Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hi mixster. Thanks for providing the links to your Twitter postings. I now see what you are driving at. We certainly don't yet know the seaward limits of the West Newton discovery but, peaking personally, I don't think it will extend offshore. Nor, of course, do we know much about the undrilled prospect to the SE, which I believe is Spring Hills. There may be a clue in the fact that no water was apparently seen in the Kirkham Abbey reservoir below the gas in the A-1 well, nor below the oil / condensate in the A-2 well. Coupled with the KA and Cadeby Formations being carbonate bodies within the otherwise mainly salt and anhydrite Zechstein Group, this makes me think that WN may be a stratigraphic accumulation, rather than being a structural trap. This would make it harder than usual to map using conventional geophysical methods, so maybe we can expect some geological surprises in every well, including the B-1 well.
Hey GreyPanther.. I don't see that as a disagreement.. You just want clarification right lol. ;-)
Given my hands are sore from typing today please look at my tweet a while ago that shows the PEDL and Anglo Dutch. Yes the PEDL is meant to sit in it.. But from the oil and gas discovery in A2.. we are trying to follow the bread crumbs to see if it extents potentially to the coast... Which would tell you there's more to come. I've first raised the extents way back in 2019.. Again another good call.
https://twitter.com/MightyBelle68/status/1280510317630554121?s=20
Anothet interesting tweet on Drax power station. Bit speculative on my part but it shows there must be gas reserves in the area or why do it.
https://twitter.com/MightyBelle68/status/1264468653895868416?s=20
Remember West Newton was always about the GAS. Oil was a bonus so don't get fixated on it.
https://twitter.com/MightyBelle68/status/1264479843476889601?s=20
Let's not forget the gas infrastructure
https://twitter.com/MightyBelle68/status/1264495841294745602?s=20
Yes course I called it.. Sept 19 lol
https://twitter.com/MightyBelle68/status/1169556216453795845?s=20
Hope this help GreyPanther.. Gla Mix
Hi there mixster. It's not often that I don't agree with something you've posted but In today's 10.18 post you said: "Prove those extents into the Anglo Dutch basin and bingo"... Maybe I don't understand exactly what you meant but, long before WN-1 was drilled, the Humber Basin was known to lie at the extreme western margin of the Anglo Dutch Basin, aka the Southern Gas Basin. The Kirkham Abbey and Cadeby formations at WN are very similar to what's been found offshore in Quad 47 immediately east of WN. Anyway, maybe I'm being a bit pedantic, but WN definitely lies (just) within the Anglo Dutch Basin. Sorry if I've misunerstoof what you were getting at. GP
BTW Selfish... the initial schedule and pre ground works activities that I put together was from trawling through planning applications, presenations and everything I could get to form a picture of what the schedule might look like. The activities all seem spot on but due to Covid etc.. the dates have slipped but it seems from DB's interviews that a spud date is locked in.
all the best Mix..
Jazuz.. look at all those posts from Mixster... plucking ramper if you ask me lmao... ;-)
lol Selfish.. magic circle... class. Yes I think we are close.. but honestly.. they will be taking core samples in B1 as they go... theyll know come TD or have a very good indication of how good it is and I'm sure at that point, interested parties would be notified. If they where to continue and complete EWT on B1.. let alone B2 yes Id say late Dec or Jan as you indicated. Thats of course if they complete EWT on B1.. lets see how it plays out.
Fingers crossed and sweating it... seriously am.. Mix
ah Jazuz AJames.. I thought I was home and dry and you hit me with another lmao. I need Bramhill on here to answer these lol .
So in short... I posted this a few weeks ago on whether we would drill B2 or not. See the post below. What I'm not sure on is if they will drill and case B2 when the conductor rig is there doing B1.. or do B1 with the Conductor Rig.. move to A2 to do EWT and move back if needed to do B2.. or if B1 is successful.. they wont need B2. So again in short.. the 2 cellars are done.. I'm just not sure if they would take the time to drill and case B2. I think do B1.. with conductor rig and move it A2 right away and let the big rig in. Not 100% so good question.
All the best Mix..
right I'm off... catch you all later... gla Mix
PS.. heres the post I put out a while back...
In 2013 Rathlin Energy drilled the West Newton 1 well to a total depth of 3.150m into the Dinartian Carbonate section of the Carboniferous. West Newton B1 well, Rathlin Energy recognises up to three potential reservoir target horizons. These Include the Permian age Brotherton, Kirkham Abbey and Cadeby formation.
These formations will be encountered at depths ranging between 1.500 2.000m The wells estimated iota depth will be approximately 2.100 metres. The West Newton B1 well will not drill to or test any deeper formations such as the Bowland shale would be found at a depth of over 2900m. West Newton B1 is designed to further appraise the Kirkham Abbey and in particular the Deeper Cadeby where oil is though to be at its optimial. I have tweeted diagrams on how the WN A2 only touched the flanks of the Cadeby so you can see the interest in test the Deeper part.
