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@EthicalSkeptic
50 mutation genetic difference dictates 10.3 total years of genetic distance (by well-vetted rates of mutation) from Omicron to Alpha. Apportioned by mutations/arrival time, this places LCA of Alpha-Omicron in April of 2016.
@EthicalSkeptic
Replying to @snackalittle and @DrKellyVictory
Omicron has old genetics. Older than Wuhan Dec 2019... so, we have a problem.
@drakchaurasia
means B.1.1.529 was in existence in bat before 2019 in some bat?
now, same evolved from base coV2 by selective mutations?
@BidoliNicola
Replying to @drakchaurasia @EthicalSkeptic and 2 others
Yes, correct; or rather its "involuted" (incomplete) sequence which, through some portions of the sequence belonging to the Delta variant, suddenly reappeared (re-emerged in complete form).
@drakchaurasia
and, possessing phenotypes, nearby delta?
is there any mean to assess it's virulence from genomic study? comparing it with alfa or kappa?
@EthicalSkeptic
Replying to @drakchaurasia @BidoliNicola and 2 others
Not in a bat - in humans in 2018/19.
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1466902747773607946
?????????????? ???????? = January 2018
@EthicalSkeptic
Dec 5
OK, through examining the latest Omicron sequence sample QLD-2568 from 2 Dec 2021, & using a well vetted rate of sustained mutation - parsing this genetic distance into the lineages of Alpha and Omicron - I get a divergence (Last Common Ancestor) date of
?????????????? ????????
@ClownBasket
Replying to @EthicalSkeptic
But hosts are needed to get from the common ancestor LCA to Alpha & Omicron. Does this mean that there was no “leak” in Dec 19 but just an announcement of a leak? That both alpha & omicron were already in the population since 2018?
@EthicalSkeptic
Replying to @ClownBasket
Co-rekt
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1467365370394722304
Poorly phrased.
This might be better
The link in Xviolet’s post seems to say that that the rise in Covid hospital cases is largely because a higher proportion of those admitted to hospital for other reasons turn out to have Covid.
Xviolet's post looks like it says hospital admissions with Covid are going up, but that's just because a higher proportion of people who are admitted for other reasons turn out to have covid
"SARS-CoV-2 has been an incidental finding in patients that were admitted to the hospital for another medical, surgical or obstetric reason."
This shins. You may be concerned and if genuine then don’t be but I suspect you are trying to stir the pot. If you had any understanding of what is being said about the lack of breathless patients then you would not batter an eyelid. Covid doesn’t hospitalise you for a bunch of random medical ailments and those diagnosed by default when admitted for another reason have no bearing on the future need for respiratory treatments for covid. Remember for most people covid is a relatively mild illness and asymptomatic cases occur. Nothing has changed here. We are not looking to treat the asymptomatic
ThinShins
re breathless
I'm not worried about that. Whatever the nature of this variant - at this stage - its clear that Covid is an ongoing nightmare. The biology keeps changing which it makes it hard to say exactly where different drugs and vaccines fit into the picture - the picture keeps changing - the answer (for me) is hold yer shares, sit back and wait. But I'm not mega over-extended, so I don't lose sleep. Good luck with your strategy!
With new variants the need for testing is going to increase dramatically around the world. The emergence of the Omicron variant shows that the world is “closer to the start of the pandemic than the end”, commented by Sir Jeremy Farrar https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/04/uks-progress-on-covid-now-squandered-warns-top-scientist
thsnks for this XV, I understand this is still very early days but the quote below is slightly concerning for us seeing as we are trialling our treatment solely on breathless patients.
"The main observation that we have made over the last two weeks is that the majority of patients in the COVID wards have not been oxygen dependent. SARS-CoV-2 has been an incidental finding in patients that were admitted to the hospital for another medical, surgical or obstetric reason."
I doubt we will see a true picture until we get more data from the European countries.
The difference in population age and vaccine uptake as well as simple things like the weather.
Good to see the stats and data XV thanks
This is the first data from SA:
https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features
This analysis seems to imply there were some fatalities - but I don't know if that is correct.
https://twitter.com/miamalan