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Yeah..well MM has probably had to go through psychological surgery in order to get his head around the governance and expectations of being on the FTSE250....Let's hope his head is now ready for it :-)
Todays rise could be due to the fact the MM does not need to remove his special share status to enter the FTSE. As form Monday and as soon as the hire an independent chair they will be able to move into the FTSE 250. This could be why we see the shorts now slowly closing.
IF MM wants revenge on the shorter's, he needs to releases a mega update with news of a new Chair and dates of moving into the FTSE 250. The short sellers will have no choice but to close.
remember that game used to play as a kid. buckaroo i think it was. the one with the donkey. this share is just like that. the shorters will keep trying to push it down little by little. theres only so much stress the donkey can take.
well with 80m shares out shorted at end of November.....at some point ...it can actually become about them scrambling amongst themselves to cover some of that ....1-2-3 of them getting ahead of the crowd before some others decide to do the same thing
Lately they haven't had to do much thinking about what each other's game plan is
... that deciding could come as we head closer to an Update ..which now tests their nerve as to what the Update outcome will be and whether things have indeed been over sold...
Hopefully ...it can become about what they do next..rather than them watching what we do next
Charts meaningless when share price is being manipulate.......
Not sure what’s going on today. Decent rise considering no volume. Bounced off 1.86 upper bollinger band on the hourly. Looks like MM’s and Algo’s just playing games with price. Wake me up when we are back above £2
8/10EMA at 182/185 means nothing with this share. It’s crossed over on the daily and hourly many times only to be smashed back down the following day. If it starts to rise it needs to cross the 20EMA which is at 188. Then we should quickly hit 205. Last time it was above the 20EMA was 16th of September price was £6.50! £1.90 finish today bodes well for next week. Anything below will see buyers still on the sidelines.
185p
184p?
Yes, I'm not getting excited - what figure do you have on the 10EMA, by the way?
OxfordBull
sure...early days ..but with a possible Update due ..it will certainly be interesting to see how the day ends up from a shorter point of view ...as an expectation of that Update comes closer ...and now 1-2 shorters begin to wonder what to do next
Yes, this is the key Indy. The odd positive day makes no difference if we aren’t breaking any moving averages. If we can finish above the 10EMA that would be a start.
It’s still down for the week and has been for pretty much the last 12. I’ll get the fireworks out when we actually have a week that finishes higher and maybe the champagne when it finishes higher for the month!
Volume on Tuesday Nov 30th - 9.3m (PAM reduced short notified day after)
Volume on Thursday Dec 2nd - 8.1m
Up 4p from morning low to 180p - if the ALGO's don't push this down now, from that 180p ...then it is looking over and the climb back could well start next week
so.. are the ALGOs going to push it down again...or is one shorter now in fear of being caught out by another ???
This afternoon should be interesting picture of what the set up for next week is going to be IMO
Indy0105 / Mando_
Some good posts there, and agree with a lot of what is written.
One other factor to consider is that 'the market' (especially the old FTSE crew) don't understand the core business of Beauty / Nutrition. Their wives might have gone to Boots/Debenhams/The Body Shop to by lipstick and perfume, they won't consider men buying makeup and they prefer meat and two veg vs. a protein shake. THG are dominating this market in the new era of social shopping / ecom. That trend is growing and they are smashing it as far as I can tell.
THG unfortunately got hit on multiple fronts but also aided in their own share price destruction. SP was steady until H1 report that showed big cash outflow, followed by the short report and a disastrous CMD day. If things couldn’t get worse MM went on the rampage and then Q3 reports showed a slowdown in growth on Q2. The recurring revenue explanation for Ingenuity was still unclear. The UK press jumped on the bandwagon and confidence is at an all time low. What continuing is headlines that high street retail is fighting back and profit warnings from ASOS and BOOHOO have added to the negative mix. Some shady accounting from THG has also hit the street recently with an eye on adjusted cash items that really should really be part of capex and admin expenses. On the main market you can’t get away with stuff like this.
But all is not lost. Deep dive and although the high street is fighting back, beauty is still very much online now. More choice and still cheaper. My protein will maintain its online growth as again a specialised product that is predominantly bought online. On demand seams to be doing very well and a lot of money is being pumped into ingenuity to drive growth.
90 million shares on loan is a lot and the shares out there available are low so when this goes it could jump big. Firstly an early update highlighting significant Ingenuity client wins and sales that top 750mil will initiate the fire. Then in jan a further update with even better numbers and some colour on the ingenuity wins. Finally a chairman that the city loves should see this back up to £3. Also cash figure end of the year that’s greater than the 700mil held end of Q4 will finally kill the negativity surrounding this company. They should also make a statement regarding splitting of the company. I for one think beauty is worth around 2x earnings in the US. That pretty much the current market cap based on 2022 sales!
I’m MM and his team know this. Remember the city especially the US love recurring revenue. No value to the tech at the moment. But it’s definitely worth something. At 60mill recurring revenue it’s worth 1.2 billion.
We're currently a tiny tiny bit green as I type. I count 10 green days and 12 red days in the last month. This compares to 10 green days and 12 red days of the FTSE100. I'm not being facetious, but we need to put things in perspective.
Clearly over the last few months however, THG has been under a short attack because experienced investors knew a pre-IPO lockup period was ending and major investors would be selling off their shares after that period, so it was an opportunity for shorts to make a lot of money.
The problem is during lockdown many more new retail traders entered the markets due to lack of social activity and high liquidity in the system, and apps like etoro making it easy for people to start investing. This pumped up the markets like a pyramid scheme, especially in the US, and the markets are now capitalising on a higher number of inexperience retail investors.
It's very hard to know the top price of a share, but it's more nerve-racking and also hard to know the bottom price of a share when your invested.
Is the business sound? Is the business model good? Is revenue good? Are growth plans good? Is the culture good? Are institutions investing in the company? Personally I believe yes to all those questions with regard to THG.
I believe the shorts will stop pressing soon and then we will see nice steady growth.
Just my opinion. I could be wrong.
GLA
Try holding BOO?!
That ship sunk for me also - 250p average over there.
I don’t think I’ve ever been in a share that’s has so many consecutive red days , and that’s from my buying at £2.50.