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Hello fleccy. Maybe it's because it isn't something you would normally pay attention to? Very wise fleccy, so probably best ignored then? There is no way in the long run America A.D.R. prices can screw the L.S.E. vod share price. In the long run it is driven the L.S.E. Of course America can influence the L.S.E. but that is the case for non A.D.R. shares as well. But as you said you don't remember seeing such a concentrated drop before, so a one off perhaps. Surely, just constantly blaming the Americans is pretty pointless?
Maybe It's because it isn't something i'd normally pay attention to.
I don't remember seeing such an concentrated drop, driven purely by ADR prices.
"Good old America screwing the shareprice again !!!!"
You're correct, my Vod and Lloyds stock both show a sharp drop, whereas BT has now de-listed in the US and didn't show the same drop.
Good old America screwing the shareprice again !!!!
Well I must confess my Friday prediction smacks of desperation, but at least vod is beating the f.t.s.e. today. Can we end up today?
Nothing is ever written in stone with financial markets - all you can do is look at the balance of probabilities and have a strategy where the balance of probabilities and/or the risk/return are in your favour. The only thing that has been consistently true from the time markets began to date, is that economies keep growing and equity markets go up over the long term. Different sectors/countries will fair better or worse during different market conditions/cylces. Total returns on US markets have been significantly higher than UK markets for the last 13 years, but that hasn't always been the case, and may or may not be the case going forward. Valuations are higher in the US for variety of reasons, but it's mainly due to the US having had higher economic growth during that period so investors are buying on anticipated future profits, and also the perceived 'flight to safety' in buying mega cap stocks denominated in US dollars. If you remove one or both of those factors, then US stocks could take a right beating. The FTSE has much lower valuations as they are bought closer to current profits with not much growth factored in. If the US and UK economies both flatlined, then from a valuation perspective the US should take much more of a beating that the UK, but if sentiment turns in the US, it turns globally so I don't think we'll see the markets going in opposite directions. FTSE has been far more resilient that the US since January, but that's mainly due to the US markets having a much heavier weighting towards tech which has done badly and the FTSE being much more weighted towards energy and basic resources which have done well with soaring commodities prices.
My decision to sell was a personal one based on my own circumstances and I did it last week before the big drops Friday and this morning. That move by no means guarantees me greater success over the longer, but it did lock in a lot of profit that I didn't want to risk losing. I'll still keep adding to funds every month in my pension as I won't be touching any of that money for a while and I know that strategy has the highest probability of being profitable over the longer term, even if it it doesn't have the highest probability of being the most profitable. My trading capital is different story and most of that is in cash now. I'll wait until there's blood on the streets before I deploy too much of that, even if that means waiting a while. They are two very different strategies, but between them other aspects of my situation, it means I'm covered for all eventualities although some will be more profitable for me than others.
I know people like binary answers and some of what I am saying may sound contradictory, and it is, but that's the whole point - none of us know exactly what's going to happen and when. We need to accept that and build that uncertainty into our long term plans.
Anyway, best of luck to all of you - I need to get some work done!
"Markets have to drop around 30% at some point to get back to their long term trend lines."
Compound, I respect your views and I also understand the saying, "when the US sneezes the world catches a cold", but the FTSE hasn't seen the same overvaluations seen within the US markets over the last 10 years.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE?comparison=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI%2CINDEXSP%3A.INX%2CINDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC&window=MAX
It isn't written in stone that the FTSE will follow the US down, and various stocks may benefit from a rotation between markets, sectors and categories of stocks. You could be right, but jumping out now doesn't guarantee success since the FTSE is currently undervalued anyway.
Just be careful out there. Earnings season so far is a bit worrying. 80% of US companies are still beating forecasts, but not by quite as much, and misses are getting punished far more heavily than beats are getting rewarded. That’s a classic sign of the end of a bull run/start of a bear market.
Markets have to drop around 30% at some point to get back to their long term trend lines. I didn’t think that would happen for another year or so, but with inflation showing no immediate signs of slowing down and the Fed getting increasingly hawkish by the day, there’s a good chance that could happen sooner rather later, and whatever happens in the US markets will be replicated over here.
If good earnings reports aren’t pushing the markets up, then the only things that can are a sudden drop in inflation figures or peace in Ukraine, and neither of those look likely over the next few months.
