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Bounced nowow
Jamrock, if your investment strategy is predicated on the signals emanating from Britishbulls.com then I strongly suggest you have a re-think on your investment here, or any other value stock that requires patience and conviction in the fundamentals. Unless, of course, you’re a Day Trader? In which case, and as you probably know, time is never on your side. And no matter how much time you spend trying to decipher intricate patterns and strategies, the odds of being correct are notably slim.
Recent research by the FT's market team revealed that even the most skilled professional Day Traders were correct only 47% of the time, while average traders fared even worse at 6.5%.
By the way, and just in case you were unaware, the aforementioned site is commonly referred to as ‘British bull***t across most brokerage houses for its staggering inaccuracy. And Zak Mir’s daily ‘pearls of wisdom’ is not far behind that.
As for me, I have, and always will be, a Value Investor. And for a good part of my 25 years in the game, and working for a few start-up brokerage houses in that time, I have largely done well on this strategy.
Remember, risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.
And in the realm of AIM investing, conviction can be a double-edged sword. Leverage it properly, and it becomes your strongest ally, leading you to investments that can alter your financial course. Misuse it, and you can find yourself drowning in a sea of losses.
Thus, the Value Investor's biggest adversary isn't the unpredictable market, but rather their own reflection. The fear, greed, doubt, and impatience it mirrors can be more detrimental than any bearish market trend. That's why mastering the ability to hold firm to high-conviction investments is crucial.
Howard Stanley Marks, the serial value investor, provides an essential nugget of wisdom here; In an era where social media often spreads baseless rumours or inaccurate assessments of stocks, it's easy to be swayed by public opinion. However, a true conviction investment is one where you have an unshakeable belief in your position, even when the consensus is against you.
Jamrock, do you have an unshakeable belief in the fundamentals (of Sondrel)? EVEN WHEN THE SHARE PRICE IS NOT BLUE? If you do, then the noise emanating from Britishbulls, ZM, or any other Day Trading platform, is utterly immaterial. Which means, you don’t need to keep tracking the share price every hour. Just be patient. The fundamentals will eventually come through. However, remember, NOTHING EVER GOES UP IN A STRAIGHT LINE.
AIMHO.
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This is the problem. We don’t know if a bounce is truly the bottom. Usually most bottoms are a double bottom at least before the real bounce
Https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=SND.L
After a promising start this week the British Bulls have today issued a short recommendation which is a bit worrying. Shame because I really hoped we’d be above 5p by now.
Thanks for your reply. If I could ask Curran is why will there be no facility to sell as with the likes of redx. It's almost purposely trying to wipe out all the small investors.
Longfell, I haven’t decided yet. I already hold shares in three unlisted companies, so I am not unfamiliar with that situation. However, those are pre-listed (i.e. IPOs to come) rather than delisted, so are a bit different. I don’t have any basis on which to judge ROX and Curren by, other than what we have been told. It’s been presented as a fairly low key thing to date (i.e this is what we’re planning and we want an orderly transition) and Curren has seemed a fairly strait-forward chap to me in the video calls he’s done, so I’m hoping we may get the chance to ask him to address it directly before we have to decide. Well, of course, I’m actually hoping we don’t have to decide at all, because another party makes an offer they can’t refuse!
No I do not.
Rox with probably have 75%of the company anyway,(with a few more monthly cash loans and the big placing). They can do what they want. Any existing shareholders will be obliterated. There are ways and means..further dilution etc.
Only consolation is that the directors will probably be obliterated too as Rox will take everything imo.
@Sorcerer, thanks for your insightful posts. I was wondering do you honestly intend to hold these into a delisting? I'm quite concerned by the goings on here. The board seems to be colluding with Roxi here to steal the shares for nothing. Once this is private anything could be done and can you honestly trust them?
Curren has made a balls up of running a public listed company - tech guys often do - has lead the company to the brink and now has little choice but to take what’s on offer. 55p IPO 18 months ago, 3p today and near bust - what a muppet. In return he still has a shareholding and now gets to run his own Sondrel ventures sub - or in other words he’s been offered a role where he can doing techy things without doing any more damage and harm to the grown up proper business. That’s the brutal truth. Rox will turn this around and sell up, for multiples and maybe even vast multiples of its current value…
The puzzle for me is why the principle owners of the company are ceeding control and effectively selling the majority of the company( the exact proportion of the their ownership is increasing with every monthly fundraising as well as the big placing) for such a pittance. Rox is effectively taking ownership for 10m ( approx 100m shares at 10p ( and more besides if they are picking up millions at 3p ish after the company announced a delisting at the same time as a fundraising??????? and thereby trashed the sp ????????
