Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yes, I read about the AA over the weekend. May however be good for Trakm8 going forward.
I do have a question, generated by a comment on the other BB. Apparently, Trak have an appalling reputation within the industry. Now we know that there have been some engineering / recall issues with some of their devices, but they have what I would call a fairly stellar A-list of blue-chip customers, which seems to debunk the reputational questions. Or perhaps these companies are stuck because trak is 'bedded in' to their services.
What do people think about this? Are any of you in the industry? What can be said about Trak's reputation - objectively?
My comments would just repeat what everybody else has said. That said, what happened to the circa 40K new devices committed from last year. The number of connected units has not gone up that much (unless I have misread it).
Disappointed with AA news but .....
I suppose I should add, that I see no immediate danger of the company going bust, as we were told to expect. It's a fine balance but the upside potential here is huge, they just need to paddle to safety this year and next we should see the growth story aggressively continue.
Be good to see some new members of the BOD stick their hands in their pockets right about now...
agree with those comments a bit of jam tomorrow
sp nudging upwards
plus i would say the current sp basically assumes the company has failed and gone to the wall
so that basis it is overall a relatively good rns
ie we are not bust and potential for material upside
ingenie charge 35 quid non refundable per device
reviews keep racking up
Yes - it sounds like they're paddling away and staying afloat. I couldn't help but smile when I read "the Group expects revenue in the second half to be significantly higher than the first half" ...lost count how many times that's been wheeled out in RNSs over the years. But hey ho, this year it actually makes more sense, given C19.
The HSBC loan is a little concerning - I also wondered about the TAX/NI deferrals, in terms of the cash-debt position, and whether it masks a weaker position, but again seems to look OK on paper.
They just need to keep paddling away until the vaccine roll out and take up after which things will start to get back to normal as it were. People's shopping habits have changed for the good however and there's going to be opportunities when it comes to a growing delivery/fleet industry, IMO.
Surprised there wasn't more a rise today. I haven't bought any. I was looking for a more of a forward looking statement to motivate any purpose, so I'll continue to hold what I have and watch with interest.
GLA
potentially the bigger news of the aa looks set to be taken private at 35p per share.
once private then in my opinion they will make smart bd standard as part of their core offer
so looking like an interesting day overall
i would say overall ok to good
with a couple of points to cover off in the next 6 months
concerns
no fy guidance - not a complete shock given ld1.1
hsbc - good to get completed by next update
positive
cash ok
positive recent trading trend
costs very pleased with this
24 from europe
i will be pleased to see the back of 2020
on trak for a positive 2021
just think about the possible yr on yr metrics this time next yr.
Interims released. Excellent. Results pretty much in-line with my previous post although slightly better. Adjusted losses reduced to £0.3m, cashflow up to £2m, connections up to 253,000 and climbing. Most importantly, "the Group expects revenue in the second half to be significantly higher than the first half given current orders, even with a reasonable downside scenario taken into account for the ongoing impact of Covid-19." Overall tone of the report is very upbeat. Recovery looks to be taking shape.
One particular attraction for Microlise might be to get hold of Trak's AIM listing through a form of "reverse takeover", though I don't know how that would work in detail, and may in the end be overly complex. I seem to recall when Trak changed its auditors to Microlise's, it fuelled speculation about this being the ultimate intention. The AGM Q&A in September didn't give any clues either way:
"Q. When Microlise made its 'strategic investment' in Trakm8, back in 2018, both
companies suggested they would "explore exciting opportunities to collaborate".
Almost 2 years on, what progress has been made on this front?
A: Trakm8 and Microlise are competitors in some aspects and so have maintained
their independence to a great extent. We have collaborated on some purchasing
activity and we have shared opportunities if one or other of us is not well placed to
secure new business. We have exchanged some technology to improve the solutions
for both companies".
Whatever happens, confirmation that Trak has survived the worst of Covid is the minimum required of this week's update.
