Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
5 vape shops in my area now tells me there is definitely a trend for it, look at younger generation most are vaping now and not smoking .Ethically it’s not right but that’s the way it’s going hence that’s the main reason I bought into this company .
The margins on the liquids are pretty big .
Plus what with the current financial climate will people just give up smoking, I think a lot will turn to vaping to save the £
Yes BAT sell world wide .. most of the growth probably USA also when your comparing
Prices the products are different BAT looks to offer a closed
System 2x2ml for £6.99. 88vape 10ml for £1 bottle
Interestingly it turns out Liberty Flights sells beyond the UK. These distributors cover Japan, Oz and NZ:
https://www.thrvape.co.nz/
https://liberty-flights.shop/
Comparing BAT's product to SUP's product it does appear to me that SUP is 7x cheaper for the same thing: (£6.99 vs £1):
https://www.vuse.com/gb/en/e-liquids/pods/vuse-epod-chilled-mint-nic-salts-e-liquid-pods
https://www.88vape.com/collections/16mg-e-liquid
Has anyone else seen this?
https://www.ii.co.uk/secure/my-news-feed/analysis-commentary/ii-view-vaping-boom-pushes-bats-smoke-free-customers-above-20-million-ii524802
>>>Revenue for alternatives, or what it calls New Categories, rose 45% to £1.28 billion, with customers for its non-combustible products up 2.1 million to 20.4 million. New category brands include Vuse, Vype, Glo and Velo.
Is 88Vape genuinely a fraction of the price of Vuse, Vype, Glo and Velo? If BAT are achieving 45% growth for their non-combustibles then surely SUP is also doing at least that? (Or better??? As we're cheaper?). I'm not a vaper, so it'd be great to get some insight from someone who's a vaping conoisseur!
NB: BAT sells internationally not just to the UK, so a good proportion of these 20.4m people using BAT's products aren't going to be SUP's target market.
I agree ROCKET..... I have made my first purchase.... I have some powder for another buy if it goes lower.... usually takes 3 days before this type of slide stabilises,,, fundamentally nothing wrong with this one... it makes a profit and growth is a key priority.... it will turn and I hope stabilise at £1 .... after that... who knows.....B
First punt in this one after some research on the Co. Seen a lot worse results on retail Co`s and the sell off seems harsh & overdone for a defensive Co. Looks like panic has got the sellers in stampede mode which gives a good price to enter for me.
People won't stop selling this share it seems.
Well, I'm buying. My 3rd purchase, this morning, 72.1p paid.
I've now reached my limit for this kind of share.
I like the management team, they are entrepreneurial and, as I see it, the divi reduction is to provide ammo for them to make well-priced acquisitions of distressed consumer companies.
Happy to mount the saddle and enjoy this ride!
If you smoke 20 a day, switching to vape will save you in the region of £4k a year. As the cost of living bites further, I'm guessing more people will be switching. Not a smoker myself, but I would switch if I did. Oh & also the improvements in health of vape over smoke is another consideration.
TDinvestor, some of the things that enticed me:
- 6%+ divi
- healthy cash position
- revenue exceeds market cap
- revenue grew whilst SP reduced 50%+ over past year
- PE ration 9:1
- EV to EBITDA 6.41
- Company track record and comms
- Analyst forecast 207p
The risk-reward looks good here in what has been and currently still is a terrible market for small caps
I’m looking into adding here - would u guys b willing to share the metrics/basis u r using for saying this is too cheap, please?
Thanks
And getting cheaper Agricore...
I've bought in today - looks too cheap not to.
The business looks in great shape to ride out the recession and inflation.
I don't know if the SP will go lower, but the fundamentals will not allow it to stay this low in the medium term.
I feel a lot happier on the back of the investor presentation. The "whoops" moment is the fact that LEDs have steadily replaced incandescent sales since 2018 and these have a 20X life and a 5X price - therefore the market size - due to technological improvement - has dropped by 75%. SUP's channel customers have merrily continued ordering the same volumes for years but suddenly found they are overstocked. This is described as an industry wide phenomenon - e.g. the lighting association reporting the same.
