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Can buy more cheaper than 278
Newkotb
It still anazes me that the largest holder together with institutions apear to like this deal. Once again why. If i was cynical they are looking at this as a tax write off themselves now, Also the dividend yield now must be in danger. Can you see them paying dividends yielding ten per cent. I cant. So i reel terms dividend payments will be cut to align with the share price that has now been created .
"Bad management that took this company from 26p to £4.."
And should of done a deal with Kistos ate 426p .... instead they decided to give 40% of OUR company away and buy £277m debt then give £61m away as a golden thank you to the founders of Tailwind too.
As for going from 26p to £4 that was purely on ACW's connection with BP and Serica being in the right space for BP to off-load Rhum and at the time, all its negativity surrounding Iran. So as you see Serica have not done any deals on their 'own merit', since ~2009 afaic.
At this rate Mitch will be forever known as Grand Old Duke of York.
aimo & dyor
How low can she go!
Bad management that took this company from 26p to £4
Company is going bankrupt lol
This is going to keep going down I reckon. See this as an opportunity!
NS,
"Please can you list those other investment opportunities.. I ask out of ignorance rather than judgment"
It's clear you know the answer to that, if as you say, been here over a decade. On numerous occasions Mitch et al have stated they have looked at many, many deals and REJECTED them on the basis of not offering value, ie quoted as 'will not overpay' .... One has to ask, what the 'ell were these deals if it makes Tailwind look good !!
I could list (no doubt you could too) NS's deal after deal that have gone down over the past few years that would have been significantly better than this pile of steaming do do, that's without looking overseas ffs !! Pure Mgt failure to deploy capital is why we are in this mess.
I appreciate you need to talk this deal up for the sake of your clients portfolio's and you clients relationships but come on ... really, if you had no working interest in Serica would you view this deal in the same light, of course not.
aimo & dyor
Added more...let's see if you can get it to 230
Should have added the link
https://labourlist.org/2022/11/closing-loopholes-in-windfall-tax-would-raise-17bn-labour-research-reveals/
Labour is trying to get these changes in now but since they have so heavily committed to doing this it is certain if they don't get the conservatives to do this now they will when elected. The conservatives now always do what labour want like the WFT, energy price cap, increase in out of work benefits with inflation etc just takes a little longer than if they were in power.
These guys look interesting with the right deal:
https://newmedenergy.com/
Capricorn were trying to do something with them. Diverse portfolio and reserves.
Infor
"his deal is over reliant on the questionable tax relief"
Not sure this questionable anymore it will be worthless, from Labour List
"Closing “loopholes” in windfall tax would raise £17bn, Labour research reveals"
Also from Sky News
"Labour pledge to 'extend' windfall tax to protect families from soaring energy bills"
Infor - Please can you list those other investment opportunities and the price at which they were on offer plus their value accretion. I ask out of ignorance rather than judgment.
Everyone not happy sell out ..let new buyers buy it below 250
Sentiment is that low now, it could actually be a good contrarian buy signal
The market has spoken. The only hope for this SP is for a 'NO' vote and the BOD to go.
Big pivot around 250p to my eye.
Any one who allows their Market cap drop by £300m or 40% during the best trading year on record has to go. There are so many other investment opportunities that involve lower taxes, diversity and transition that the BOD should have considered, let alone the Kistos fiasco.
Completely agree Terry, Tailwind stakeholders have siphoned off over $100m, that's just in 2021 and god knows what sits in their subsidiary companies today. They have left the massive debt in place and basically doing a runner. This deal is over reliant on the questionable tax relief, dwindling NS assets and stinks of BOD self interest when you consider what the Kistos proposal offered. It completely ignores shareholder return and sinks our cash into paying debt, royalties and decommissioning and we don't even know what the the current Tailwind hedging arrangements are with Mercuria.
OK there's my rant again.
Strong closing statement TerryM, and I hear where you’re coming from. Cannot judge the KIST ‘proposal’ of 6 months ago through today’s lens and market conditions. Most were spitting fire over it and some now lamenting its termination. Funny old world.
If you sell/have sold, wish you all the best. My own view is that value will come through here in time.
Well I'm buying more at this price
NormaSits
"Indeed. However, I don’t recall a bunch of support for the offer when it was on the table so little point in looking back at it with wistful eyes. There is a chance (great or small, absolutely none of us know) that 3 years from now we end up in a good place."
First this was never put to the shareholders as the BOD did not want to risk losing there lovely remuneration packages, they went off and a came up with a deal to scupper any takeovers except by Mercuria who will get SQZ at a knock down price and no doubt some sort of good deal for the BOD. Also because nobody in their right mind could have imagined the SQZ BOD would do anything so against the PI and also there was trust in the BOD to return some excess cash to shareholders which they have reneged on.
The share price is almost at the cash element of the offer and there are very few people now who would not prefer to take this cash and have a share in Kistos run but a much better team than SQZ who sat on the cash for years and now want to throw it away with the control of the company.
Our only hope to recover losses is if there is a no vote and this BOD are removed, they are either self-serving or incompetent. The low share price is a direct result of their actions and the shares will never recover while they are in place.
Totally get you Dennis. I too hope it’s < 3 years….and have already held this for > 10. I guess that puts us in very different positions as the divis I have received have already covered my purchase price.
Somehow I am confident you will make a decent return, but I think it will take a while to work out as this business evolves. The (unpublished) plan to leverage the benefits of the combined entity move this thing to a new phase. Execution risk will be higher, but so will the rewards if successful. That is very reminiscent of the SQZ share I bought 10 years ago. An earlier (also unpublished) plan was also forming back then and, well, that turned out ok and multiplied my value 10x, as of today.
See you around.
I’m with you Norma but I hope it’s less than 3 years.
I’ve stuck with Serica (and invested more) as the share price has dropped since I felt the business was hugely undervalued, especially with all the cash in the bank.
With this deal, I’m not so sure. I still think we’re overpaying, especially with the dilution, but I’m not exiting at this point and crystallising a loss which would be significant for me.
I believe Serica’s management and BoD have integrity and generally possess sound judgement, but I hope they haven’t grasped at this deal out of desperation. I hope Mercuria aren’t as evil as they’ve been painted here by some posters.
Nice JANUARY TRADING STATEMENT & OPERATIONAL UPDATE from Tullow, where's ours?