Listen to our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode 'Uncovering opportunities with investment trusts' with The AIC's Richard Stone here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
If there are any budding geo's here there is a Steve Garwin video with respect to porphry systems, mentions Alpala as a "TRUELY GIGANTIC" discovery at about 10minutes (this is a newish video)
Not sure if the Cascabel concession is mentioned again after 10mins, i gave up
Means diddly squat to me, but as nothing is going on in the public domain wrt Solgold this will bore you to sleep
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ew2UAoPeqm0&ab_channel=geohug
Thanks for that mog999. It would have been better if he did the presentation in English rather than Latin. Maybe there's a translate button?
Has anybody noticed the amount of takeovers in the copper explosion,mining industry recently ,they running out of theses rare finds to take over ATM
It's always good to be reminded and reassured.
For those who are feeling downbeat about our prospects, the 30 second clip where he talks about Alpala is really worth listening to. It may well help dispel any feelings you may have about no one being interested. It's too big to be ignored.
Addicknt yes agree there
All for 18p!!!!,
"The current price of copper as of March 28, 2023 is $4.07 per pound."
So all of the copper, gold and silver in the ground is worth $150 billion?
How many would pay over $3billion to own that lot and the other tenements and the inherited Cornerstone assets?
With a negative view Pad, that would be pushing $0.09 cents in the ground value, where as the likes of Warren Irvin and Malcolm Norris are quoted as saying between $0.04c and $0.06c in the ground values, the big unknown is all the other concessions and the addition of Cornerstones licenses/JV, maybe it could push the value up, who knows
One of the solgold presentations, it might have been the PRE PDAC one, the presentation gives a a total metal inventory of 14 MT CU, which combines Cascabel (Apala, TA) and Porvenir
Which gives a value of between $1.4BN -> $2.1BN
Previous post from me gives that a value of between 39p -> 58p per share
The 21% of resources relates to the economic story or PFS that is better suited to SOLG than a super major. The Capex and IRR of importance a minnow doing pre finance talks etc for a project like this takeover the broader metrics.
In reality, a super major like Rio or Anglo or BHP would rip that PFS up and start with something like $5bln Capex tap into 30% to 40% resources delivering a values that dwarf SOLG's projected numbers. Throw in rising copper prices and the quality of metal basket mix at Alpala (and don't forget open pit Tandy), and I reckon you are talking around 200p a share on comparable basis to the 50p mid point in your 14MT CU.
Block cave mines are all about scale. Scale up Capex by near double and the profits really begin to surge and the payback period is not far of the same.
The super majors have the cash and access to debt that allows them to take advantage of 'scale'.
SOLG's numbers are the lowest we can do on Capex vs gaining the funding remit or minimum IRR of 21% or above.
Trouble is... IRR is always done at 'spot prices' which is ironic when dealing with copper which is on track for a huge deficit in 2 or 3 years time yet the market is too occupied playing with copper prices as an old hedge or barometer for equity markets bull vs bear strategies. It's an outdated tool now and needs to be binned. Then copper can really get a move on.
Might,yes agree with valuation top end 58p
Mogg,typo apols
Actually i think the total inventory is 17.6 MT CU, but my valuation between 39p -> 58p per share still stands, just my text comment in my spreadsheet says 14MT, but the calcs are done @ 17.6 MT CU
The Pre-PDAC presentation has been removed
Sorry for any confusion, i hope Forts value would come true
I think the value I stated will almost certainly come true but not for us shareholders unfortunately... we'll get our payday but the buyer will take the Lions share and rightfully so as they will be taking on the development risks and regional/political risks too. At end of the day... mining is always about funding and whether you can or can't fund it. Minnows don't usually end up with 100% stakes in Tier 1 discoveries. Usually by the time it's proven up so a buyer wants it, the minnow has dealt away 70%+ in process of funding just the exploration!
So for SOLG to be in a position of having 100% ENSA stake in Tier1 asset really is very rare. Yes we've had dilution along the way and a few royalties in there too but it's time now to see the fruits of holding onto that 100% stake. Super majors absolutely love 100% interest assets. They don't like fragmented to multi partner deals as the partners involved can often be the biggest drag on the development.
But ENSA is certainly worth multiples of in ground prices. The metal mix is off the charts. It's one of a kind.
Just to intervene, I expect the metal mix is off the charts because Cascabel could become “the largest underground silver mine, third-largest gold and sixth-largest copper in the world”.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecuador-mining-idUSKCN1TE047
Hey DinnerMoney,
No expert on this but probably the three main metals’ prices over time don’t move exactly the same therefore the mix allows for hedging against the different peaks and troughs?
https://twitter.com/CopperBullish/status/1639128211639664640/photo/1