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Just to add some more meat on the bones to provide insight to my calcs. I don't think this represents a classical normal option distribution . It appears flatter and covers a huge range of value outcomes each impacted by an array of different factors and hence why the market cap has historically been quite risk averse and also why no early acquisitions or deals to date and also why so much pessimism/optimism related volatility as shown by the wonderful graph ?? of SP history. The lower case positive outcomes are impacted by possible strong cheaper pill and other advanced vaccines style competition coming on stream, the global government pricing debate/control to put pressure on the price for SNG's treatment impacting profitability and if the BOD approve a less optimal exit transaction and also our delivery device issues. The upper end is very broad and encompasses a better management of shareholder value by RM and his team, especially dealing with the line extensions into the other respiratory viral indications and asthma and COPD. The tail of the option is very long and will provide some very low probability options of a very large diamond like returns not just a pot of gold. Good luck all. My expectation is the SP will trend north as a wider non technical audience works out that this has a 1010% better risk reward characteristics to the national lottery. Smart professional investor money is over weight now with Polygon with all the big Pharma/Bio circling with great interest. I think Polygon have a similar option model running on this stock and that's why they have put so much cash on the line.
This is a fantastic real option on display with illustrated probabilities something like this:
15% very worst case = nil value ( I think its less than 10% personally)
Then the upside :
5% chance money back
10% 250p
10% 400p
10% 600p
10% 800p
10% 1200p
10% 1500p
10% 2500p
5% 5000p
5% 7500p
So looks pretty good doesn't she!
Thanks guys, very interesting and of course, exciting!
Raphaking
I would draw the top line of the triangle from the high on 15/2/ 2021 and join the the next high at 15/6/2021
You will then see that today is a breakout from this top trend line.
This triangle corresponds to an Elliot Wave triangle formation, forecasting a breakout from the last low.4/10/2021
Lots of possible targets with Fibonacci confluence. With good to excellent P3 results and/or preorders, I expect to successive higher highs, like a step ladder formation
#sng daily closing chart shows perfect backtest in early October of the broken downtrend of the triangle. That upper parallel, which is now the target, looks to be around 500p, doesn't it? https://t.co/VQCU8906sa
It is a nice graph.
For those that missed the chart. It really is a thing of beauty even for the chart agnostics!
Get yer chops around this!!!!
Look at the 5 year... ignore the last couple of weeks...
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SNG:LON?window=5Y
I said at 145p ish you take a line from the base of each trough and that joins with the corresponding top line forming a ‘flag’. If you ignore the last spike up you will see the flag.
Then if you note each trough is shallower than the previous one it indicates an imminent breakout to the recent ATH!
So then take that trough dot to dot right up to the ATH!!!
So now we have had a distinctive breakout which validates the above narrative and equals buying momentum!!!
I know the SP is news driven etc but I am predicting 250p soon!
I am sticking with my bet that I made before the A2 RNS!
For those that are chart agnostics, I get it. As far as I am concerned it’s just more valid data into the mix.
However, what is one of the first things you do when buying a stock?????????
You look at the chart!!!!!!!
And interestingly......
145p ....... to ........195p ......... is 50/145 a 34.4% rise!
195p.........to .........250p ......... is 55/195 s 28.2% rise!
So we have a significantly shorter journey to 250p now with the hard yards being already achieved!
But that is all small fry compared to a £20 min imo!
Enjoy the ride!
Usual caveats
Trek