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barchid
Should have been a little clearer in making the comparison with beef mince. If supermarkets only supplied British mince because tariffs made EU too expensive then animal welfare would be very much higher.
I have a background in livestock and know that standards here are certainly better than I have witnessed in Europe.
I’m not anti Europe by any stretch of the imagination as I live between France and the UK.
Same goes for supermarkets too, not as many best before dates on a lot of goods and customer service is at best average.
Again, slightly off topic I read that M&S see an opportunity with their clothing sales due to many high street retailers falling by the wayside. I’m sure the same applies to F&F
Leas
Good points but Rosewall was talking about welfare standards, I can still remember trailers of live lambs being burned to death for the benefit of TV by "French farners".
My case rests
Animal welfare is a concern for most consumers in the UK. Surely it would be better to produce our own beef mince in the UK rather than outside. The BBC used beef mince as an example yesterday quoting potential tax of 46%. I’m sure British farmers can produce cheaper than that, make a good income for them, undercut EU prices and allow TSCO to maintain their margin.
Slightly off topic, some big institutions moving away from energy stocks to plant based producers. Whether we like it or not plant based food is a fast growing market. Probably bigger in the UK than Germany, France or Spain. Another example of how Tesco could potentially gain from the UK leaving the EU.
Rosewall
Is it possible to keep to Tesco's prospects and not bleat about brexit ?
Most people here want to enhance their knowledge of the company and its prospects, or am I mistaken ?
There is no doubt that there will be opportunities to purchase goods from other countries but my concern is welfare standards as well as prices. As it stands, you need an IQ of 356 to identify products with palm oil. At least EU standards were common and in the main adhered to else hefty sanctions
Apart from initial supply issues, supermarkets will source outside of Europe if the item is cheaper. Can see a bit of panic buying in the Mew Year but by the end of Q1 things will be clearer.
As posted before , IMO if a shopper has a weekly budget of £150 a week then they will still spend the same amount. It’s about how they protect margins.
Tesco has remained strong throughout the pandemic, they will take Brexit in their stride.
Mr_Rooster
You are utterly correct but I merely used that exchange rate as an illustration that the Europeans were not the haves & we were not the have nots as stated because we could, for instance, as I pointed out go to Switzerland on a good holiday without needing a mortgage, which most of us would need now. Simple as that, last thing I want to be drawn into is a brexit barney, all I want to establish is an understanding of Tesco's prospects in the next few years, which personally I am bullish about due to their scale but especially their online presence.
I am on this board to try to make money
“ is how much our currency has depreciated against Germany...”
Barchid, currency values are just an instrument for making economic score like China deliberately devalues its currency. Look at the quality of life we currently enjoy and how it compares with 1973 or the other EU countries at present time. We are going through Brexit any way, just need to figure out where we are heading and what industry would likely to thrive in terms of investment.
Gavster
It actually was not quite as bad as you state, we joined/entered in Jan 1973. At that time £1 bought almost 8 deutsche marks, Put that into euro's is about 4 euro to £1, which is how much our currency has depreciated against Germany and many other EU currencies so we have not had an unalloyed success of the EU. We certainly did not enter it as paupers as you seem to imply, with that exchange rate Switzerland was a very popular holiday destination !
There were good points & bad points, as there are in any situation, financial services did well, heavy industry did badly, but life goes on whatever, so crying into your Tesco purchased beer should not really be an option.
We are where we are !
Hi Barchid
We already have a large share of South African farm produce and Argentinian Beef. So Yes, maybe supply can increase from SA and get smaller from Spain, and Thanet Earth should double in size. But these things will happen over time and if you can remember that far back, you will also remember how Britain was the 'Sickman' of Europe back then, when just about every job especially technology was higher paid within Europe than in the UK. I was reading through my Dad's pile of kept news mapers and magazines at the time and was shocked to see how Europe were definitely the haves and we were the have nots. It then stands to reason that prices would increase when joining the Single Market, but just as the prices in Switzerland are eye-watering as they are all much more wealthy than ourselves, there is also the effect of poorer countries printing themselves out of problems causing higher prices with inflation. Because the UK will have such an economic hit, then it stands to reason our prices will not be rising as a pulling up effect catching up with a richer market, but rather pulling down through inflation.
Brexit was always going to be this way. Businesses, economists and academics have persistently tried in vane to warn the UK public but all were ignored, and encouraged to be ignored by government and the right wing press alike.
Gavster
You make some good points here but one thing which you do not seem to have factored in is how much food we will be buying, after a relatively short time, from non EU countries which can supply food at much cheaper prices than the EU allows.
