The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Tracker funds typically hold between 5 and 15% of FTSE 250 companies according to my research.
Aren't you missing all the passive ftse all share trackers, small cap trackers sector trackers and the active funds also. Can't see hiw this will.all only add up.to 1% or 100m or just 15m Shares
It possible because fund managers get special dispensation for upcoming events , under certain limits of course, that allows them to take positions in anticipation of the actual event.
That prevents a surge of buying / selling that creates a false market as the changes happen.
Typically a company exiting the ftse 100 or 250 will see their share price fall as funds divest in anticipation and buy others that are joining, they try to do it slowly to avoid huge price swings.
Normal procedure.
How can it be possible that “and it could be happening now” when “funds that currently cannot take shares in THG”….eh
So perhaps we can start to think about Ftse 250 entry and possible ramifications if any..as THG has approximately 1.5 billion shares at todays price it has a M Cap of around 1 billion , that puts it at 160th place , the top 5 have market caps in excess of 4 billion, so a share price of over 3 pounds is entry onto the Ftse 100.
In the Ftse 250 i can find only a small number of funds that automatically take a position in Ftse companies and if there are only a few then 1 to 2 percent of the shares in THG will be taken without any other selection criteria. This is a smaller number than i envisaged so hopefully i have got that wrong and any help would be useful.
At some point ( and it could be happening now), funds that currently cannot take shares in THG will start to accumulate and perhaps that is showing in the relative strength in the SP, should the position change and THG does not enter the Ftse 250 the of course the opposite will happen and funds will start to sell of any shares they have accumulated.
I think that it is a very interesting couple of months coming up, will we see steady accumulation for any interested funds prior to the change or will they wait to see if THG will be included?
Will THG/MM care whether or not it gets included because it will be taken private ?
Or
Outside chance, once in the Ftse 250 will the next aim to be in the Ftse 100 looking at a share price in excess of 3 pounds ?
An interesting time ahead will MM like to be part of the organisation fighting for change or will he depart in the next few months.?
I remain invested and will be watching with great interest a hopefully i can make a decent wedge of cash over the next couple of years.
As always GL to all.
Well done team. I think everytime we see the tits ste2000, APH01 et al, we should keep morphing them
I like this upgraded Ste, much more pleasant.
Hes a gimp in mouldings cellar
When the Great Deluded One wants him to come in and make the tea and put out the biscuits. Apart from that, he's just the Great Deluded One's lap dog it seems? JMO
Glad to hear he’s well. Makes his radio silence on THG all the more disappointing though. Wonder how many days a month he works for THG.
My brother 2000 must have been turned off.
Looks like it's turning into FOMO Friday...
Correction, I haven't said the company is bad, it's the Great Deluded One that needs sacking. It won't matter, I have a feeling the big backers within the 65% club will soon be giving the Deluded One an ultimatum. Watch out for the Red dot...JMO Adyor!!!!
No, Hungarian...
Mate - about a month ago you were spamming the board about how bad the company is. Now it's worth £3?
Are you bipolar or something?
The only price I'm interested in is the 300p+ the 65% club will take. JMO Adyor.
SP movements are making little sense today. Then again, they never have made much sense....
The Big Middle Eastern backers within the 65% club are losing £millions every month, they could have earned vast amounts of cash if they had just bought Government Bonds or invested in US market trackers over the past 3 years instead of listening to the ramblings and false promises from the Great Deluded One. These guys will definitely want to start seeing a significant return on their capital very soon imo and The Great Deluded One will be having his feet held against a very hot fire before he knows it. The clock is definitely ticking down to something that should reward shareholders imo, the Great Deluded One is definitely becoming more isolated within the 65% club with his intransigent position you would assume. JMO Adyor!!!
@pencil: Is that good for THG?
BONDS
10-year Treasury yield dives below 4.5% as unemployment rate rises to 3.9%
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/03/us-treasury-yields-ahead-of-april-jobs-report.html
Agreed, anyone holding under the £1 mark is effectively in quite a safe position if not time sensitive.
Something has to give at some point. The SP impacts the businesses ability to borrow for capex and liquidity so they will NEED to do something about it.
Red or blue finish?
Personally I think it will be a friendly PE backed take private, taking out PI's with the II's rolling. Then use THG as platform to add some more Beauty/Nutrition brands, and pump some more volume through the Ingenuity platform. If they can do this, alongside some third party Ingenuity client wins, then THG becomes a very valuable group. The specialist Beauty market places are very valuable. What's the number that balances risk reward for PE so that they go alongside II's rather than wanting priority rights over nutrition/beauty as Apollo did (which killed the deal)? Probably in the £2's not the £3's. I believe this sort of deal is now doable as THG have stopped haemorrhaging cash, so any investor would be funding acquisitions not the day to day operation as would have been the case last year. Exit for PE would then be to break up the group once Ingenuity is at breakeven or dare I say it even profitable. JMO, feel free to critique
I suppose the question is will the next approach be 240p or higher? IPO 500p in September 2020, turnover has risen by circa 30% since the IPO in September 2020 and a £billion poured into Ingenuity and Brand promotion. I think the Middle Eastern backers within the 65% club would easily accept 300p today if offered by someone like Apollo? Kelso will keep pushing for something to happen and the Great Deluded One will have to yield his position at some point. JMO Adyor!
Agreed if you have got your average into a reasonable place and have time on your side, the upside Vs risk is definitely in our favour.