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$1?
Relinquishing would mean losing out on $2B in expenses. That's why - as a last resort - TLW should sell the asset for $1 just to get a deal.
I do honestly think it would do all that's invested here a favour if it was relinquished, and we could move on with projects. It's just gone on too long now. Two things dragging us down is tax dispute and Kenya .
The more astute posters on here mentioned long ago that TLW relinquishing the asset was a realistic possibility.
I've been following pretty much every Kenyan government minister and Turkana local government minister who has ever posted anything about Tullow or oil on Twitter for quite some time now. Plus regularly searching for articles in this regard. There has always been something posted at least weekly, however since the 31 March deadline was extended there has not been anything. The last information article suggested that the government were auditing the expenses Tullow have claimed to have incurred and if they've followed the T&C's of the contract. This leads me to summise:
1) The government are looking for a way to weasel out of the contract and are trying to find out if they can find a break of contract to use as an escape clause.
2) The government are looking for a way to weasel out of the contract and are trying to find out what it will cost them to pay Tullow off.
3) Palms have been greased, deals done and now the paperwork is being put together for the 30th of June deadline, with an agreement being announced. Perhaps with the government having a decent sized stake in the project.
My take is option 1 is probably an unlikely scenario as governments generally get shafted when drawing up contracts with private enterprise and Tullow have more than likely adhered to the conditions to avoid default. Option 2 may be a possibility, as this could be a win for both sides e.g. if Tullow got reimbursed say $500m and Kenya got the oil back I don't think many people would complain. Plus Kenya appease the green agenda and get billions of investment. Option 3 could definitely be a possibility, especially given that Tullow got a free 50% to negotiate with.
So that's just my ramblings on it for what it's worth and am very interested to see Rahul's body language when he talks about it on the 16th of May, as I'd think by then he must have a pretty good idea of how it's going to go down. Approved or rejected, one way or the other I think we're going to get a decision by the deadline this time. Not long to wait now.
Given there's less than a month till the drillship sails away, I'd imagine they must have already completed drilling and are packing up. That begs the question as to what are the production numbers currently for Jubilee and TEN? Still nothing on the Ghana Petroleum Commission website, so are we going to get a nice surprise in the Kosmos Q1 update on 7th of May or in the Tullow trading update on the 16th of May.
https://www.tullowoil.com/investors/events/
https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-host-first-quarter-2024-results-and-webcast-may-07
If we assume the low estimate this drillship is costing Tullow $250k per day, which is roughly the equivalent of 3,125 bopd at $80 oil. As it is being released 9 months early, that's a saving of $67.5m ($52.5m in 2024). Enough to pay a dividend of around 3p per share, nearly 10% at the current share price. Not saying they're going to, however just putting it into context.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/as-noble-drillship-winds-down-its-drilling-gig-new-bundle-of-opportunities-springs-up-offshore-africa/
"While disclosing that its 2014-built Noble Venturer seventh-generation Samsung 96K drillship is expected to complete its drilling campaign in Ghana with Tullow Oil in late May 2024 rather than in March 2025, as previously estimated, Noble revealed a batch of new assignments offshore Africa for the rig."
https://ocean-energyresources.com/2024/04/24/noble-venturer-lines-up-work-in-equatorial-guinea/
"The new contract dayrate has been revised slightly upwards to replace the legacy dayrate with Tullow Oil, which was recently in the mid to high $200,000s."
Don't be miserable
When oh when are we going to get some news about Kenya? Good or bad, just put us out of our misery. Not too bad waiting if we were getting a dividend.
It seem you are implying you can always time the market. What a wonderful talent!
If true, then why the need to prove it to us? Why the need to come in here and publicly brag and lecture us about how great you are? Instead of quitetly compounding your returns.
Could it be that you don't have a clue of where the market is heading and that you are trying to find suckers who will validate your short term shorts at their expense by trying to craft an aura of infalability? You lack any credibility.
I also bought back at 32p and dumped them at 37.5p, easy money....what's not to like :)
Jmax called the sell at 39p
He gets a dopamine hit by saying it repeatedly to himself
Truely a great. A walking amongst the peasants.
But does he know a good kipper.
No.
…Just report the waster, he will be gone on Monday.
OK JMAX, let’s have a gamble. If Tullows share price is higher than todays closing price on 31st May (no specific reason for date) then your the proven fool and agree to disappear from this board, never to return again… if the share price is lower, I will be the fool and agree to disappear and never comment again….
JMAX - You still adding nothing but abuse? Put on another record and say something constructive, negative or positive, but constructive and well thought, please stop the abuse.
Bluey.
That was before a global pandemic.
Who called the sell at 39p :)
You fools haven't got a clue :)
JMAX, you are such f...idiot.
Rahul owns already over 20 mln Tullow shares.
He will be a multimilioner in few years time, when the share price will be £1+.
Get your life back loser.
Get
Cap, take some comfort in the fact that around the time you were calling 70p, some muppets were predicting over 200p!
GLA LTH
JMAX
Posted in: TLW
Posts: 2,608
Price: 60.00
No Opinion
RE: More positive news19 Jan 2022 22:47
FDM,
I'm a LTH, and I am looking for 140p plus but haven't got an exit price for the reason you suggest - as in favourable circumstances 200p plus is viable.
Cap,
You are headless, what happened to your 70p plus predictions by Easter 2022 ?
The longs are being played like fools :)
According to Standard Charted:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Global-Oil-Demand-Will-Pick-Up-Strongly-In-May-And-June.html
Nice to see a few headless chickens running around here in the face of rising sp and short reductions.
RD knows more about this Co than anyone, so if it had the potential that the rampers think it has - why then is RD not buying ?
Just because someone is employed by a PLC company doesn’t mean they are obligated to purchase shares within that company… I have worked for a couple of PLC’s and bought shares in neither..
DB I have mentioned before about RDs lack of personal investment, and the possible exit of SB, but the rampers are too deluded to face reality.
HBR CEO is clearly very confident and hence has Major Skin in the Game while owning more than £25 Million worth of HBR shares and still adding, TLW CEO should undoubtedly do same IMHO!
“Harbour announces that Linda Z. Cook, Chief Executive Officer, has purchased 86,050 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at an average price of 285.5 pence per Ordinary Share.
As a result of this purchase, Linda Z. Cook has an interest in 8,603,532 Ordinary Shares, representing 1.117 % of the Company's issued share capital.”