Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hungary
Total doses given 9.42M
People fully vaccinated 4.11M
% fully vaccinated 42.1%
60k+ capacity crowd in their Euro match with Portugal!
I agree with Py's view of the situation.
BG played a game when offering KE as opposition to TLOU in the preferred bidder race.
It took away TLOU's ability to dictate whatever price TLOU wanted for their eventual power supplies.
TLOU retaliated to the BG being the only player in town , dictating the price they'd pay , by pointing out SAPP offered an alternative market place, and maybe individual SAPP members could possibly outbid the two main options?
IMHO, BG and TLOU desperately want to form a mutual partnership from funding to power provision.
And so do I - if there is a surplus one day then SAPP will enter the equation but I'm unsure if I'll see that day.
What I know , is that I would never invest in a company who planned to open any sort of mine in a distant country that they were going to administer remotely, with no plans to have a presence in that country! Employing an ex-minister from the host country to do everything domestically, would not be enough to sway me!
Until there is a possibility of unrestricted international travel, I think TLOU are currently that company!
I am thankful that we have not accepted a loan , say 2 years ago , which we are obliged to start repaying from our current state of having no income!
Until these figures improve I don't see anything happening. But TG has kept us afloat so far - no mean feat - and once Australia and Botswana get the vaccines all the gloom and doom will disappear!
Australia
Australia Total doses given 5.87M. - People fully vaccinated 695K - % fully vaccinated 2.7%
Botswana Total doses given 150K - People fully vaccinated ? - % fully vaccinated ?
compared to still locked down English position
England. Total doses given. 60.2M - People fully vaccinated 25.4M - % fully vaccinated 45.4%
Where in the world is Covid not delaying industry?
Mozambique
Mozambique. Total doses given 395K. - People fully vaccinated 74,801 - % fully vaccinated 0.2%
Yeah! Get your money into Mozambique and lose it all.
Hi py, the 70% was just hypothetical figure, my point is we don't know what premium we may have to pay the BPC as part of a 10MW award. Also there may well be a percentage included for the BG. It may be a condition of the PPA who knows.
All guess work from me I'm afraid.
I would think the ideal scenario for TLOU would be to sell direct to the SAPP but they need to be producing 5MW (plus other conditions) before they can apply to become a member.
The PPA is clearly more complex than what I believed IMO.
TB - no problem with disagreement (keeps the board worth reading!)
Can you expand on the 70% point? I thought that until we are producing some amount way over 10MW, we would be selling 100% of the power to the BPC. I may have missed something along the way but AFAIK the success of the company doesn't rely on selling via the SAPP, it was a 'nice to have' option, after supplying power to the BPC, our primary customer...
The original 100MW project was a proof of concept - and the concept will NOT be proved until power is injected into the grid. That is why TG was pushing on the transmission line - since it will take infinitely longer to connect that than it will be to buy equipment and generate 2MW of power.
The problem I have with the 2MW PPA - it is just a total distraction. What use is it if you cannot evacuate the power from site and connect it to the grid .....!!
Sometimes things really are that simple.
And the PPA is with BPC who are totally reliant on Govt for funding so I don’t see lenders giving Tlou funding unless there is some form of Govt payment support (as is supposed to be the case for the 100MW pilot).
Those here that think it is easy to raise funding for African projects - well think again. Yes, World Bank will come in and lead the way in totally impoverished parts of Africa. Botswana isn’t an impoverished state; far from it - it is supposedly the success story of Africa .... And with a history of loans repayment and also Low levels of external Govt borrowings.
But Bots Govt balance sheet has taken a real hammering in past few years, so Govt is going even more cautiously than it might have previously.
It is a huge land mass for a small population ie2.5 million or less. Diamonds were the primary source of Govt revenues. That took a huge hit but is now starting to come back. Minerals are getting a lot of attention now - copper, nickel, potash, some precious metals and of course coal ( the unwanted child). But all those projects take time to start generating revenue for Govt. So sadly we are likely to continue in this uber steady as she goes approach to life.
Meaning Tony and team will run out of cash soon enough .... and if there isn’t major progress on Tlou having line of sight to revenues, how the beejangos will they convince us idiots to support them in yet another keep the lights on fund raise ?!
Some fair points Py but with the greatest respect I do disagree.
We don't know enough about the 2MW PPA for one. Is the 2MW a portion of the 10MW.?
Hypothetically speaking, would 70% of the first 2MW produced go to the BG making it unviable for TLOU without the 10MW being agreed and in place..?
Do the BG want too big a piece of the pie..?
So many questions and so few answers.
One things for sure it isn't just a case of the BG getting a premium for say the first 5MW and off we go..!
The PPA must be more complex than that.