VOD also haven’t delivered any major deals and seem to be running out of options. They might pull a rabbit out of the hat but if they don’t I can see this dropping back to at least 120 next week, and if markets continue to decline it could easily be testing the lows of 2021 or even 2020 again.
Nothing is certain of course, but too many downside risks for me at the moment. I’ve made some good money on VOD and other shares/indexes in the last year but I sold out of nearly everything (including VOD) last week and will wait and see what happens over the next few weeks/months. Nothing looks particularly cheap to me at the moment and I’ll wait until it does.
Sorry if that’s sounds a bit doom and gloom, but that’s just how I see things at the moment. Good luck all whatever your strategy.
Well done mole-man.
I was miles out last week but I'm going to stick with my strategy of being overly optimistic and go for 134p next week.
Way to go Dan hope you win this week need to cash in some profit
Prediction Guesses for 29/04/22
maybe a bit of a bumpy start for this week, so hope we can make it back towards the end
Dan has the highest prediction for this week, so come on Dan we all want you to win
robleo 1.27
offmessage
daniel 135.9
FredRubble 123.25
mole_man99 1.25
sotonspike 135.8
csdi 123.6
123.25 for me for this week as a temporary blip!
I think over diversification is the reason most people cannot outperform.
I know it's more disky but over diversifying dilutes your winners albeit also magnifies losers.
If you pick the right shares, lower level of diversification is key much better returns.
If you wanna play it safe, you diverfisy tons! But you won't get much out of it - maybe 5-7%.
I am not sure if that is worth the effeort. But each one to their own and best of luck with your strategy
Csdi, well the pressure is all on you now? to prove us all wrong But best of luck
Thanks to Fleccy, Compund, Robleo, Dan et al. Great to see so many constructive criticisms/ideas.
Makes a change from most other shares I chat about.
GLA - CSDI
Your right Dan leave to the professionals....so will put on the tin hat, shut my eyes and hope for the best lol.....sure it will bounce back have been looking at AAL there share price has dropped like a stone over the last week and am looking to get into a mining stock think if this hits 130 will take it as my average is 129 was hoping for 140+ but this seems to go down more then up.....hope i don't sound to much like your besty Mikey
It’s been a while since I’ve been on here but just read a few posts and thought I’d give my thoughts …
The odds are only in your favour with a buy and hold strategy if you’re diversified. Anything can happen to a sector/company so having a buy and hold strategy on a highly concentrated portfolio of a few shares is extremely risky. Buying and holding VOD long term to date would have produced much lower returns than a diversified approach.
Buying and holding diversified funds / indexes over the longer term has always worked to date. You either need to be really lucky or put some hard graft in to outperform the indexes over the longer term. Most PIs don’t outperform for a variety of reasons, although the main ones are a lack of diversification, not knowing when to cut their losses, or trying to trade ranges where they are risking more than they can gain.
Nothing wrong with a bit of trading and banking some profit. You don’t need to be an expert in predicting exact price movements, but you do need to understand risk/return and risk management. It’s all well and good spotting a trading range, but what if it breaks out to the downside? Are you going to cut your losses and sell or hold? If you are going to hold then how far could it drop? Playing a range of 115-140 on VOD might make sense if you’re buying at 115 and looking to make 25. Say your downside is 95 which is 25 away, so risk/reward is equal. Playing a range of 45-50 to make 5 when your downside is 25 or a 20 loss means your downside is 4 times bigger than your upside. Your alternative of course is to use a stop loss and crystallise a loss when it drops out of the range, but be very wary of price spikes which are often designed to take out your stop loss before reversing direction, especially on spreadbetting accounts.
SB accounts are great for short term trading as the transaction costs are generally lower, although that will depend on which contract you choose and how long you keep your position open for. Daily funded bets have lower spreads, but you pay daily interest, which should currently be around 3.5% pa. That’s nothing for a few days/weeks, but eats into your profits if you hold for months. Futures contracts have higher initial spreads but you don’t pay interest so are better for longer term holds. I’ve used both on VOD.
Tax free profits can also significantly boost total returns if you’ve used up your allowances elsewhere.
