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The resources will increase with each drill but based on just 2 drills NT1 & NT2 equals approx $30m each year to Solo over 20 years. Obviously staged payments based on increased demand. This is an optimistic outlook and 2C resources not proven, but the reality could exceed these numbers, especially with adjacent countries knocking on the door for natural gas plus the additional planned future wells.
$20m is the "at cost" value attributed to SOLOs 25% ie the Zubairs are paying that but theyd only do that if they saw significant upside from this investment... they arent a charity
Ignoring the 2TCF GIIP for a moment the 763 BCF 2C recoverable has a retail value at current GSA prices of $2.5 billion. I expect a 5% reduction in this number with the new PSA with the 5% going to the Gov.
It reached around £50 million back then on the NT-2 drill and everyone expected NT-3 (now C-1) to be back to back so drilled directly after.
Post farmout the asset is worth more than the $20 million imo because it has financial backing from the Zubiars all the way to production (approx. $105 million) C-1 is likely to add significantly to that value.
Maybe it will be worth more than that when the deals come thru, time will tell ( aex up again.
Come out of the fog trrime. This is exactly what I'm talking about.
Aex offer was a benchmark. It was the only offer taken to shareholders. It was accepted.
Solos sp is where it is. A wider reflection of the true market value of the deal. Ever think why the mcap dropped from £110m? Simple answer is, it's not worth that.
I am wondering which we will see first now?
On the one hand there seems to be a building expectation for the licence in October, the AEX BB seem more convinced on this this than the solo bb. On the other hand the SOLO BOD said a typical deal will take 6 months and 6 months was up on Monday. Add the Helium-1 IPO and we could get all 3 buses come in the last quarter.
When is HeliumOne due to IPO?
I seem recall a mc of about 40 million when reef was the only asset.
With licence in place drill completed helium drilling and deals in the pipeline.
Anyone's guess what mc will be.
SOLO Mcap reached £50-70mln from memory on back of NT2 success/gas flows didnt it?
At £11m Cap none of Ruvuma is currently priced... so when the licence does land its game on here.
Book looking good
Base value pre farmout is $20 million (£16 million) how much more is it worth post farmout + the C-1 drill?
Current cap = £11 million.
Unfinished business? I think there is a que,
Joe, yes why would you? Or depumpers for that matter.
I have unfinished business with this company!
Very encouraged by AEX's update today, it really sounds like the Ruvuma licence approval is close now.
I see a very instant east 200% upside from this level as soon as its granted.
Fully funded CH1 drill with 25% interest, I really hope they don't farm out until after it! Mcap here will be £40-50m by spud with ease given size of the prize / COS if they opt to hold the full 25% and farm out after CH1
GLA
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/903377/solo-oil-hails--positive-movements--in-tanzania-resources-sector-903377.html
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https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/903371/aminex-a-potted-history-903371.html
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https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/903344/flash-blog-hurricane-rockrose-aminex-solo-serica-903344.html
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https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/903316/aminex-and-ara-to-move-ahead-with-pre-drilling-work-at-chikumbi-1-well-in-tanzania-903316.html
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soz,if already posted
There is a bench mark there for the AEX farmout. Add on a few percent if you want a fuzzy feeling.
Why would you listen to any waffle about values from pumpers on here?
I remember your rough calculations of our share about $400 million I hope that still stands and if anything is a large underestimate. At the end of the day it’s how much gas is appraised and what percentage can be extracted. I didn’t even mention cove as it was years ago and as far as I am aware no gas has been produced from the assets they sold for a fortune.
Does make me wonder if nr still holds his shares.
He lost us a fortune with reef and pan over, however he is responsible for our investments in Tanzanier with aminex and helium one so I suppose we have something that should eventually generate a good return for shareholders. IMO he still has most or all of them. Why would he sell at a loss. I certainly won’t.
To be honest the drill cannot commence quick enough for me.
So within a few months solos share could be in excess of 500 bcf and an oil find as a bonus.
With helium one hopefully not too far from drilling and new deal or deals our sp should be many multiples of what it is now. Still hoping for that elusive maiden dividend.
The drill has two parts to it or two horizons Steve, it a multi layer drill.
1.0 An appraisal of the so far discovered and appraised 763 Billion Cubic Feet 2C - will they increase this number from this layer? I expect so myself.
2.0 An Exploration of the deeper and previously undrilled Jurassic - Target size given is 1 TCF although I believe the search for the oil west and up-dip should also be considered as the target as per Mike Rego & the oil in the cuttings at NT-1 & 2
The published Aminex cost was $15 million although it depends on what terms the Zubairs agree over the rig, including the duration and number of wells the Zubairs would like to drill back to back.
Solo Bod say fully funded so I assume it has been discussed?
Around $10 - 12 million in total I believe. So approximately £2 million for Solo
Anyone any idea how much the initial drill will cost a few million I would think.
I assume this is an appraisal well. So we could be looking at higher amount of gas in place.
I’ll take 25% of 6 tcf anytime.
Also news of acquisition anytime soon!
reinforces the Bullish AEX RNS.
"This is clearly a positive update for Solo and its Ruvuma JV Partners and moves us a step closer to realising the core value of our material interest in this high quality asset. The positive movements in Tanzania referenced by Aminex and ARA enhance our confidence that the development licence extension will be forthcoming, enabling the JV Partners to recommence operational activity on the licence in the form of the much anticipated Chikumbi-1 well for which we are fully funded. We look forward to further updates from our partners in due course."