You can see why companies are leaving aim and why trading is much lower than it was with the way they conduct themselves here with no regulation
So as a novice in this share can some explain why it’s struggling to pass 4p with all the positive tone. I have took a small punt here based on !. I truly stumbled on this and only hope all pans out. Am I correct that shares are to be purchased at 10p!.
Thanks Smart Money - you’ve made some very considered posts here over the past couple of days.
The following caught my attention on ROX’s website “Our approach hinges on forming strong partnerships with visionary management teams and co-investors to create substantial value by anticipating disruptive trends in carefully selected fields. Through shared financial interests, we build robust alliances, valuing these relationships as pivotal to our success.”
SND obviously perfectly fits with their strategy, but I also thought the emphasis on partnerships and co-investors was interesting.
I’m still fully invested too and feel there’s a lot going to happen in the coming weeks. Not least the next contract announcement. We know there was at least one more significant US deal in the final stages of negotiation a month or two ago, so that could drop any day now. How is the market going to react when another deal that could be worth $20m to $100m lands?
Take C4X Discovery, Molecular Energies, and Redx Pharma for example; a week after their delisting announcements, the head honchos (Clive Dix, Peter Levine, and Lisa Anson) swooped-in and picked-up stock at ‘fire-sale’ prices, and after unsuspecting private investors lost their shirts through panicked sells. Utterly reprehensible! But that is capitalism for you. And the stocks are now trading significantly higher than their ‘delisting’ trade prices, despite inching closer to delisting. This means that, investors are now prepared to hold privately marking a significant step change in the investment culture.
So private investors are not going to fall for the copper-plated nonsense being spouted by some of these greedy actors who want to steal the business under their noses.
And Sondrel, which is incredibly undervalued across all industry benchmarks, and probably the most undervalued chip maker in Europe, is going to trump all these companies and change the narrative. Watch this space.
And yes, I agree – this is what makes the current situation with SND so interesting.
AIMHO.
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Sorcerer, your description of Sondrel as a business with “market leading capabilities, contracted future revenues of $200m, and a strong sales pipeline in a pivotal growth industry”, is bang on the money.
The company’s ultra-complex chips offer significant scale improvement when it comes to latency, privacy, security, and increased efficiency; making it one of only a tiny handful of companies out there that are able to do this, and which explains why Elon Musk’s brain implant start-up, Neuralink™, called on the company for its expertise in designing its brain chip.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13062751/Tech-minnow-Sondrel-doubles-value-reports-played-key-Elon-Musks-Neuralink-brain-chip.html
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-neuralink-value-tech-chip-stock-trades-ai-brain-2023-6
Now, let’s just think about that for a moment. Why has a $5 billion-capped US biotech sought assistance from an off-the-radar British nano-cap? What kind of expertise does it have that is clearly out of the reach of the thousands of US chip makers accessible to Elon Musk? And what’s the inherent value of this expertise/business?
The answer to those questions is the reason why institutional investors Otus Capital Management (7.28%), Joh. Berenberg, Gossier (4.66%), Herald Investment Management (4.16%), and Lansdowne Partners (4%) are still here, and why an estimated 17% of the stock is currently held by private investors.
But a £3.3m market cap (3.85p per share) simply does not cut it!
Which is why I remain fully invested because, as you rightly put it, there are several possible outcomes here; some pretty spectacular, but none that is likely to value the business anywhere close to where it is today.
And a quick glance at the recent ‘delisting stocks’, and how they have performed since their delisting announcement, paints an interesting picture of a fast-evolving, private investor perception of these stocks. Put simply, nearly all the stocks have staged a strong recovery meaning that, private investors are prioritising value over exploitative ‘engineered fear’ by some greedy actors within those businesses.
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There have been a couple of references on here recently to 10p being a floor for any kind of takeover offer, but I personally think that kind of number is the least likely outcome here.
We already know that ROX want the company to delist, so they have a plan to take the company private that would work very well for them thank you very much. It's not clear what the out-turn for any smaller investors who held onto their shares would be in that situation - they could find themselves squeezed out by ROX and Curren (who would then have close to 75% control) steamrollering through new share issues in a way that disadvantages smaller holders and dilutes them out of the picture. Or, it could simply be that smaller investors are effectively shackled to Rox and Curren until they decide to create an exit event (sale or re-listing), which could be done quite quickly if SND grows as we expect, or it could take 3-5 years or longer. Neither is a very attractive proposition for most small investors, as they either lose most of their money, or have absolutely no control over when they get their money back (although in the latter scenario, they could do very, very, well if there has not been the dilution that investors fear). What we don't know is what ROX and Curren intend, or how much their reputation with smaller investors matters to them (either personally, or commercially).