Drilling expected to take between 6 and 12 weeks and will run 24 X 7
The second borehole WN B2, may be required to investigate and test the extents of any potential petroleum reservoir encountered during the drilling and testing of the first borehole. The second bore hole may also be required to investigate and test a formation that, through interpretation, was predicted but not encountered during the drilling of the first bore hole.
The second of the two exploratory boreholes will be drilled and constructed in a similar way to the first. The exact design and construction will be determined using information obtained during the initial drilling operation.
So in Summary.. WN B1 drill to 2100. From the finds and analysed in conjunction with the WN A2 data, Rathlin may decide to drill WN B2, is they feel its required as part of the exploration drills.
Blimey mixster, are you a member of the magic circle? You turned 23 weeks into 10 before my very eyes!
Seriously though, you seem to have agreed with my timings, so mid January at the earliest for completion of drill of B-1 and testing of B-1 and A-2.
Ponkey absolutely right... its not all s h 1 te or bust. We have other great assets to move forward with. If B1 doesnt cut it.. we might drill B2 to learn more from the PEDL and then move to other sites to explore more like the duplicates. West Newton for now is the main money shot for investors to take a serious profit.. if B1 hits the target.
Checkout.. glad you enjoy the spoof from me lol ;-) all good.
Gwywin.. glad you are still here along with a very long list of Lthers... fingers crossed and sweating it.... Mix
Jazuz Selfish.. have you not got an easier one to ask me... my heads wrecked ;-) lol
Right if I pull out the estimates I did a few months ago and assuming that the ground works are more or less complete and equipment is landing next week... this is the timings from what I can see... on a blue sky day of course when everything goes to plan..
Pending Start - Conductor Rigging on B1 Drill (2 weeks)
======================================================
- Conductor drilling rig will be mobilized to site to drill a borehole to approximately 80m depth
- Conductor rig will be mobilised over a two to three-day period and remain onsite for approximately four weeks
- Casing and cementing of bore hold to the surface.
- Upon completion the rig will be demobilised and moved to WN A2
- Main drilling rig will be mobilised to site. Constructed over approximately eight to 10 days.
So once the Conductor Rig is assembled we should spud which I now reckon is... maybe last week Aug but probably 1st week Sept, after which - conductor rig will move to A2 to commence EWT.
Actual Drilling ( 8 weeks)
==========================
- Main wellbore, West Newton B-1(WNB-1),will be drilled to a total depth of approximately 2,100 metres
- Drilling of the main borehole is expected to take about seven to eight weeks.(Kirkham Abbey and Cadeby)
- Once the drilling operation starts, it is necessary that it continues 24 hours a day, 7 days a week
- Evaluation of the data acquired while drilling,
- WNB-1 well cased and made ready for further testing
- If petroleum is established during the drilling operation, Rathlin Energy may wish to undertake a ninety (90) day extended well test
So Main Drill of WN B1 will run in parallel with WN A2 EWT. My opinion is that A2 is tested to death and the money shot is B1. I don't believe partners are concerned on flow rates from A2 as the B1 would test the deeper Cadeby where they would hope to find more oil ans I would assume better flow rates.
I believe that if they prove the extents of reservoirs, that's end game... done as dusted as DB said... we'll monetise it. Not sure if at that point they would continue to complete Seismic or update the CPR. Remember Rathlin do all the work for a CPR... they have the data... companies like Deloitte only audit it and validate it. Rathlin could just as easy share the data with a major who would scrutinize it more than any audit.
All IMHO Selfish... I might be wrong... but I can list on my arm where I have been right and I'm hoping that track record continues..
All the best Mix
Mixster, David Bramhill said two to three weeks before the geotechnical rig arrives. Those works, he said, will take two, two and a half weeks. The drilling rig can then arrive, and the drill will take around 7 weeks. He said that following drilling, the EWT of B-1 will be able to start after about 4 weeks, and it should take around 4 to 8 weeks. If they move straight on to EWT WNA-2, that's another 4 to 8 weeks. I make that a minimum of 23 weeks, which takes us to the middle of January. Of course hopefully we should get an idea of what they've found at WNB-1 around the end of October, and an idea of what flows hopefully mid December.
I assume they'll then put a revised CPR together if they intend to sell, or consider exploration of Ellerby and Spring Hill so they can put together an FDP.
Do you agree with these timings Mixster?
I think we are all forgetting that B1 is not all s...and bust as DB pointed out we already have a large Gas discovery.
Can't believe that am able to buy sub 26.5 though also can't blame anyone taking a profit nothing wrong in that though don't believ we have got to a "risk " price or time yet and a good 10pts before we are in that area-imho
Lol Archie.. Yes agreed we'll find out soon enough. Counts for nothing if B1 doesn't produce. Count be we drill B2 next and have to look at Ellerby.