The lighting forecast sales per Equity Development were confirmed and actually indicate a *SIGNIFICANT* uptick in sales (taking into account the above 75% drop) and sales are forecast to *INCREASE* FY2024 (compared to historic run rate) on the basis of x20 life and x5 cost compared to prior incandescent sales..... however the revenue drops accordingly.
I can immediately think of some puns around why didn't someone remember to turn off the forecast - but hey - it's not like this is a loss of masses of customers or anything other than a step change in technology.
I sorely wish that I had funds to top up today and am contemplating cutting some of my other horses as 81p is incredibly cheap and tempting....
Thinking of jumping in… not sure where the floor is.. thought it was 85p…. Seems it might be in the 70s…. Quite brutal markets at the mo…. Wait for tomorrow me thinks might be best… but deffo value down here…B
Unhooked - It's actually a slightly higher dividend announced today of 2.2p vs 2.1p forecast for 2022.
However I take the point that the forecast 2023 and 2024 dividend is now lower. 4.7p and 2.6p vs 7.3p and 8p.
Based on a reduced EPS of 13.3p to 9.3p in 2023 and 14.6p to 11.7p in 2024 the forecast drop in dividend in 2024 seems overdone.
I'd echo the point made about today's drop being a large overreaction, and that at 90p we are talking about a business on a (reduced) forecast 2023 PE sub 10 that drops to a PE of 8 in 2024.... and that managed to grow its Wellness segment by 132% in the past year and forecasts 30% growth in its most profitable segment in the coming year.
Yes, we did see a divi announcement - a reduction, lol!
I've topped up. The drop is overdone and this will be seen to be a bargain price over the medium term.
I never bought this share for the divi anyway.
even cheaper now!
2021 Accounts out at 7am. Perhaps we'll see a dividend announcement too.
Wassssss-sup? My fellow supremes!
Been reading about the acquisition and how this is a smart move for supreme.
So here we go. A chart that summarises perfectly why buying a closed system provider is smart:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44295336
60% of the market is closed and growing.
Another clever move by our BoD
moving out of oversold and anticipate buyers to come in as we start the long move up, just look at the chart, technicals looks great
technical stochastic, momentum, rsi etc now in favour of longs - compnay doing well and should rerate from this level
Looks bottom's in as buyers are back
You've hit the nail on the head Agricore. The vaping market alone is growing massively. I myself have been using 88vape products over the last few years. The liquids are cheap and less harsh than the more overpriced competition. They also have varying solution strengths and flavours so you can phase slowly down. Not only that, they're compatible with the majority of free liquid loading vaping pens.
As you've outlined the health/wellness/fitness improvement sector is another growing area of business. The truth of the matter is that Supreme has targeted growing and profitable sectors and furthermore looking to broaden its portfolio within the same theme.
It's what I like about the BoD, they've stuck their money in the business with management owning over 50% of the company in shares and Institutional Investors also taking a slice of what's left. They've also looked inflation in the eye and forward bought products to cater for problems ahead! Jeez if that isn't forward business thinking, I don't know what is!
At current MC and consequently share price... This is a steal!
Foreward and forecast yield 2023 is now 5.8% and 2024 is 6.4%.
The question is do you agree with the narrative that people will "trade down" on vitamins and vapes? For me personally, I've thought for a long while and Ripoff and Barrett was ripe for disruption. Pay triple and get one for a penny - no thanks. H&B is owned by a Russian Oligarch too..... So Sealions is a very logical play - as well as the Millions and Millions in store brands too. Vaping I don't vape and never have but the trading down argument makes perfect sense to me there. As for the other stuff well batteries and lighting are pretty defensive/inelastic. Health drinks aren't exactly going out of fashion either. So I look at the track record (a great one), the brands (strong in my view), the "Moat" - the "it's not fair" customer relationships and synergies of cross selling. Management team - strong in my view. It seems this is a great port to shelter from the storm.
There's lots of institutions invested here so I guess these large sales driving the price down are one of those repositioning? More fool them I say. Fill yer boots coz it's Supremely cheap.
GLA