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2 extracts from SS's speech to SCC's 1st planning committee meeting of 29/06/20:
... Should we prove commerciality, and we would know this within months, not years, ...
There is one further material consideration unique to Loxley; it is one of the few identified
developments that, in the success case, and with your support, can deliver these outcomes in the
timeframe required to make a real difference when the UK and Surrey needs it most ...
https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/SS%20Loxley%20Speech.pdf
At the time of UKOG's Volumetric study RNS of 21/09/20, UKOG was planning to drill Loxley-1 about a year later as follows:
In the event that planning consent for the Company's appraisal and long-term testing programme is granted ..., and Covid-19 permitting, the Company seeks to drill the Loxley-1 well in the second half of 2021.
2 years later, think they may seek to make up some of the lost time, by finalising the pre-planned farm-out programme asap and pressing on while either Sunak or, much more probably, Truss is the PM.
Brillo, don't forget "potentially".
;)
Now, there's a good word for this share 'Hope'
Hopefully turkey news coming
Any one bothering to flog 'strong buy '
How's Isle of White and Turkey performing lately.
Sorry, shouldn't mention those!
Rereading that post I guess I should say:-
'Ocelot must be dismayed that the market cap of Angus, who's main asset is the Saltfleetby Field' is about £33mm.'
Which attributes zero value to Brockham that initially was producing about 50 bopd from the Portland (UKOG about 60bopd at HH).
To expand further on ocelot's bizarre valuation of Loxley - similar to the claims being made in 2015 to 2017. He has previously claimed using recoverable gas times current gas price helps compare field against field.
However.
Angus has a nearly fully commissioned gas export facility at Saltfleetby on a field thar has wells, a production history well defined and a large positive following making all sorts of claims to bolster the share price (including you know who).
So it is on the verge of starting to produce the 2P reserves of 31BCF, an audited number.
Yet the market cap is about £33mm.
UKOG has an appraisal of a structure that they assert is an extension of the Godley Bridge- 1 discovery which is updip of the declared dry well (Alfold) they say has a 26ft gas column. The area has significant issues with depth conversion which according to previous applicants requires further field work to better calculate static corrections- UKOG phased matched the data - easily performed in seismic interpretation packages.
According to the published Xodus figures Loxley-1 will test whether the 32BCF of unrisked net mid case recoverable gas attributable to UKOG in PEDL234 exists.
Ocelot must be dismayed that the market cap of the Saltfleetby Field is about £1mm per BCF with multiple wells, proven production history, fully installed infrastructure and with audited reserves which is about to deliver gas to the grid.
But how he has the nerve to post here a valuation of about £50million per BCF of untested, unaudited recoverable gas based on a letter to Jeremy Hunt, IDK.
Ocelot,
Seem to remember similar calculations for the value of the Kimmeridge.
Ahhh a beachbum.
Lolol.
I've been invested here a lot more than you.
Is that how we're measuring one another now?
At least i am invested here....anyway off to the beach now, enjoy your day ...sado
My original post of 16/06 updated in full:
On the basis of the figures provided by SS in his letter to Jeremy Hunt of 10/06, the gross value of Loxley fell into the range of (43-70bn cubic feet x £15 per 1,000 cubic feet =) £645m to £1.05bn.
The price of natural gas has risen sharply since SS's letter.
Yesterday's closing ICE price for the front month of 490p per therm is equivalent to £50.81 per 1,000 cubic feet (multiply by 10.37).
On this basis, Loxley's gross value falls into the range of £2.18bn to £3.56bn.
(note: the commerciality of Loxley gas remains to be confirmed).
Change......see you're on early ramp-shift, trolling. Poor love.
And I'm potentially worth £138.9Tn.
That's just from collecting all of the diamonds that rain on Uranus (sic).
Following the SoS's grant of UKOG's appeal, I posted a valuation of Loxley's potential gross value of £1.14bn to £1.86bn, based on the front month natural gas price of 256p at the time.
Updating this valuation for yesterday's front month close of 490p gives a valuation of Loxley's potential gross value of £2.18bn to £3.56bn.
I hope the nurses can calm ocelot down tonight - the excitement must have been more than the calculations of what billions of barrels of oil x any oil price you care to guess came to when ocelot first invested for the long term.......
All I need to say is garbage in, garbage out.
The present value of £2bn discounted at 10% pa over Ibug's 8 years to 2030 (his post of yesterday of 16:10) is (£2bn x 0.4665 =) £933m.
PS: I haven't updated my figures for Loxley recently but, at a guess, on the basis of current natural gas prices, its potential gross value (before operating costs, therefore) is of the order of £2bn.
Ocelot,
has there been an RNS or tweet I've missed about all these 'potential' farminees being announced?
and as for this complete BS from UKOG:-
"the significant Loxley Portland gas discovery, assessed to be the second largest gas accumulation ever discovered and flow tested in the UK onshore" (UKOG's home page)"
There is no Loxley Portland gas discovery.
The Godley Bridge well did flow gas at 1.44mmcf/d - hardly significant - but until Loxley is drilled there is no certainty that the Loxley structure exists and is connected to Godley Bridge (other mapping shows it as a seperate smaller feature with a shallower gas water contact) - and it's assessed, by using UKOG's map, to be the second largest gas accumulation.
UKOG haven't submitted their Loxley mapping to independant audit which would assess the reliability of this claim and risks associated with it. There's also the re-interpretation of Alfold which luckily has enabled it to be included within the overall closure. I suspect it will be an interesting topic of discussion in any farm out review. This has also meant the axis of the Loxley structure no longer follows the east-west trend of Godley Bridge and now heads ESE towards Alfold.
It's also imperitive for the Loxley structure to share the same gas water contact as Godley Bridge - I noticed this in the evidence in the appeal (SS evidence):- 'A gross gas column of 100 ft is considered by the Appellant as the minimum
necessary to establish a commercially viable accumulation.'
With regard to mapping if the gas water contact is higher then it's very possible that even if it closes and has gas the column won't be enough.
Thats the same home page that announced HH was of national importance.
No wonder there are no takers fror Godley Bridge 3
By rejecting UKOG's application, is it possible Surrey CC's planning committee rendered an important service to UKOG?
Had UKOG sought one or more farminee(s) for Loxley 2 years ago, the prices for natural gas would have borne no comparison to those prevailing today and Loxley's prospects would not have appeared nearly so exciting.
In current circumstances, there should be no shortage of players interested in "the significant Loxley Portland gas discovery, assessed to be the second largest gas accumulation ever discovered and flow tested in the UK onshore" (UKOG's home page).
I'm not even sure he believes himself anymore.
Oceldo you believe what ss says??
Simple question
Ocelot,
As you sort of say it's a contract price speculators are prepared to make 'now' - probably for relatively small quantities of gas. There may be winners and there may br losers.
It almost certainly won't be the actual price. I wonder 4 years ago what prices were contracted for August 2022?
So quoting a price for almost certainly relatively small quantities of gas for delivery 4 years away is pointless, as is quoting a price for any time soon because UKOG won't have any sales gas 'soon' - and may never having any sales gas.
PPS: an assumption that the price of natural gas over Ibug's 8 years to 2030 will be zero is NOT a reasonable assumption.