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When you posted the market hadn't opened, opens at 09.30 over there and 14.30 over here
Waiting now to take direction from Canada, can't get away from the fact that todays news was good though
Fundamentals look good, not sure how I missed this one on my watch list but I'm in anyway.
We all said it was a bargain at 28p before Xmas :)
45p now :)
40p!!!
Balance sheet
As of December 31, 2019, the Company was in a strong financial position, with a net working capital surplus of approximately US$37 million (CDN$48 million).
Has to be the location of the gas fields but at 1000km away from any conflict zone won't be involved, Trump needs Allies in the region with Iran in his sights so expect an improvement in relations with Turkey
Cheers for summary Sweepie.
Agreed, looks very solid - cant really see whats holding this back really.......No debt!
TSX up 7.5% yesterday so lets see eh.
No expert but couldn't see anything wrong with that RNS, ticked nearly every box
Strong financial position
Share price near cash levels
Shallow gas plays more than covering all costs
Production increasing with a 22% increase over the previous quarter
Revenues increased in Q4 2019 due to a combination of higher production and gas prices
Every deep well stimulation to date in the Thrace basin has successfully resulted in gas flowing to surface.
Technical evaluation and reservoir modelling work is ongoing with joint venture partners
Probably see a better reaction in Canada than AIM though
Thanks for the welcome, earache.
An interesting question over what is the greater risk - geopolitics or commercial potential?
As you say: '...Trump's actions since Sept have panicked the markets and mainly caused an 85% sp drop despite our improving assets showing that politics rather commercial potential is the greater risk....'
I agree with that, that it is geopolitics that has caused the slump in our share price - but my view (and I hope Equinor's view) is that the market has got this seriously wrong. Shareholder's have panicked, the fall is way overdone, and this has created a fantastic buying opportunity.
The basis for this view is that the Turkish Lira has held pretty steady over this period (with a slight downtrend over the last five years). Thus the professional currency traders are not perturbed by these events, but only some PI's in a small, fairly unknown share.
It is not our distance from the Syrian border is the problem here, nor the problem with doing business with a US-sanctioned country that will effect Equinor's global business in hiring americans and doing business with the US (like Serica, I expect some kind of dispensation would be negotiated); but more, it is that our revenue is largely in Turkish lira, so a strong fall in the Lira would reduce our revenue and thus the commerciality of the project. I think that is where the sanctions threat mainly lies. If so, then we have to ask how aggressive and damaging
would such sanctions be. And my view is that the US would not want to destabilise its NATO ally at the crossroads of Asia/Europe/MiddleEast; so sanctions would be highly targeted rather than damaging the economy overall, and thus crashing the Turkish Lira.
I think (hope) Equinor will take a similar view. Thus their main concern will relate to the commerciality of the field; and sanctions will be of far less concern.
I think the BoD's recent share purchases reflect this view. Too, I expect Tim Chapman also took this view when accepting his NED role.
Fingers crossed.
Laptop - your information needs updating with the material on the 3Q2019 webcast of 13/11/19 (see their website - investors - financials - Q32019 results - webcast transcript):
- 2020 they will be reporting in US$
- end of year they will have about C$45m cash, no debt, and revenue of about $3m a quarter.
- the C$100m free carry is now over. With Dev-1 testing and further work programme VLU will have to pay 31.5% of the cost.
- they have the money to fund their share of a 2020 work programme (perhaps 3 wells?), and possibly beyond. But these wells are expensive, both deep and probably horizontal.
- In a few months time the major risk will be addressed, being will Equinor go ahead with the project, or drop out.
- If they go ahead (which I expect), I wouldn't be surprised to see the share double on the news. However, operations will probably be run by Equinor, and VLU will have to meet their share of costs at the speed that Equinor requires; thus VLU may have to raise funds earlier than expected. This is where Tim Chapman comes in.
- If they drop out, then the SP will take a short term hit, but they will still have C$45m in the bank, a production income of C$3m a quarter, and an important asset that awaits development. So would probably have a value of about 30p anyway (though sentiment would keep it lower for a while).
Laptop, don't get me wrong - I've taken a small opening stake here. But investors need to research the risks thoroughly. A good place to start is the company website - investors - lse listing - april 2019 prospectus - key risks page 11 onwards.
My view is that the reward outweighs the risk - but it is high risk.
The 30 - 33p director purchases in December, and the recent signing-up of Tim Chapman, make me think the bottom is in now.
GLA.
https://twitter.com/laptop1515/status/1216332868873605120?s=19
Huge potential here in my opinion and I was buying last week at these lows
Some useful research:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2020-01-10/dangerous-unraveling-us-turkish-alliance
Worked sell as well, TSX down by 9% currently, back in tomorrow for another top up
This time by 7.14%, explains the decline on AIM
welcome to the party. have some patience and you will highly rewarded :D
Bought some of these today
Just found a post from lower down which explains everything
Vle 4 bagger don’t wait
Working capital $52 million .60c per share , 1p reserves $26 million +WC, thats worth .90c per share. plus 2p reserves $61 million, $1.61 share. Full carry by statoil aka Norway, for $100 million US investment they can earn 50% of the play. FID (Final investment decision by them isn't slated until Q1 2021) So right now you get everything for free and even cash at a .12c discount (.12c is 20% discount). Last bought deal was for $60 million at $5.70. There is no worries about holding cash, especially from a fully carried gas operation that turns a profit. Friday was tax loss selling with anon pounding it up the....
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.vle&postid=30461589
As far as I can see at around cash levels, drop on worries about Turkey falling into war and falling gas rates but company said that best gas flow is running at deeper levels, recent director buys at 30p, higher director buys at around £1.40p? broker note target of £5.40 hopefully means that hopefully further steep drops will be avoided but new to company. Better if comment comes from other resident posters who might have a better handle on the situation
Hsppy with 5/10% daily increases
Let the party begin
Moving up nicely,limited stock available
36/38 nice
Just filled, had to pay a premium
Happy New Year