I am sadly old enough to remember how much food went up in price after 1973, it was a very significant amount, so much so that it had to be tapered in over a few years, due to (then) EEC subsidies to their inefficient farmers.
Argentinian beef for instance, much cheaper, as is South African, not to mention fruit being allowed in from countries who are in season when we are not. I'd back Argie beef against Irish any day, thanks very much !
So there will be swings & roundabouts, you may well be surprised at the high quality & lower costs of produce which for various reasons Brussels prices out of the market currently.
Jinan
I most definitely will not down play this disaster. I am under no illusions what this means.
I’m sure this year gets a nosebleed any time it gets near the £2.30 area,!
Now if we all had only put $5000 in Amazon in 1997 it would be worth $4 million now strewth!
I think you've wrong there...
IMO a 'No deal' is going to hit the people of the UK hard, but investment-wise, the money printing machine and infrastructure spending will be in full force, so IMO a good time to invest in solid companies, like Tesco.
EU = 60% of British Trade.
Average of 10% tariff on EU trade = 6% value of all UK trade so economy will roughly go down by 6%, supermarket prices will of course rocket by anything up to 50% as the tariffs get passed along the chain, each link, companies try to keep their percentage and earnings the same. The 2008-2010 period hit the economy much less but still caused a huge escalation of prices.
Also..."The highest 1% of income taxpayers account for 27% of all income tax" in the UK.
Boris has already stated "F....k Business' but made sure his Fox Hunting pals were not effected by the lockdown.
That speaks volumes.
This government has always aimed for a No Deal, the complication was how to make sure he could blame the EU.
We, he workers and middle class been sold down the river so that the elite few will keep their tax avoidance.
As an example. Jonathan Harmsworth still exerts his influence telling his readers how evil the EU is, so that VAT will stay out of printing and he'll keep his tax-avoidance status spending 6 months in France a year. Yes these principles could be opted out of as the UK always had power and sovereignty over any EU rules, but being the only fish swimming the other way in the largest market is not good for business or relations.
Consider Harmsworth's position.. Why would you have a newspaper like the Daily mail and preach remain knowing it could deplete your own fortune by 100s of millions ?
IMO It's obvious that Boris only wants to take care of the rich, as they pay most of the tax, but voting-wise all he has to do he pander to the odd policy switch due to Marcus Rashford tweets or saying whatever he thinks the public want to hear.
https://www.icaew.com/technical/tax/personal-tax/income-tax/income-tax-articles/uk-increasingly-reliant-on-super-rich-for-tax-income
Shame most people don't have their head above water
Food price inflation will hit alot of people
Please don't downplay it
Apparently it is estimated that food prices (I haven't found out if that includes non food prices e.g cleaning materials etc. ) will rise by 5%ish. That is 5% onto a very small amount of money currently spent on food (about 10% - 15% of the average household budget). This will not affect many with their head above water but will certainly hurt the poor.
Good to see John Allan taking the lead on how he sees the short term future post Brexit. As already covered briefly on the bb of possible shortages of fresh food and British shoppers selecting home produced food rather than the higher priced European produce as a result of tax.
Personally I prefer cheddar to Brie so not all doom and gloom.
Worth a read on the newsfeed which may help investors make a decision to buy or sell before the year end.
Off to my local Tesco to stock up on Chorizo ;)
I’m presuming from reading the rns, that the 11th February will in effect be the declaration date, so if you want the special dividend, and providing it gets shareholder approval, you’ll need to be on the register on that date. Payment on 26th February.
Special dividend is Looking like it will be paid on or around the 26th of February 2020 subject to shareholder approval at the general meeting on February 11
..... reminds me of another poster on a different BB!! In any event a very strange 1st post!!
Alpha86..Well that's factually incorrect they have skirted 2.60 this year and last...so not above 250 in 6 years is just plain wrong...so I don't think you should share your predictions if you don;t k now simple stuff like this and right on the heels of actually asking for advice on whether to sell or hold...and suddenly start offering investment analysis...no offence ...just an honest observation
Was over 2.60 this time last year.
Unsure whether tesco will make further gains it hasn't gone above 250 in 6 years so I am thinking this is the peak, time to sell and reinvest elsewhere where there is more scope for profit once the vaccine and brexit is sorted.
Doug
My thoughts too. If there are shortages then consumers will still spend their weekly budget on food. Buy more bananas if there are no strawberries. ;)
Alpha
No one can really tell you that. Some posters may point you in the direction of a company they are already invested in. It also depends on your personal circumstance. Tesco is a good defensive company in uncertain times but if you do want to take your profit then I would sit on cash until the world has control of this virus or look at another sector such as biotech.
Maybe ask yourself why you bought here in the first instance. Not a bad decision if you are in profit.