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If there is another bid,it may not be revealed until 5 August or the morning of 6 August.Not much to be gained by action before then.The likelihood of a counter bid is still VERY slim,if the prevailing SP is an indicator.Whatever,the world now knows TEF is up for grabs.
Yes-just feeding off Terrace that the outcome is unlikley to be less than 350p Either another bidder arrives and CBRE will be very comfortable in adding another 50 p or if voted out the company will be in play so 300p unlikely to be hovering for too long
sain, having declared their bid as "final", CBRE cannot increase it (this time round) unless a counter-bid comes in. They would have to wait until they are free under the takeover code to make a new offer (1 year?).
"where the statement concerned includes reference to the fact that the terms of the possible offer “will not be increased” or are “final” or uses a similar expression, the potential offeror will not be allowed subsequently to make an offer on better terms."
Should think CBRE would have another 50p per share waiting ,if required Since they hit on this before May TEF have cleared a whole raft of sales adding to the pot CBRE can skim on arrival
Well I suppose that without another bidder,would we prefer to accept 350p or to continue to be fractional owners with the risk of the SP falling back below 300p.
Terrace - if your question was aimed at me, my central case remains that the deal goes through with CBRE on the terms published. I sold around 1/3 of my TEF holding and reinvested the proceeds in Crest on that basis. But I think there are small but still meaningful alternative possibilities: on the upside that a counter-bid comes in and maybe even results in a bidding war/auction; and on the downside that shareholders reject the CBRE offer and because it was "final" CBRE has to walk (and the shareprice falls back).
A sale by Octopus could be a gamechanger. If it turns out that (the apparent sale yesterday) was just an internal transfer between Octopus legal entities then it will probably be of no significance. But if it was to a third party then things get interesting. There appear to have been balancing transactions at the same price yesterday (one of 80,000 shares and the other for the balance of Octopus' holding less the 80,000). If the bigger transaction was to a single company then we should see the dealing declaration by 3:30pm today. Is it a company wanting to promote (or even make) a competing offer, or is it a company wanting just to frustrate the CBRE offer?
So what is your best guess now as to what will happen between now and August 6?
many thanks IGW as usual your insight makes a lot of sense
ahh right, missed that that was from the 19th! Thanks
But have apparently traded the rest today.
Octopus having declared selling only 621 shares in the RNS from 1pm? am I reading that right?
Rapper - if you were going to facilitate a bid for the company by letting your 10% stake go, you would want more than a 1p premium to the existing bid price wouldn't you? I suppose it's possible they're putting it into some sort of Newco that will then bid, so that they will retain at least some of the ownership, but I don't see why they would potentially tip their hand that way.
So it could just be for tax or other reasons they want to get the stake into a different legal entity before the deal goes through.
Or it could perhaps be that they're selling to someone who doesn't want the bid to go through, but doesn't have a counterbidder lined up i.e. someone who wants to see the bid fail and Tef retain its independence and is going to vote the shares against the deal. In that scenario, you perhaps wouldn't expect Octopus to get the chunky premium that it would demand if it were going to facilitate a counterbid that it wouldn't then benefit from.
But all speculation, obviously.
Daily dealing disclosure to show that that is the Octopus number. 7,450,653 held as of Friday.
surely the most likely reason for x to pay a premium for 10% of the company is x preparing a better bid or knowing someone who is!! more power to there elbow says a stale bull like me
Your finger on the pulse share trades are very welcome.
Sweet dreams.
7,450,653 share trade gone through (and another one at the same price for 7.4m, presumably the other side). Octopus' last declared position was 7,456,274 shares as far as I can see.
So Octopus moving the holding internally, or have they sold? And if so, who's buying 10% of the company and why?
Maybe stretching hostile bidder status a bit but what about L&Q or Notting Hill stepping into the fray?
In 2017 L&Q bought Tony Gallagher's Land division for £505m
They are currently restructuring their construction arm Quadrant.Would make a logical fit
Maybe they are pining after Jerry !!
Thanks for the updates in an area I and other posters lack the experience you have.
I think the sp is seriously undervalued and the politics, although sounding dire right now, will surprise on the upside. Boris is for Boris and now he will be in the lead he will be in favour of stability rather than being a disrupt or on the sidelines. Stability is good for Boris. He gets to keep the job longer.
I am fully invested assuming this. Hope I’m right and he is not about to lead the charge of the light brigade on the world stage.
Hunt and may screwed up on seizing a tanker with which we had no legal grounds and no military means to enforce our will regardless of grounds.
And in terms of who bought the 1.4m sold by Bank of Montreal at £3.55, or the 1.0m they sold at £3.54 or the 0.5m at £3.53, perhaps they were just split between arbitrage players who each held below 1% after the purchase and so were not obliged to make a dealing declaration. Not the most exciting explanation for long-term shareholders, but difficult to see what else it might have been given the lack of dealing declaration covering such purchases.
Three more Monday's before the vote on 6th August. And the last one is just the day before, which feels like it might be leaving it a bit late. So if we're going to get a counter-offer feels to me like tomorrow or a week tomorrow might be the most likely days.
On the declarations, interesting to see the declarations of Tavira Securities, Samson Rock Capital and Sand Grove Capital Management. Sand Grove took a 1m share (via CFD) long position at 350p, Samson Rock 600k shares (also via CFD) at 350p and Tavira 185k shares (CFD) at around 350p. So we now have around 6% of the shares held between Cigogne, Tavira, Sand Grove and Samson Rock. These companies look to me as though they are buying for the arbitrage, reckoning that 350p is too low for the risked fair value, given the possibility of counter-bid. That doesn't mean they would vote against the CBRE offer though if it is the only one on the table on 6th August.
https://twitter.com/PoplarHARCA/status/1152968227233964032
Yet another string to TEF's bow
https://resiconf.com/resiconvention2019/en/page/2019-speakers
Steffy one of the key speakers at Celtic Manor in Sept as a leading light in BTR I wonder if he will be wearing a CBRE hat then?
If =in
Tight=right
booze =ooze