However if it comes in.. My money is on a flip. You need to look at what Connaught and Reabold have also invested in West Newton. They'd want a return for their shareholders also. Plus you need to examine the costs of developing the PEDL over 20 years. I've looked at all this and was the first to socialise that we'd flip it many moons ago. That interview confirmed it.
3 months and we'll all know Archie lol.. Good luck mate.. Mix
Flip it … agree with you totally – they have a plan.
If it (WN / B1) turns out to be a very different kettle of fish to what they thought – then I think they might well change that plan.
UJOs (& RBDs) responsibilities are to their shareholders. If they hit the jackpot I think there will be more longer term thinking going on rather than short term sell out opportunism.
Anyhoo, just my thoughts … the fun bit is we’ll find out soon
ATB
Hey Archie. Same clip.. 7:45..
AS - "Are you looking to work theses assets up and monetise.."
DB - "of course.. This is what juniors do"
We will flip this of the back of B1. Apart from DB trying to hide his smile at the fact he's sitting on a jackpot.. and the fact he said we'd monetise it.. How can I be sure. Well for a start he wouldn't make a comment on monetising it if the partners where not in agreement and if it was not the near term plan. He'd be talking about running 3D sesimic over the duplicates, Ellerby and Spring.. Getting a CPR completed.. Looking at planning to drill probably Ellerby next.. There's no planning in.
They will flip on B1 if it comes good. Note I will say with caution.. No one knows what B1 will turn out.. That's the risk we play.. But being 2.5km.. (not 2km as Gravey pointed out lol) and would indeed be unlucky. Prove those extents into the Anglo Dutch basin and bingo.
All imho of course.. Mix
yesterday proactive interview ...
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/925761/union-jack-oil-expects-to-be-drilling-at-west-newton-within-weeks-925761.html
4:07 before going on to quickly change the subject, DB's body language definately seemed to be wanting to say something more about "other prospects" in the PEDL183 stable. My feeling is that a positive result in the B1 Cadeby (& DB seemed quite buliish) would lead on the consortia wanting to poke other parts of the patch. After all what's the rush to monetise? Both RBD and UJO will have income streams from other parts of their portfolio and the risk reward from doing further work (given a B1 result) would seem to point one way.
It does indeed mixster thanks.
Hey Three stripes.. That's a great question.
Definitely DB wants to be a mid teir but not necessarily a producer. What we need to be a mid teir is good near term projects, cash and a bigger market cap hence me banging on about the magic 0.32p to give us 50 Mil MCAP.
If we flip West Newton for a tidy sum, which I'm expecting will be multiples of where we are at now should B1 prove up.. then that gives us cash to buy more projects.. Biscathorpe could be massive and we'll need cash to explore it more.. plus if we want we can productionise it.. That along gives us mid teir status imho. DB won't ever want to be an operator.. There are other companies out their that are great at that and we can farm in if we really needed. What UJO is great at is finding those near term projects and building strong relationships with the partners. West Newton for example was 2 years in the making before signing.
Hope this helps answer your question... Good luck Mix
Let's go with single figure weeks, lol.
I wanna know about Biscathorpe too ..
Let's not be too greedy here. But there's Wressle action too before we know it.
Get to see Andrew again.. : ) ... and our Dave.
I must say Dave did look a chirpy little fella earlier.
Mixster, you highlighted this part of the interview
7:45 in...
- AS - What will you do.. work up and monetize-
- DB - thats what juniors do
But did not DB recently reaffirm UJOs desire to be mid-tier so this could mean "that's what juniors do but we will not be doing that as we want to be mid tier." couldn't it?
LMAO... yes of course its the same as a 'few months' Heid but mine sounds shorter lol ;-)
Agreed Heid... but I do think we are down to single figure weeks to have an idea of whats there.. ;-)
all the best Mix
A little bit more patience here and we will cross our 0.30s
Need equipment to start rolling in and just get that bit closer.
What an exciting few months ahead of us we have .
Best of luck to Union Jack Oil and all the partners.
Hey Archie... just on your post...
"DB @ 1:57 If the presumed oil extends from A site to B site then ...
"it's back to the drawing board about how big it is and what we're going to do with it"
Yes I heard that but to be honest what that said to me.. is that his will be so big that we wont have a clue where to start with it.. in thats the PEDL would be to big for them to handle... just my thoughts. The strategy has been to prove up near term projects and flip them.
Holding tight for the flip... Mix
The mans a genius and some !
DB @ 1:57 If the presumed oil extends from A site to B site then ...
"it's back to the drawing board about how big it is and what we're going to do with it"
So, monetisation may be delayed (but in a good way)