AIMVHO
Hi TB. For once in the Tlou story I'm not sure I hold the BG (BPC) responsible for this delay. We already have the 2MW PPA signed and sealed but, to date, TLOU have failed to deliver. If you were in the BG would you be rushing to offer us a bigger contract? I appreciate that Tlou want to get the 'right' backers on board, and if they can achieve that then great, but at what point should they consider the 2MW a proof of concept, get the $10m any way they can (Director's loan?), get connected to the grid and then go after further finance in a far stronger position?
Progress does feel 'tantalisingly close', just a due diligence report away perhaps, but I think that's what makes it more frustrating!
"Our governance aspires that more than 10 million Mozambicans will have access to electricity for the first time in their homes by 2024," Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi said at the launch of the project."
TLOU ASPIRED to producing gas several years back! They haven't conjured up 10MW yet , so good luck in Mozambique with their 450MW has zero chance of making 2024 target!
Anybody want to bet on them overtaking TLOU? Or give me odds on TLOU being overtaken by Mozambique?
I reckon Solar and Gas will be live long before Moz. and it will be a close thing on Hydrogen depending how well Solar goes.
I see Moagi is still posting in my direction - I am not there to recive you Moagi!
I only revealed your bag full of posts because Whizzer mentioned Moz. out of the blue, and the likely source was you green posts! Back on me head!
This whole fiasco is definitely down to the BG . And is certainly not a great advert for other foreign companies looking to invest in a country with such a lame and infective government.That doesn't seem to be able to make any type of meaningful decisions whaT SO EVER
I personally think the lack of speed is all down to the BG why on earth would TLOU not want to get moving with this project.
I still believe that the PPA unlocks the finance, some companies have indicated that they want an agreed PPA before committing and two parties are currently working through their internal approval processes and have not expressed a specific need to conclude the 10MW PPA in order to progress.
I'd suggest the terms would be more favourable if we were negotiating with a PPA in place and the preferred financier may well be one of the two partoes who want a PPA agreed, that's just my opinion of course.
The question to ask is why is the PPA taking so long..?
They might be on a reduced wage but what they are producing is nowhere near good enough, yes I’ve lost faith with the management, I’ve been here so long now it’s a bit of fomo if I’m honest, but I’ll still have my say If I’m not happy!!!
I’ve not had a rant for a while!
No but the longer it goes on, the longer they are getting money for nothing!
Whizzer, the Directors are currently working on reduced salaries for god's sake! Being cheesed off is one thing, but you've clearly lost all faith in this company and the country they operate in. I don't understand why do you continue to put yourself through this ongoing trauma? Why not sell, take a loss, invest elsewhere and try and get back your losses in a company that you have a bit more faith in? Or do you lack the conviction of your own investment decisions to make money elsewhere? I've been in and out of Tlou regularly over the last 2 years and tripled my holding without having to put any extra money in. Personally I see Tlou coming good, so whilst I may go in and out, I want to be holding when the finance package eventually arrives and the additional shares I've acquired should more than cover any dilution that may come with the finance package. You're not going to make any money by do nothing other than incessantly moaning.
Well actually Whizz, my point was more the Bots Govt are the problem here. And to be fair to TG and team, yes they are taking salary here but they are not ripping the ass out of what they pay themselves.
So Mozambique have given the green light and acquired the funding needed to progress that project! $1 billion!!!!
While our bunch of clowns can’t even get $10 million needed for our first phase!!
Something must have gone wrong here that we are not being told about, I think we have had a fall out with the government or the like and that is part of the reason this is a non starter!
Our lot are just laughing as they sit behind their desks twiddling their fingers counting the money we keep on paying them for doing jack sh@£
And all the while, Botswana Govt seem terrified to let the brakes off a pilot project to test the market for 100MW of power generation where Govt put all the risk on the Private Sector.
FFS, get on with it lads !!
Continued:
“Today, we are witnessing the exceptional beginning of a vision that aims to provide energy for all Mozambicans; this is a transformational project for the country,” the representative of the World Bank said during the launch. Mike Scholey, CEO of Globeleq, said in December: “The Temane initiative is an absolute regional game-changer. It will ensure a reliable and affordable power supply - crucial elements for economic and social development. It will provide electricity access to millions of people in the region."
Mozambique on Monday began construction of gas-to-power plant and transmission line projects worth $1 billion in the southern province of Inhambane as the government aims to boost energy supply. The World Bank is one of the financing partners of the infrastructure projects, alongside the US, Norway, African Development Bank, Islamic Bank and the OPEC Fund for international development according to statements from the World Bank and the US Embassy.
“Today we mark a milestone in the framework of this endeavour to illuminate Mozambique. Our governance aspires that more than 10-million Mozambicans will have access to electricity for the first time in their homes by 2024,” Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi said at the launch of the project. Upon completion, the gas to power Temane Thermal Power Plant will have a capacity of 450MW.