Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
My calculations as stated were based on an annualization of the last quarter's profit my figure was correct. However, In the last 2 quarters, this has produced a net profit of $9.24m USD. It has done this during higher spot prices than now. Even if you use a 2x this as an indication going forward with no signs of RH rising to $10k immediately it is $18.48m (eps 5.4p) it has $125m in cash USD. It has 263m shares, USD 1.28. Cash per share is 36p. SP is say 70p. 6.29. However, if you want to use much higher spot prices than exist so you get bigger numbers then that's up to you. Currently, right now profit is $15m at these low spot prices. Look back at 2019 for when RH was $4k and see the net profit ($18m) the costs then were $600oz not $1000 maybe read the note from the brokers now downgrading to 110p from 170p as i said. Thanks at least for coming back with something rather than "this is cheap" or "we are so undervalued" the discussion will enable people who don't do this for a living to benefit from the healthy debate and im always looking to improve. I don't read tipster's comments who own those shares themselves, as i am friends with CM another financial journalist in London, i know the ropes.
Annualised EPS is 7p NOT 3.7p!
Adjusting for cash you need to divide 34p by the EPS so 4.8
Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle has a P/E of 3
Rex, Glass manufacturers sold their Rh and found substitutes due to high cost, it's all in JM report in May which created a surplus for 2023 it was posted but overlooked I suppose as it's not fluffy warm nice stuff........ This has 36p in cash the eps on those quarterlies ($3.1m) annualized was 3.7p....... SP - cash ps / eps is cash adjusted 9 not 4.
Profit down 49% from Q3, in Q4 Rh average $6750 now down around $4k, cash balance very healthy, rebound in Rh prices would be welcome.
Doesn't make sense the Rh price so low demand from ice manufacturers is picking up, suggests over supply which from everything I've read it isn't unless there has been a dump from somewhere to reduce prices, at some point that will be worked through with demand forcing prices higher.
Watching for PGM price movement.
Ive read it all now........How exactly do you get cash adjusted 4 on that quarterly profit of $3.1m?
Fantastic news. so undervalued company at this price
Despite the lower basket price still making a healthy profit. Cash adjusted p/e just 4.
Doom and gloom overdone here by certain posters.
Higher production than guidance and great cash flow. We are way undervalued
Thanks bangrak, that's clear. It means their EBITDA in Jul-Sep quoter could print close to zero, unless the metal prices rebound. The costs and capex per quarter are around 25M. They have enough cash for 6 quarters of the severe "bear market".
Isnt one...Prill split is 52% PL 17% PAL 9% RH 5% IR 17% ru and a tiny bit of gold. Spot prices for all the metals are online. This gives the gross basket but SLP has a net basket which is net of a number of costs (mentioned in results) Gross to net i have found to be around 25%. Using today's spots your net basket is around $1047....AIC was $1007...........this is why they are protecting cash. Unless Rh goes up it's not making much, this will be apparent in quarters capturing June onwards when Rh averaged sub 5k. The next quarter to be published is still using $7k rh.
Any idea why the company keeps so high cash reserves over the years? That does not make economic sense to me, especially in the current environment, where there are so many dirty cheap investment opportunities. It could be paid as a dividend, or share buy backs could be increased?
Good morning! Could you please help me to find the history/graph for 4E gross basket price mentioned in quarter report? Thanks!
Wildtiger the net cash per share is 43p even at $4k rh its eps will be 4p so for me 47-52p would be rock bottom. If you think this is cheap just do the maths on TGA COST THS and others...you can get net cash plus 1 year eps now thanks to fear and algorithmic trading bots. For direction watch ETFRHO for the 50-day break then have a look at this.
RH pricing down again but the SP rises once more............
Wildtiger
I do hope that you are wrong as I have a very significant shareholding in this company. However the companies refusal to buy back more shares may indicate that you are accurate with your forecast. Surely it wont go as low as the 40's as they have that amount in cash.
I believe this will go down to the 40s range due to the slowdown in the economy and the forecast earnings doesn't looks that good either. Below 50 would be a good buy
I believe it would be fair to say that the company and its broker knows more about the business than any of us posting on this board. Having said that I find it disconcerting that the company appears to have suspended its buy back operation with the last purchases being made on July 2nd. I was hopeful that with the price falling below 70 pence yesterday that the buy backs would have restarted but that was not the case. It looks likely to me that the company and its broker believes that in the coming weeks that the price will fall further so they are holding off buying back more shares in the company. Perhaps the company sees the future as so bleak that the announcement on July 14th about cancelling shares that were held in treasury may be considered as the end of the current buy back operation.
From the 12 month chart perspective.
slp's on a huge downtrend low.
double bottom aswell
68p,must be hovvering around rock bottom,before a reversal.
similar to jlp and ths
gla
that's when to buy um,when they're rock bottom
Sylvania Pl what a great cash cow it was ... but its time is over!
Correction - cash adjusted P/E is 4 now (not 5)
No the P/E is NOT 15. Even using your figure of 9c for EPS the CASH ADJUSTED EPS is 5, not as low as Simon Thompson's 3 but you can not ignore the net cash of c.$150M
Have a look at the SP last time the basket price was at this level - you might get a shock
Up from $4K now yet the SP drops again, thought the price has bottomed out now but its not made much difference yet
Bangrak
Thank you for your thought provoking posting. I note that Liberum the company broker still maintain that the company should be valued at 170 pence a share. Surely they need to amend that figure in view of recent events and their refusal in recent days to purchase shares for cancellation on behalf of the company at over seventy pence a share. Their refusal is hardly a vote of confidence in the future share price of the company.
The company handed the job of buybacks to the broker, it's their decision when they buy, and they are using an RH forecast of $13.7k for 2024 (200%) which seems very high considering demand/supply/sentiment and direction. The price of RH slid to $4k, profits will be affected, broker stopped buying. The broker says eps 2024 = 17c that why your forecast eps on your subscription site is low/attractive/green, actual eps on $6k rh is 9c......unless there is a change in RH there will be eps downgrades here. If i put $13k in my sheet i get the same eps as the broker. The current eps, therefore, is 15. Cash ps at 43p plus a few year's eps 55-64p might be where the broker buys. Results out the last q soon, $6m q profit, that the new normal.