If lower transaction costs and tax free profits are enough, then SB doesn’t have to be more risky than an ISA/share dealing account as you don’t have to use leverage. Eg, if you wanted to buy 10,000 VOD shares at 1.27, then you could either use £12,700 cash in an ISA(plus transaction costs), or put £12,700 in SB account and go £100 per point. If you do use leverage, run separate calculations to make sure you’ll have enough cash to cover your worst case scenario and be prepared to take the loss if it gets there. If you don’t do that then you wil
Fleccy I hope you are right, and we will find out how well it's doing on the 17th may, and of course we are hoping this doesn't go tumbling down to the £1 shop like last year
"unless of course you really are convinced Nick Read is as good as you make him out to be ?, but that choice is yours of course, so we will just have to hope it will improve, the share price certainly hasn't improved since Nick Read took over in 2018, but you may think differently about that"
Vodafone are being pressured to reorganise by the big players, the not so veiled threats against Reid are part of the same strategy. In my opinion, It suggests some big players are wanting to inflate the stock price over the next couple of years, probably with the intention of taking profits. If my speculative guess is correct, and Vodafone succumbs to the pressure we could see some good upward price momentum in the medium term. I can't see Vodafone going any lower, unless there's something hiding out of view.
" The most likely way to make money is to buy & hold."
That's my thinking too, Ive spent a lot of money topping up shares since Covid and Ukraine, now I'll just collect the dividends and await the eventual price recovery of UK shares. My assumption for VOD is somewhere between 16 and 230p, BT over £3, and Lloyds 70 to 80p.
Probably the best advice anyone could give you Dan, is don't put all your eggs in one basket, unless of course you really are convinced Nick Read is as good as you make him out to be ?, but that choice is yours of course, so we will just have to hope it will improve, the share price certainly hasn't improved since Nick Read took over in 2018, but you may think differently about that
And there was me thinking this was a light hearted chat forum, Still I suppose it saves me the cost of buying the financial times to read that article uplifted for free. Come on, give us your opinion, right or wrong, don't just uplift?? He is just copying spud on advfn, but not as good?
Fleccy. You know as well as I do, brokers make most of there money from investors who keep changing there mind, buying & selling, buying & selling. The most likely way to make money is to buy & hold. Of course you may lose, but it is all about costs, unless you are more clever than the next guy? Me against you (the next guy) I have no chance ???? & with no disrespect, I think the same for CSDI?! All served with a bit of sarcasm salt!!!! There is far too much of this," If I buy it is bound to fall,but if I sell it is bound to rise" nonsense on here. Give us a break you lot? The stock market is for positive thinkers, not negative thinkers.
Another shareholder said that he was “disappointed” that Vodafone had “missed opportunities”. He urged the company to crack on with deals noting that in some markets, antitrust considerations mean that there are limited numbers of options. “If you reject an opportunity and someone else does it, you’re limiting your options and putting yourself into a corner,” he said.
Harry Richards and Adam Darling, managers of the Jupiter Corporate Bond Fund, which has a position in Vodafone’s debt, said “we appreciate management’s intentions to simplify and de-lever the business” and that they were broadly comfortable with the company’s strategy. But they added: “We would like to see some tangible progress through actual news of deals.”
Some investors are pushing for Vodafone to sell a stake in its infrastructure group Vantage Towers, which it spun out last year. Read has been clear that he is currently seeking a deal for the towers business, with a preference to pursue an industrial merger with Orange’s Totem business, or Deutsche Telekom.
Most investors argue that a towers deal will make a material difference to Vodafone’s performance, reducing debt while freeing up cash to invest. Other telecoms groups like Altice have spun off towers businesses at rich valuations.
PSAM’s Schoenfeld said that he wants the board to “direct management to emphasise a significant cash transaction for Vantage”. This would “transform Vodafone’s balance sheet, narrow the sum of the parts discount and facilitate the pursuit of new strategic options,” and potentially a capital return to shareholders, he added.
One shareholder said that while a change in chief executive might set Vodafone back again in terms of missed opportunities, “if Read doesn’t get something done soon with the towers?.?.?.?then his days are numbered”.
Vodafone said in a statement that it remains “open and pragmatic when considering in-market consolidation” and it is “exploring multiple opportunities across a number of markets”.
The statement added: “We will not execute fire sales and we’ll always be seeking value accretive transactions that clearly benefit our shareholders.” Vodafone said that it regularly updates shareholders on its strategy and will do so further at its full-year results next month.