There is also a further option that has also been suggested - namely that Rox might consider an additional offer to buy out any remaining smaller investors who wish to sell ahead of the proposed delisting. Not sure how likely that is, but it would certainly provide for an 'orderly exit' and would presumably be pretty well received, given where we are today.
And then there's the other possibility - a new player comes in and makes an offer for the whole company. This is what I personally believe the changes to the ROX deal were designed to protect them against, but if it happens, I think we can be pretty certain that it wouldn't be at anywhere near 10p. Why would ROX accept anything like that kind of offer, when all they have to do to make shedloads more than that is take it private and watch the value grow exponentially? But that doesn't mean that they wouldn't be willing to consider an offer (they will likely sell within a few years anyway), it just means that any offer needs to be attractive enough to give them enough of a return to cash in (risk-free) and move on to the next deal. I have no idea what that would be, or which / how many parties might be interested in making a bid, but you'd have to imagine that it would need to be several multiples of 10p to make it more attractive than paying £8.5m for 50% of a business with market leading capabilities, contracted future revenues of $200m and a strong sales pipeline in a pivotal growth industry. That's what makes the current situation with SND so interesting.
Good post there. it would tally up that it would be an U.S. Company that would buy SND. I believe that is why the CEO has stepped down to open another private Company. He will obviously take some custom from SND over a period of time.
Everyday more buys than sell by 4-1 so surely it must break higher at some point if supply and demand is a formula
ROX understand that, it’s only a matter of time before one of the many circling predators makes a move on Sondrel – especially at the current lowly market cap (4p per share) which considerably underrepresents and undervalues the business. So open season it is. Or as our North American brethren aptly put it – Game On!
But word of caution; don’t take your eye off ROX, who are renowned for their ‘surgical’ strikes:
https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/94965/silverbridge-acquired-by-uk-pe-firm-rox-equity-partners
https://itweb.africa/content/DZQ587V8oKJqzXy2
Thus, Sondrel is fast growing into a big pay day for the private equity firm.
Howard Stanley Marks, the serial value investor and founder of the multibillion, wealth management firm Oaktree Capital Management, once opined that:
"All intelligent investing is value investing; acquiring an asset for less than its value means seeing what everyone else sees and thinking what no one else thinks."
AIMHO.
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Avid chartists would’ve spotted the trend line on the Accumulation Distribution Indicator (ADI), for the Sondrel stock, moving steadily upwards. This bullish signal points towards investors actively accumulating stock.
During yesterday’s trading, the ADI rose, indicating that accumulation is taking place with a possibility of an upward break out. To this end, and experienced traders would know this only too well, it’s pure folly to sell in this phase as the MM’s will repeatedly drop the stock (triggering ‘stop losses’ to flush out day traders) to allow them to gather scarce shares, only to release the price back up to its optimal (reflective of supply and demand conditions) point.
That aside, and as indicated in my previous posts, the company’s shares are changing hands at a significant discount to both its Enterprise Value (£10.1m or 11.5p per share) and it’s ROX-underwritten share subscription price of 10p per share. And that’s before we talk about the order book – currently estimated to sit at circa £165m.
For the record, ROX’s key strapline is “Long-term investors in disruptive technologies.” This accurately describes their modus operandi and also helps shareholders understand why they’ve taken a material interest in Sondrel – a company that is targeting a £230bn market, and one that is growing at circa 20% per year.
And only today, TSMC, one of Sondrel’s key strategic partners, advised the market that, first-quarter profits were expected to rise 5% on strong AI chip demand. This is after it received a $11.6 billion grant (a combination of direct funding and loans) to establish an advanced chip manufacturing facility in Phoenix, Arizona.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-first-quarter-profit-expected-rise-5-strong-ai-chip-demand-2024-04-16/
https://www.bobsguide.com/tsmcs-receives-grant-to-leap-into-us-chip-manufacturing/
But I suspect the real attraction here, for ROX, is the company’s unrivalled expertise (130 IC Engineers and a staff retention rate of 95%) in the design and manufacture of ultra-complex chips that has allowed it to sign-up some of the most admired blue-chip brands in the world as it customers – Apple, Google, Sony, Samsung, Tesla, ARM, Siemens, Mercedes-Benz, etc. These companies turn to the Reading-based nano-cap because they want chips that are smaller and more powerful than off-the-shelf varieties, use less energy and stay cooler for longer. And demand is soaring, as technology becomes ever more sophisticated.
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Think we will start to see some moves upwards now
End of June?? I was thinkingnend of week.now that no-one heavy selling
Company received loan from other company, means ,to me, business is viable, will generate cash, so I m expecting a revenue increase, we might hit 9-10 towards end of June, more than likely
Any thoughts for today
Not a problem Wado
L