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Funny thing is, I did a quick calculation based on the cost of Remdesivir being around $4000 if Synairgen costs £3000 per treatment, and based on RM comment about 2,000,000 treatments potentially being made available this year, if they took a previously mentioned licence fee of 17% it would equate to £1.02 billion.
Divided by number of shares issued works out at around £6.40 per share
I'd be happy with that...
Sharesting - lots of nonsense spoke on here. We all know that. Most of it is in frustration at the unresponsive sp.
I also remember you saying you d filtered me. I knew you hadnt. You little fibber. Lol
Hi Forest24
You missed out Asthma. Also the valuations are not mine. It was examples given by the CEO and Chairman of Synairgen prior to C-19.
So as you say putting a number on it is impossible. However let’s get the COPD results in next month and see how things go ;-)
Although I would love to share your optimising, but l think valuing Synairgen at 1 billion based on 1 assets that has successful phase 2 results for two indications being COVID-19 and COPD is over-optimistic. Both products will require phase 3 trials before even reaching the market to sell. But putting a accurate valuation on this is difficult especially due to Covid, and until we see how good the results are, we can only speculate a wide range of potential valuations.
Still here DubleD you know I quote the Chairman and CEO. I find them allot more reliable than some of the posts on here. “I didn’t like body language” was an all time classic !
Ghia - I take commission or a performance fee, or a pint when the pubs reopen!!!!
Sharesting and his crowd pleasing posts. Lol
So £3.40 per share would value the company at £506m which is really achievable on the success of COPD trials alone ( not my words, words of the chairman and CEO last year).
I personally think if C-19 and COPD come good you could easily double it. Again given Richards comments last year on a interview filmed and published, drugs with a wide reach can go for £1billion up to £3billion.
So I know we are way ahead of ourselves here, but the upside is significant on strong results.
DubleD ,
What was the sp at the beginning of this trial ?
It's not a milestone until the results are out
Deal3r - You've just made us all another £1.20 /share better off!!
Just re-read it and yes the wording is as you suggest a rise of up to 240p ontop of the 120p.
More that just success the price will depend on the take up in the USA the price differences are huge. Plus a bigger market.
Is it me or have I been reading the FinnCap note wrong.
I thought it was £1.20 price target and a rise of £2.40 from there on the successful out come of the trial. - £3.60.
Nolupus - your post is not exactly true. Weve passed through a fair bit of the regulatory process in the last few month. No dramas. But the sp has done nothing but fallen. It now looks like nothing will move this up other than a successful (whatever that means) trial outcome.
I wasn’t planning on being in for the results. Was hoping for a rise into them. Looks like I got it wrong. And it also Looks like some of us are gonna need a decent trial result to get our dosh back.
Amen to that sister
Nolupus - Well said. It's a journey with P2 trial results being the first pit stop.
The market will always judge the sp in regards to the risk/reward ratio
The more we progress in the regulatory process the more we reduce the risk factor
The next milestones for the SP
Successful results in the P2 trials
Pharma partnership/ licensing agreement
For P3's
Until then , all we can do is hope and pray..
Eyes to the sky but feet on the ground :-)
Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst , is always my advice .....
Dave I should have said i'd be happy with that for starters.
If covid trials are successful I couldn’t put a price on what this share could be with the global demand. This would probably be the multi bagger of 2020 BUT there is always risk so dyor. I’m happy to take that chance...
i would definatly be happier sat at £2.40 than the current share price for sure.
One would have to wait till the end of P3 trials to fix any price targets , imo
Until then the market will fix the price on chances of success :-)
Sid - I think you have to look beyond Covid and to the use of SNG as a first port of call for a multitude of viral issues. I would not know where to start with a valuation and personally I would be very happy to achieve the fincapp £2.40 target.
Once we have trial data we might then be able to start quantifying the size of the market for SNG and speculate.
Is SNG worth 1 bn? When drug proven to combat covid_19?
jobloggs
31.03.20220
https://www.finncap.com/news-events/finncap-research-company-notes-31-march-2020
Hi Jo - Finncap are suggesting £2.40 on successful trial results for Covid. Which yields a market cap approximately £330Mil and a 5x return on investment at todays price, not many would complain at that.
If this drug eventually makes it to market you could be talking valuations £1bil+ but you would have to see this journey through to its conclusion.