubt it.
I wait to see if a new CEO arrives with a credible strategy, and plans to implement the strategy.