Yes I'd agree that a takeover is a worst case scenario e.g around 50p. However, I don't think Microlise would find it straightforward. I think a number of big players would be interested in bidding. Trakm8 have a blue-chip client list including the AA, Iceland, Sainsburys, Scottish Power, E.On, Direct Line, Lexis Nexis etc. It's very impressive and would add massive value to another company. Personally I believe that greater rewards lie ahead if they can turn their financial performance around. As you say, QTX are currently valued 24 times higher on similar revenues.
I see that Jon Furber, Trak’s impressive FD, has offered his congrats on the award. Trak clearly has some great tech and some juicy clients.
I also see that Furber has put M&A activity at the top of his CV. I wonder if he was taken on with a view to overseeing Trak’s participation in any long-overdue rationalisation in the tracking industry? It’s the obvious way of making Trak’s business instantly profitable (by taking out duplicated costs).
It seems that Microlise can see the potential, even if no one else can - Raza bought more shares in the summer – and Trak and Microlise have already identified themselves as natural bedfellows, so if a full-blown merger of the two has always been the intention, maybe the uncertainties of Covid put this plan back a year, but as we emerge from Covid, is now is the time to take this forward, I wonder?
With that in mind, the most important thing for me right now is for Trak to keep its head above water, to remain a viable business.
When you think that a comparable business like Quartix has a market value of £176m (rev £25m, gross profit £17m, gross margin 65%, op profit £6m) while Trak has a market value of £7m (rev £20m, gross profit £11m, gross margin 59%, Op loss £1m), an offer of as much as 50p would only value Trak at £25m, 1/7th of the value of Quartix. What a steal that would be!
That is how I feel about it. Company sponsors event/pays for table at event etc and low and behold they get nominated for something - not saying it is happening here but I have seen this happen. Like you say, good PR.
Good find and good PR. Although, I have to say I'm always suspicious of these things.
I assume it's simply an arranged publicity 'stunt'? Or am I being too pessimistic here>?
When you look into "fleet champions' the trail seems to go a little cold.
I suppose it’s asking a bit much for the H1 results to contain any pleasant surprises (to cancel out the unpleasant ones we’ve had to endure in recent years).
However it’s not unreasonable to hope that an indication of actuals for Oct and Nov will show a marked improvement over H1. This is what is needed, I think, to give some credibility to any encouraging forward-looking statement, without which this share will remain in the doldrums.
Thanks. Far more civilised board.
Good to see you here mouse.....
My focus will be on the forward looking statement, and any change in number of installed devices since the mid Sept. figure of 248,000.
No need to predict what we'll get. They told us in the Sept. trading statement two weeks before the half-year end. They pretty much gave us all the key figures so:-
Revenues should be around £7.2m, gross profit £4.3m/£4.4m (so not dissimilar to last year with the 8% improvement in gross margin to around 60%). Overheads will be roughly £4.8m (reduced by 30% from last year). That gives a loss of around £400,000-£500,000 at the interim stage which is a massive improvement on last year's adjusted loss of £1.5m, and tallies with their statement that adjusted loss is 75% down on last year. The unadjusted loss before tax will be just under £1m (55% down on the unadjusted £2.2m loss last year).
I've given up trying to predict what we'll get.
Time will tell.
See it's dipped back below on virtually no volume.
More strange price movements.
Quite happy as my other investments are flying away at the moment
I agree, £400k was the estimated adjusted loss back in June, but I'm hoping that was unduly pessimistic.
It wouldn't take too much additional revenue or cost savings to eliminate the loss.
The results need to exceed expectations if the SP is to recover any time soon.
thanks
they have already advised on a h1 adjusted loss
75% reduced from PY so my est is 400k
To me, a good half year result in the circumstances would be:
Revenue: £8m
Adjusted profit/loss: Breakeven
Net debt: less than £6m (excl IFRS 16), with all tax deferrals settled.
This would constitute an adequate base on which to build a respectable full year outlook.
so based on info
(400 to 600)k loss in h1
could this be recovered in h2 ??
would you view a fy profit as a good result if they can do it??
Here's hoping for a comprehensive update, as you describe. Given the price and uncertainty it is the least they could do.